Kerry leads by 8% in New Jersey

[The Vorlon]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11538.xml

Kerry +8 in the "Garden State"

Kerry 49
Bush 41

Lead is 6% with Nader on the question

Public Opinion Strategis had it 49%/42% so these two polls agree very very closely

I think this should end all this fairly silly talk of Bush taking a run at Jersey.

If this was a "little" state with cheap media, maybe Bush might take a run.

New Jersey is a weird state media wise, other than a bit of cable, some radio, and a few newspapers, there really is no "New Jersey" media per se, it's all spillage from New York and Philadelphia.

New York media is insanely expensive, and to take a run at Jersey, Bush would have to buy New York media time..

Ain't Gonna happen....

[Keystone Phil]

Some of the media that Bush buys in Pennsylvania will be seen by NJ voters.

[zachman]

Some of the media that Bush buys in Pennsylvania will be seen by NJ voters.

I don't believe campaign commercials will make as much of an impact as the national news, but true NJ will get tapped with campaign ads. I think Bush will get 42-44% in NJ, which is a strong gain given the state's trends.

[millwx]

I think you're all right... must be the independent in me coming through  That is, as Keystone Phil stated, some of those PA ad buys will hit NJ.  And Bush should do reasonably well in the state.  Nonetheless, the largest population mass is in the northeast of the state... not likely to catch the PA ads.  So, The Vorlon is also right, NJ is probably a pipe dream for Bush.  The best he can do is hope to tighten it enough to force Kerry to waste time/effort/money there... much like Kerry may try to do in NC by tapping Edwards as VP... NC will still very likely go to Bush, but he'd need to pay it some attention just to be sure.  IMO, that's the best Bush can hope for in NJ... force Kerry to defend, just in case.

[The Vorlon]

Some of the media that Bush buys in Pennsylvania will be seen by NJ voters.

it's all spillage from New York and Philadelphia.

Philadelphia = part of Pennsylvania (Unless they have held a referendum in the "T" I have not heard about..)

[struct310]

If Kerry only wins by 8% in New Jersey then Bush should win the popular vote in the country.

[bullmoose88]

Yeah...he'd buy in the philly market...Northern Jersey outside of the immediate NYC burbs, leans republican (well the moderate type) anyways...its those southern counties Bush needs inroads in (burlington, a bigger margin in Atlantic)...

he could kill two birds with the same stone...the philly burbs...and south jersey...(maybe if its close enough then he puts an ad or two in the NYC market)...

but I think thats contingent on how well he's polling in SE PA...if the games over there....he's not gonna waste money there...and south jersey.

[classical liberal]

North Jersey is moving left.  Sommerset was a tossup in 2000, and will probably go Kerry this time.  Bush 1 took Morris at +37, Bush 2 got +11 last time.  Hunterdon was Bush 1 +40 and Bush 2 +15.  Sussex went from Bush 1 +45 to Bush 2 +15.  Warren went from Bush 1 +20 to Bush 2 +10.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Yeah...he'd buy in the philly market...Northern Jersey outside of the immediate NYC burbs, leans republican (well the moderate type) anyways...its those southern counties Bush needs inroads in (burlington, a bigger margin in Atlantic)...

he could kill two birds with the same stone...the philly burbs...and south jersey...(maybe if its close enough then he puts an ad or two in the NYC market)...

but I think thats contingent on how well he's polling in SE PA...if the games over there....he's not gonna waste money there...and south jersey.

Bush is wasting his time in the Philadelphia media market.  Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester Cos will go heavily for Kerry as will Southeast PA.  The local media (Inquirer/DN) has not been kind to Bush at all.  The murders of 2 local contractors practically killed his chances here to gain any ground.  Bush can spend his money here if he wants, but this will give Kerry an opportunity to flank him in VA, NC, NV, and AZ which will detract from Bush.  

[bullmoose88]

Yeah...he'd buy in the philly market...Northern Jersey outside of the immediate NYC burbs, leans republican (well the moderate type) anyways...its those southern counties Bush needs inroads in (burlington, a bigger margin in Atlantic)...

he could kill two birds with the same stone...the philly burbs...and south jersey...(maybe if its close enough then he puts an ad or two in the NYC market)...

but I think thats contingent on how well he's polling in SE PA...if the games over there....he's not gonna waste money there...and south jersey.

Bush is wasting his time in the Philadelphia media market.  Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester Cos will go heavily for Kerry as will Southeast PA.  The local media (Inquirer/DN) has not been kind to Bush at all.  The murders of 2 local contractors practically killed his chances here to gain any ground.  Bush can spend his money here if he wants, but this will give Kerry an opportunity to flank him in VA, NC, NV, and AZ which will detract from Bush.  

I don't even think Bush is looking for an outright victory in the Philly burbs man...as long as he can close the gap some...with the smaller margin, he might be able to run up the score in the T and get some more votes out of metro pittsburgh...that seems to be his strategy.

Of course, if he repeats his 2000 performance in the Southeast...its over here. Too big of a margin to overcome. Having Specter and not Toomey helps though.

At the end of the day...Kerry 50 Bush 48 Nader 2.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Yeah...he'd buy in the philly market...Northern Jersey outside of the immediate NYC burbs, leans republican (well the moderate type) anyways...its those southern counties Bush needs inroads in (burlington, a bigger margin in Atlantic)...

he could kill two birds with the same stone...the philly burbs...and south jersey...(maybe if its close enough then he puts an ad or two in the NYC market)...

but I think thats contingent on how well he's polling in SE PA...if the games over there....he's not gonna waste money there...and south jersey.

Bush is wasting his time in the Philadelphia media market.  Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester Cos will go heavily for Kerry as will Southeast PA.  The local media (Inquirer/DN) has not been kind to Bush at all.  The murders of 2 local contractors practically killed his chances here to gain any ground.  Bush can spend his money here if he wants, but this will give Kerry an opportunity to flank him in VA, NC, NV, and AZ which will detract from Bush.  

I don't even think Bush is looking for an outright victory in the Philly burbs man...as long as he can close the gap some...with the smaller margin, he might be able to run up the score in the T and get some more votes out of metro pittsburgh...that seems to be his strategy.

Of course, if he repeats his 2000 performance in the Southeast...its over here. Too big of a margin to overcome. Having Specter and not Toomey helps though.

At the end of the day...Kerry 50 Bush 48 Nader 2.

Good point.  One thing I realized with Philly area voters is the Inquirer and Daily News mean more than advertsing here at least in my opinion.  Another thing you forgot in Pittsburgh is Teresa HEINZ-Kerry.  That should play well out there and I think he'll do a lot better out there than Gore did last time and I think the SE will go Kerry better than Gore got last time as well.  Bush better have a A-1 machine in the "T' to even come close.  My prediction:

Kerry: 53%
Bush: 45%
Nader/other: 2%

[Smash255]

I live in Southern New Jersey near Atlantic City and we get plenty of Bush ads here. I'm watching one right now. The Northern part of the state should get any ads being played on New York stations.

Other than the Natl ads their isn't that many ads in NYC media market.  Reasons well NY is a very safe Democratic state and the cost of ads is too expensive to run ads just fr North Jersey

[bullmoose88]

Yeah...he'd buy in the philly market...Northern Jersey outside of the immediate NYC burbs, leans republican (well the moderate type) anyways...its those southern counties Bush needs inroads in (burlington, a bigger margin in Atlantic)...

he could kill two birds with the same stone...the philly burbs...and south jersey...(maybe if its close enough then he puts an ad or two in the NYC market)...

but I think thats contingent on how well he's polling in SE PA...if the games over there....he's not gonna waste money there...and south jersey.

Bush is wasting his time in the Philadelphia media market.  Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester Cos will go heavily for Kerry as will Southeast PA.  The local media (Inquirer/DN) has not been kind to Bush at all.  The murders of 2 local contractors practically killed his chances here to gain any ground.  Bush can spend his money here if he wants, but this will give Kerry an opportunity to flank him in VA, NC, NV, and AZ which will detract from Bush.  

I don't even think Bush is looking for an outright victory in the Philly burbs man...as long as he can close the gap some...with the smaller margin, he might be able to run up the score in the T and get some more votes out of metro pittsburgh...that seems to be his strategy.

Of course, if he repeats his 2000 performance in the Southeast...its over here. Too big of a margin to overcome. Having Specter and not Toomey helps though.

At the end of the day...Kerry 50 Bush 48 Nader 2.

Good point.  One thing I realized with Philly area voters is the Inquirer and Daily News mean more than advertsing here at least in my opinion.  Another thing you forgot in Pittsburgh is Teresa HEINZ-Kerry.  That should play well out there and I think he'll do a lot better out there than Gore did last time and I think the SE will go Kerry better than Gore got last time as well.  Bush better have a A-1 machine in the "T' to even come close.  My prediction:

Kerry: 53%
Bush: 45%
Nader/other: 2%

I wonder if super's got any info on how Heinz-Kerry is being recieved due to her switch.

[phillies]

Local media: Cable

It's cheap.  There's a lot of it.  You can't always target one _town_ at a time, but one _state_ is straightforward, so while it is true that NJ has few (1?) broadcast TV stations of significance, you can now do what used to be challenging.

[Akno21]

TV ads can definitly spill over into other states. I know I've seen Virginia campaign ads on Washington TV channels even though I live in Maryland.

Bush does have enough money though to run expensive ads in the NYC city market.

[bullmoose88]

though he'd be better off trying to chip away at Kerry's lead in SE PA...and letting the Spillage help him a little in South Jersey.

If it helps him enough, then putting money into NYC for North Jersey becomes Viable.

Not likely though.

[Akno21]

Bush has a better chance of winning in PA, which is a must-win for Kerry, than in NJ. Plus, PA is worth 6 more EV's.

[Shira]

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x11538.xml

" Bush taking a run at Jersey"

Bush will get in NJ 8.5% below his national number

[Shira]

If Kerry only wins by 8% in New Jersey then Bush should win the popular vote in the country.

There will be a 16% gap between Kerry and Bush

[struct310]

Not according to the multiple polls taken for NJ.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

though he'd be better off trying to chip away at Kerry's lead in SE PA...and letting the Spillage help him a little in South Jersey.

If it helps him enough, then putting money into NYC for North Jersey becomes Viable.

Not likely though.

Bush payment per vote in SE Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey if given as a ratio would be extremely high here.  In other words, his campaign is not very dollar efficient here.  I hope Bush keeps spending here, won't help him much.  This is also given the fact that Kerry can spend in near battleground states such as NV, AZ, VA, NC, CO, AR, TN, and LA plus devote to Ohio.  Rendell will deliver Philly and Heinz-Kerry will deliver Pittsburgh.  End of story.

[© Tweed the Younger]

There will be a 16% gap between Kerry and Bush

More like 8-12%.  All polls seem to signify that that will be the gap.