House Race Predictions from OKstate

[okstate]

THE REPUBLICANS....

Likely Dem:

1. AZ-08 (OPEN; Kolbe) - not being contested
2. IN-08 (Hostettler) - again, almost no money being spent here
3. PA-10 (Sherwood)
4. CO-07 (OPEN; Beauprez) - the DCCC is still spending but the NRCC is not

Lean Dem:

5. IA-01 (OPEN; Nussle)
6. OH-18 (OPEN; Ney)
7. NY-24 (OPEN; Boehlert) - if New York is going to be the site of a wave, this will be the first seat to fall
8. TX-22 (OPEN; DeLay) - despite good polling and plenty of money on her behalf, I just don't see how Sekula-Gibbs is going to beat Lampson with a write-in campaign
9. NC-11 (Taylor)
10. IN-02 (Chocola) - Chocola has definitely closed the gap, but is it enough? I don't think so
11. PA-07 (Weldon)
12. OH-15 (Pryce)
13. FL-16 (OPEN; Foley) - Like TX-22, obviously still being contested, but how will voters select Foley on the ballot, because no matter what, some people won't understand.

Tossup:

14. CT-04 (Shays)
15. NM-01 (Wilson)
16. FL-13 (OPEN; Harris) - Vern Buchanan sucks as a candidate
17. CT-05 (Johnson) - Nancy Johnson has collapsed in polling and party expenditures are reflecting this
18. NH-02 (Bass) - ARG poll out today reeks of desperation internal
19. NY-26 (Reynolds)
20. AZ-05 (Hayworth) - Clearly this one has tightened, and fast
21. PA-06 (Gerlach)
22. IN-09 (Sodrel)
23. IL-06 (OPEN; Hyde)
24. KY-04 (Davis) - Lucas isn't a great campaigner, supposedly
25. VA-02 (Drake)
26. KY-03 (Northup) - A defeat for Northup could signal a wave
27. WI-08 (OPEN; Green)
28. OH-01 (Chabot) - Tough one to read
29. CT-02 (Simmons)
30. WA-08 (Reichert)
31. OH-02 (Schmidt)

Lean Republican

32. MN-06 (OPEN; Kennedy)
33. CA-11 (Pombo) - In way more trouble than anyone thinks
34. FL-22 (Shaw) - Parties spending as much here as anywhere
35. PA-08 (Fitzpatrick)
36. KS-02 (Ryun) - Definitely could be a surprise on election night
37. NY-25 (Walsh) - After Reynolds and NY-24, this is the one the NRCC is most worried about
38. CO-04 (Musgrave) - Despite polling lead, both parties still spending massively here
39. ID-01 (OPEN; Otter) - Two polls now show Sali (R) in serious trouble
40. NY-20 (Sweeney)
41. NV-03 (Porter)
42. NE-03 (OPEN; Osborne) - Kleeb (D) has the big MO
43. MN-01 (Gutknecht)
44. WY-AL (Cubin)
45. NV-02 (OPEN; Gibbons)
46. NJ-07 (Ferguson)
47. NY-29 (Kuhl)

Likely Republican

48. PA-04 (Hart) - Both parties are still spending here
49. CA-04 (Doolittle)
50. NC-08 (Hayes)
51. WA-05 (McMorris) - The DCCC has started spending here
52. KY-02 (Lewis) - This has definite upset potential
53. NH-01 (Bradley)
54. CO-05 (OPEN; Hefley) - Just a bit too GOP for the Dems to pull off the upset
55. NY-19 (Kelly)
56. IL-10 (Kirk) - The Dems are spending here on mailers. It might get close
57. OH-12 (Tiberi)
58. AZ-01 (Renzi)
59. IN-03 (Souder) - Will fall only if Chocola, Hostettler, and Sodrel all somehow lose big
60. TX-23 (Bonilla) - May go to a runoff
61. NY-03 (King)
62. MI-07 (OPEN; Schwarz)
63. FL-08 (Keller)
64. VA-10 (Wolf)
65. FL-09 (OPEN; Bilirakis)
66. WV-02 (Capito)

THE DEMOCRATS...

Tossup:

1. GA-12 (Barrow) - This is just about the only legit shot at a pickup the Republicans have

Lean Democratic:

2. IL-08 (Bean)
3. GA-08 (Marshall)

Likely Democratic:

4. IN-07 (Carson)
5. VT-AL (OPEN; Sanders)
6. WV-01 (Mollohan)
7. IA-03 (Boswell)
8. TX-17 (Edwards) - Only on the list because a little money is still here

[okstate]

Final Predictions:

Democratic pickups:

1-21, 24, 26-28, 31, 33, 36, 39-40 (in my original post) - 30 seats total

Republican pickups:

NONE

[Torie]

Great list. Very "nuanced," and I can see where you are going with it. I will mark you down as antiguv2 or antiguv3, since Sam Spade is also out there.  The amazing thing about this election is that everybody is playing the game so well, when so many played it so poorly when it came to the House in 2002.  Back then I could shine without breaking a sweat. Now I am totally lapped, and just so yesterday.

And there you have it.

[Sam Spade]

Great list. Very "nuanced," and I can see where you are going with it. I will mark you down as antiguv2 or antiguv3, since Sam Spade is also out there.  The amazing thing about this election is that everybody is playing the game so well, when so many played it so poorly when it came to the House in 2002.  Back then I could shine without breaking a sweat. Now I am totally lapped, and just so yesterday.

And there you have it.

I wouldn't exactly say that.  Your Senate prediction is "unique" and one I would have made myself if I had the guts to.  It just has the feeling of being "right" in such a weird year as this one has been.

Btw, okstate, your list is excellent.  As usual, I doubt I get my prediction list done before Monday night.  There's still a lot of info I'm taking in and trying to distill.