Victorian State Election

[Colin]

Seriously, 20 in a row. Can you imagine that happening in any other genuinely two-party country?

I'm guessing Utah, Idaho and places like Massachusetts have had a long reign for their majority parties in the legislature. It's not comparing apples to apples since these states don't have parliamentary systems but it does give you another example.

Come back in 20 years and I bet Labour will have yet to lose a Welsh Assembly election.

[Carey]

I just find it so strange that NO opposition has been able to gain traction - surely we are not that content.

It depends what government it is. Some of the state's governments as well as the federal government stay in power due to poorly run oppositions. Does one actually believe someone like Kim Beazley would ever be PM?

Other problem is this late trend of opposition leaders to step down as soon as they lose an election. Historically, party leaders have lost an election before they have won one.

In some cases, the Premier actually is popular, like here in SA. Here, people (left, centre and some right) really like Mike Rann. The opposition leader Iain Evans is dull and uncharismatic. He seems older than the Premier, despite being 7 years younger! He is unknown, and a bit too conservative for this state. He is basically a clone of the last opposition leader - Rob Kerin (who was Premier for a few months until the Libs lost government), who lost to Rann in a landslide earlier this year...

[Platypus]

Well, Bracks is aboput as popular as a 7 year Premier can be in Victoria...not terribly. The thing is, the government IS popular. Victorians don't like our Premiers...just look at what happened to Kenett, or Kirner, or Cain, or even Hamer...

[Platypus]

Well, results so far:

First Preference Votes:

ALP   1,112,581     43.52%
LIB      872,721        34.14%
GRN     243,485          9.52%
NAT   137690          5.39%

Albert Park (my seat)
First Round
ALP-Thwaites 42.06%
LIB-Smith 34.2%
GRN-Middleton 18.50%
PPW-Pavlis 2.35%
IND-Jackson 1.26%
FFP-Robertson 0.95%
CEC-Reece 0.69%

TPP 60.04% for Thwaites over Smith.

Upper House (where the results get a little more interesting):

Southern Metropolitan:

Quotas:
2 full quotas:
Liberal Party

1 full quota:
Australian Labor Party

Partial quotas:
Australian Greens 0.94
Australian Labor Party 0.90
Liberal Party of Australia 0.76
Family First 0.13
Australian Democrats 0.10
People Power 0.08
Democratic Labor Party 0.06
Recreational Environment Group 0.02
Ungrouped 0.00

Liberal 2, Labor 1, 2 depending on preferences, probably Greens and ALP.

Northern Metropolitan:
3 full quotas
Australian Labor Party

1 full quota
Liberal Party of Australia

Partial quotas:
Australian Greens 0.97
Liberal Party of Australia 0.39
Democratic Labor Party 0.29 (their leading candidate was my English teacher's father)
Family First 0.16
Australian Democrats 0.07
People Power 0.06
Australian Labor Party 0.04
Group D (I believe something about immigration) 0.02

Labor 3, Liberal 1 and almost certainly Greens 1

Southeastern Metropolitan:
3 full quotas
Australian Labor Party

1 full quota
Liberal Party of Australia

Partial quotas:
Liberal Party of Australia 0.99
Australian Greens 0.42
Family First 0.31
Australian Democrats 0.08
Australian Labor Party 0.05
Democratic Labor Party 0.05
Christian Democratic Party 0.04
People Power 0.04
Group E (?) 0.03

3 Labor and almost certainly 2 Liberal

Western Metropolitan:
3 full quotas
Australian Labor Party

1 full quota
Liberal Party of Australia

Partial quotas:
Australian Labor Party 0.56
Australian Greens 0.55
Liberal Party of Australia 0.47
Family First 0.24
People Power 0.07
Australian Democrats 0.06
Democratic Labor Party 0.06

3 ALP, 1 Liberal, with preferences probably giving the ALP the 5th seat

Eastern Metropolitan
2 full quotas
Australian Labor Party
Liberal Party of Australia

Partial quotas:
Liberal Party of Australia 0.70
Australian Greens 0.62
Family First 0.26
Australian Labor Party 0.18
Australian Democrats 0.08
Democratic Labor Party 0.08
People Power 0.07

2 Lib, 2 Lab. 5th up for grabs, probably Liberals or Greens after preferences, i'm guessing Liberals.

Western Victoria:
2 full quotas
Australian Labor Party
Liberal Party of Australia

Partial quotas:
Australian Labor Party 0.55
Australian Greens 0.49
The Nationals 0.34
Family First 0.24
Democratic Labor Party 0.15
Liberal Party of Australia 0.12
Country Alliance 0.05
People Power 0.04
Socialist Alliance 0.02
Ungrouped 0.00

2 ALP, 2 Liberal, and 1 undetermined, probably Labor after preferences...shows the power of Geelong and the Goldfields more then anything.

Northern Victoria:
1 full quota
Australian Labor Party
Liberal Party of Australia
The Nationals

Partial quotas:
Australian Labor Party 0.80
Liberal Party of Australia 0.72
Australian Greens 0.41
The Nationals 0.31
Family First 0.22
Country Alliance 0.14
Group E (I believe it's something to do with water. The lead candidate is a celebrity chef) 0.13
Democratic Labor Party 0.12
Group H (?) 0.07
People Power 0.04
Christian Democratic Party 0.03

So, 1 each for the Libs, Labor and the Nationals; with the remaining two places going to Labor and the Liberals most likely after preferences.

Eastern Victoria:
2 full quotas
Australian Labor Party
Liberal Party of Victoria

Partial quotas:
The Nationals 0.58
Australian Greens 0.54
Liberal party of Australia 0.28
Family First 0.27
Australian Labor Party 0.12
Democratic Labor Party 0.07
People Power 0.06
Country Alliance 0.04
Group F (?) 0.03
Christian Democratic Party 0.02

2 Liberals, 2 Labor. Fifth spot after preferences is a three way tie between The Nationals, the Greens and People Power....there were a lot of odd preference deals over there. I think it'll be the Nats.

Of course, these figures are not final.

Current tally:

ALP-17 full quotas. My prediction is for another 4 after preferences, giving them control of the Legislative ouncil as well as the Assembly, with 21 members.

Liberal Party-12 full quotas. 3 more after preferences for a total of 15 members.

The Nationals-1 full quota. 1 more after preferences for a total of 2, and a coalition total of 17.

Australian Greens-0 full quotas. I guess 2 after preferences.

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