Victorian State Election

[Platypus]

Well, three weeks to go, ish, until the state election. The debate has just started; Baillieu chose to speak first, and he's doing an awful job. He did provide the framework for the election though-the main issues will be water, health, education, transport, environment and 'excellence'.

Bracks started with a 'fair go'-typical labor. Then a heap of stuff on water, and also highlighting early on safety, environment and experience, and talking about the ALP's sucesses in health and education, and with the state economy.

Basically water seems to be the biggerst issue, but the parties don't really differ that much on it-they both want more, basically. The Liberals won't win this election anyway, but this debate isn't helping them so far. Still, only been the opening statements so far.

[Platypus]

Well, Bracks won by a mile...until the last twenty seconds when he tried to weasel out of declining a second debate, until it got to the stage where Baillieu and the moderator between them asked about 5 times "Is that a yes or a no?". All his advantage evaporated, at least in my eyes, by his attempt at a sly answer to a perfectly simple question.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any polls?

[Platypus]

Basic rundown: There are 88 seats in the lower house, the Legislative Assembly. The Liberals hold 17, the Nationals 7 and there are two independents...the ALP holds 62 seats, after a massive win in 2002, which won therm the upper house, the Legislative Council-that's exceptionally unusual. The ALP will win, although the upper house, which they've significantly amended, is in contention.

Polls are basically worthless, but i'll see what I can find.

[Platypus]

Roy Morgan October 55/45 two-party preferred
Newspoll September/October 54/46 tpp


Roy Morgan also shows a large jump for the Greens in first preference votes. Also, the Liberal and National Parties are not in coalition in Victoria, and have a quite ugly split, so tpp isn't as effective as normal.

[Platypus]

There was a poll a couple of days ago saying the Liberals would win 7 seats off Labor. That'd reduce Labor to 55 of the 82 seats

[Platypus]

So who else is getting heaps of ads up the top talking about the Liberal party's climate change views, and linking to YouTube?

Is it just for Australians, or is anyone else getting them? There seems to be a lot of ads up there for aussie sites, so i'm guessing it's just us?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ah yet another election where the opposition is so useless that it's a moot point to even care what happens.

[Platypus]

Kinda. The ads are really, really negative as well, especially the ALP's...practically all of them are anti-Baillieu.

One relates to the school closures under Kennett. The ad basically says Baillieu, as President of the state Liberal Party, supported the closures, and then asks, 'Why wouldn't he? His real estate agency sold many of the schools'.

I'm hearing one on the radio right now: "How often would Mr. Baillieu have to leave cabinet because of conflict of interest with his share portfolio? Health issues: He has a stake in 3 healthcare providers. Economic decisions: He has a stake in 5 banks. Environmental decisions: He has a stake in 7 mining companies-and a logging company. Don't risk the Liberals..."

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't see the point in going so negative. Bracks had no chance of losing. In NSW it's actually entertaining - both Labor and the Libs have made themselves so repugnant over the last week it's hillarious.

[Platypus]

well, everyone thought the Libs had no chance of losing in 1999, so maybe Labor are just being careful...

Also, the new, improved (?) leg. council is up for grabs. Here's hoping the Liberals win the balance of power there, with a significant ALP majority in the assembly.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Jesus Hugh... the sig... BLIND BLIND - I'M BLINDED!!!

[Platypus]

I'll change it just for you.

I've also written an ode to everyone's favourite saucy Senator, Helen Coonan:

Helen
won't you tell me your name
i've been waiting here for hours
in the garden by the flowers
you're so shy
so just open your eyes
the boys all form a line
to be written out in time
a long, long, long, long time ago

emergency
i think i'm falling apart
emergency
i think i am losing the fight
and i don't know if i can do it
i don't know if i can try
i don't know if anyone asked me the reason i lied
she sighed

Helen
is Pete your new best friend?
one day it will end, you know it will
you're so shy
so just let it fall apart
let it stumble in the dark
with the razors in your heart
a long, long, long, long time ago

emergency
i think i'm falling apart
emergency
i think i am losing the fight
and i don't know if i can do it
i don't know if i can try
i don't know if anyone asked me the reason i lied
she sighed

emergency
i think i'm falling apart
emergency
i think i am losing the fight
and i don't know if i can do it
i don't know if i can try
i don't know if anyone asked me the reason i lied
she sighed

Oh, Helen. Je t'aime.

[Platypus]

Labor majorities in all 12 booths used in 2002, ranging from 51.9% at the Victoria University campus at Southbank to 76.5% at the Fishermen's Bend Community Hall in Port Melbourne.

I'll probably be voting in the latter, but i'm working from 7am to 4pm so maybe i'll go somewhere on the way home. Albert Park Primary if it's possible; if not, Albert Park College.

Also, i've worked out my ballot:

Adrian Jackson (Independent) (Bit of a local legend)
Stratos Pavlis (People Power)
John Thwaites (Australian Labor Party) (Deputy Premier)
Clive Smith (Liberal Party of Australia)
John Middleton (Australian Greens)
Sam Robinson (Family First Party)
David Reece (Citizen's Electoral Council)

[Platypus]

Well, it's voting day. I'll head off to cast my ballot in about half an hour. I'm working from midday, theoretically until 10 or so, but i'm trying to weasel my way out of it and finish about 6.

[Platypus]

Back.

My ballot for the Leg. Assembly:

1. Adrian Jackson (Independent)
2. Stratos Pavlis (Family First)
3. John Thwaites (Australian Labor Party)
4. John Middleton (Australian Greens)
5. Clive Smith (Liberal Party of Australia)
6. Sam Robertson (Family First)
7. David Reece (Citizen's Electoral Council)

For the Leg. Council:

1-2-3 for the Australian Democrats; 4-5 for People Power. With the rest, I voted from the bottom of their list, ie their fifth placement rather then their first, doing the bottom three, then the top two later. So if it was, like the Greens,

PENNICUIK, Sue
WELSH, Heather
WALFORD, Ray
PILCHER, Clare
PUSZKA, Teresa

I went Puszka 12 or something, Pilcher 13, Walford 14; and then came back to the Greens for Welsh 21 and Pennicuik 22.

[Platypus]

Well, the ALP has won. Baillieu has just officially conceded...it'd be funnier if he didn't the Liberals only had a 2% swing to them and a three seat gain.

The ABC currently predicts ALP 48, Liberal 28, Other 1 Doubtful 11.

[Platypus]

Quick question: in gaining seats, but still being thumped, did the Liberals 'win' this election or 'lose' it?

[Platypus]

Current figures show the ALP on 44% of the first preference vote; the Liberals on only 33%. Ouch.

Greens about 9%, Nationals on 6%, Family First on 4%, Others on 3%

[Platypus]

Overall swings +4.3 Family First, +1 National, +0.1 Green, -1.1 Liberal, -3.8 Labor

Family First is of course a 'brand new' party. Robert Doyle (ex Lib leader) is saying it's people from ALP going to FF, but I personally think it's an ALP to Liberal switch folowed by a Liberal to FFP switch-preferences will reveal which is closer to the truth.

[Platypus]

Upper House: 17 Labor, 14 Liberal, 1 National, 1 Green, with 7 in doubt, expected 19-14-3-4.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Over 4% for Family First - YUCK.

If they had gone backwards then Libs were flogged - but they picked up 3 seats but that 11% PV disparity is shocking.

[Platypus]

I've been convinced that the Australian governmental system has now reached a very firm point-state and territories vote Labor, and will generally continue to do so for at least the next ten years; federally we generally vote Liberal. There will be exceptions, but basically this is the new governmental order down here. The ALP have won 20 consecutive state and territory elections now.

Seriously, 20 in a row. Can you imagine that happening in any other genuinely two-party country?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How about "no"?

Strange situation though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I just find it so strange that NO opposition has been able to gain traction - surely we are not that content.