Democrats and the Deep South

[nclib]

As heartening as it is that Democrats are competitive in races in ultra-conservative states such as Idaho, Wyoming, and Nebraska, the lone disappointment is that even with a wave, they probably won't capture a single House, Senate, or Gubernatorial seat from the GOP anywhere in the Deep South (i.e. LA, MS, AL, GA, SC).

I realize that the GOP-held Deep South seats are non-competitive on the Presidential level (Bush took 58+% in all but one of the GOP-held House seats in the Deep South). But then again, Dems are competitive in many 58+% Bush districts in other parts of the country.

Were the Deep South seats ignored, or is the wave simply not reaching the Deep South?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The main problem the Democrats have in the Deep South (at House level) is racial gerrymandering.

[Conan]

We hold plenty of seats there.
LA - 2 out of 7 seats (used to be 3 but Alexander is a traitor)
MS - 2 of 4 seats
AL - 2 out of 7 seats
GA - 6 of 13 seats
SC - 2 of 6 seats

Plus gerrymandering and Katrina (could have been a competitive race in LA - 7) Formerly Chris John's (D) seat, he's also only 46.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, the Democrats do indeed still hold a decent number of seats in the Deep South.
But that wasn't what Nclib was talking about; gaining and holding are two different things.

[Conan]

Yes, the Democrats do indeed still hold a decent number of seats in the Deep South.
But that wasn't what Nclib was talking about; gaining and holding are two different things.

I know, the candidate recruitment could have been better. But there are other obsticals.

[Jacobtm]

The deep south is Republicanville for a while, Democrats should worry about the West. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada are way better targets than South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama.

[Democratic Hawk]

Now that GA and SC have GOP legislatures is it likely that AL, LA and MS will follow suit any time soon?

As for congressional districts, are there no moderate populist conservative or populist-leaning conservative Democrats capable of taking those libertarian-leaning conservative Republicans out any more?

Dave

[MarkWarner08]

This election will accentuate the geographic polarization of American Politics. The Upper Midwest, the Coastal West and the Northeast are now solidly Democratic. The Rocky Mountain states, the Southwest and the Midwest are the battleground regions.

In 2008, a GOP Presidential Nominee like John McCain may be able to put the Upper Midwest back into contention while holding Dixie, the Plains States and parts of the Southwest.

[RBH]

Hey, Ross Perot didn't do too well in the Deep South.

He did do well in the Mountain West.

I think that some of Ross's old voters are the ones that are crossing over this year.

Once the Democratic Party down in the Deep South figures out a plan that puts daylight between them and the GOP, they'll fare better on the federal level.

[TheresNoMoney]

I'd much rather win in the mountain west states and the southwest than the backwards-thinking Deep South.

[Stranger in a strange land]

If the democrats win enough seats this election in the Northeast, the Rockies, and the Ohio Valley, the Republicans could end up becoming essentially a regional party confined to the south and a few other states like Utah, much as many were predicting would happen to the dems just a few years ago.

[socaldem]

Yeah, I'm kind of disappointed Democrats didn't field a decent challenger in the imminently winnable AL-03 race but with Gov. Riley cruising to reelection, its not the best year for Dems in AL anyway.  I could also see a good Dem potentially winning the Mobile seat.

I'm also sad to see that Dems didnt field a decent challenger in LA-07.  Its going to be very curious to see how post-hurricane Louisiana's congressional map is reconfigured...

In MS and GA, we're pretty much maxed out... and we might lose a seat if Barrow is defeated this year and if, as I hope he does, Marshall challenges Chambliss for Senate in 08. 

And in SC there might be room for one more Dem but not under the current lines. 

Northern Florida, however, if properly districted could support another "deep southern" democrat.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I agree about AL-3 it could be competetive in the right circumstances but Alabama at the moment seems to be very alien to the Democratic party. 

I have heard that Mississippi is becoming more friendly and that the black population is growing so that by 2040 it will be a swing or Democratic-leaning state.  Also in MS if Lott had retired Mike Moore would have run and could have been elected; a lot of it is about the circumstances I think.  In terms of Congressional Districts, Mississippi is actually quite favourable to us considering Gene Taylor represents a CD that voted 68%-31% for Bush in 2004. 

Georgia appears to be moving in a different direction to Alabama and Mississippi but it is becoming more Republican.  The 2004 races represented the lowest amount of support a Democrat candidate has had since 1988 there - Kerry could only convince 41% of Georgians to vote for him.  The state is becoming more suburban, more business-oriented and more Republican dominated.  If Perdue is re-elected solidly this year then I think it demonstrates Chambliss is more or less safe in 2008 as well.

Finally Louisiana is just interesting.  The 2010 redistricting is going to be hard to predict.  In terms of races, I think Mary Landrieu is in good shape for 2008 but it will be an uphill battle - the only question is who will the Republicans run?  There is not an obvious candidate. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd much rather win in the mountain west states and the southwest than the backwards-thinking Deep South.

The Democrats hold, what is it 14?, seats in LA, MS, AL, GA and SC. That's not bad, not bad at all. If there was no racial gerrymandering, they would probably hold a few more seats there now and would certainly have a good chance of gaining a few more this year.

[opebo]

There is no point for the party of California, Massachusetts, Washington, etc. to pursue those benighted subhumans of the deep south.  They simply cannot win there and still maintain their base of educated, reasonable people in the first world states.

[gorkay]

Aren't some of us here guilty of stereotyping the people of the deep South?

[Nym90]

Hopefully in the next redistricting there won't be as much racial gerrymandering. As Al said that would help the Dems win back a few more seats. Sadly the Democrats really can't win in the South without a strong black vote, and many Deep South House seats have a low black percentage due to the current lines.

[Nym90]

Reason why so many black candidates lose in the south:

They represent extremely black and/or liberal inner city districts, which forces them to have an extremely liberal voting record, which is a turnoff to rural southerners.

Without racial gerrymanderering, this would not be a problem. Sure, a few less blacks would be elected to congress, but the quality of the ones elected would be much better.

James

True, plus it would make it easier for moderate Democrats to get elected, and provide an incentive for the Republican candidates to be less conservative as well.

[Frodo]

Now that GA and SC have GOP legislatures is it likely that AL, LA and MS will follow suit any time soon?

That would depend on how liberal and unpopular among conservative and moderately conservative southern voters the (visible) head and symbol of the Democratic Party is.  And there is always the possibility that many of those Democrats who control the legislatures in the states you have mentioned could switch to the Republican Party as their counterparts did in Georgia.  It wouldn't require any effort by the state GOP to oust entrenched Democratic incumbents if those same incumbents decide that is in their best interest to run as Republicans instead of Democrats. 

[nclib]

True (regarding governorships not being ideological), but even then Dems hold only one Governorship in the Deep South (Blanco) and she will likely lose in 2007, and AL, GA, and SC will likley re-elect GOP Governors now and ditto for MS in 2007.

[Frodo]

Now that GA and SC have GOP legislatures is it likely that AL, LA and MS will follow suit any time soon?

Dave

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Would anyone else care to answer his question?