Kerry leads by 8% in New Jersey

[TeePee4Prez]

Yeah...he'd buy in the philly market...Northern Jersey outside of the immediate NYC burbs, leans republican (well the moderate type) anyways...its those southern counties Bush needs inroads in (burlington, a bigger margin in Atlantic)...

he could kill two birds with the same stone...the philly burbs...and south jersey...(maybe if its close enough then he puts an ad or two in the NYC market)...

but I think thats contingent on how well he's polling in SE PA...if the games over there....he's not gonna waste money there...and south jersey.

Bush is wasting his time in the Philadelphia media market.  Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester Cos will go heavily for Kerry as will Southeast PA.  The local media (Inquirer/DN) has not been kind to Bush at all.  The murders of 2 local contractors practically killed his chances here to gain any ground.  Bush can spend his money here if he wants, but this will give Kerry an opportunity to flank him in VA, NC, NV, and AZ which will detract from Bush.  

[TeePee4Prez]

Yeah...he'd buy in the philly market...Northern Jersey outside of the immediate NYC burbs, leans republican (well the moderate type) anyways...its those southern counties Bush needs inroads in (burlington, a bigger margin in Atlantic)...

he could kill two birds with the same stone...the philly burbs...and south jersey...(maybe if its close enough then he puts an ad or two in the NYC market)...

but I think thats contingent on how well he's polling in SE PA...if the games over there....he's not gonna waste money there...and south jersey.

Bush is wasting his time in the Philadelphia media market.  Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester Cos will go heavily for Kerry as will Southeast PA.  The local media (Inquirer/DN) has not been kind to Bush at all.  The murders of 2 local contractors practically killed his chances here to gain any ground.  Bush can spend his money here if he wants, but this will give Kerry an opportunity to flank him in VA, NC, NV, and AZ which will detract from Bush.  

I don't even think Bush is looking for an outright victory in the Philly burbs man...as long as he can close the gap some...with the smaller margin, he might be able to run up the score in the T and get some more votes out of metro pittsburgh...that seems to be his strategy.

Of course, if he repeats his 2000 performance in the Southeast...its over here. Too big of a margin to overcome. Having Specter and not Toomey helps though.

At the end of the day...Kerry 50 Bush 48 Nader 2.

Good point.  One thing I realized with Philly area voters is the Inquirer and Daily News mean more than advertsing here at least in my opinion.  Another thing you forgot in Pittsburgh is Teresa HEINZ-Kerry.  That should play well out there and I think he'll do a lot better out there than Gore did last time and I think the SE will go Kerry better than Gore got last time as well.  Bush better have a A-1 machine in the "T' to even come close.  My prediction:

Kerry: 53%
Bush: 45%
Nader/other: 2%

[TeePee4Prez]

though he'd be better off trying to chip away at Kerry's lead in SE PA...and letting the Spillage help him a little in South Jersey.

If it helps him enough, then putting money into NYC for North Jersey becomes Viable.

Not likely though.

Bush payment per vote in SE Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey if given as a ratio would be extremely high here.  In other words, his campaign is not very dollar efficient here.  I hope Bush keeps spending here, won't help him much.  This is also given the fact that Kerry can spend in near battleground states such as NV, AZ, VA, NC, CO, AR, TN, and LA plus devote to Ohio.  Rendell will deliver Philly and Heinz-Kerry will deliver Pittsburgh.  End of story.