Virginia Senate Race -FINAL PREDICTIONS

[Virginian87]

Sorry I haven't been active for the last two weeks.  With midterms and other distractions at school, I haven't really posted. 

The race is close as hell, and I think it will be Missouri and Virginia (not Tennessee) that represent the Democrats' best hopes for Senate control. 

What are your final predictions regarding this race?

And I don't want someone to type in "Webb/Allen obviously, because he is better" or something stupid like that.  JUSTIFY your predictions, don't base them on blind partisanship.

[SPQR]

Webb by less than .5%
Why?His grow had stopped a bit in October, while in the last 2 weeks a lot of polls have been showing him winning. Still gonna be tight, but he'll win.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Webb. The polling reminds me of Kaine.

[nini2287]

George Allen in a squeaker.  If Webb's going to win, he'll need to do it on the issues.

[MarkWarner08]

Webb: 50%
Allen: 48%
Indy: 2%

[adam]

As of today, I am convinced that a Webb victory is on the horizon.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Webb wins, Allen becomes the biggest moron in politics in recent history, since he managed to take a situation where he had reelection in the bag and still lose.

[Nym90]

I was afraid you might've been the guy who got bodyslammed by Allen's thugs, Virginian.

I say Webb by a hair. Probably won't be called until midnight-1 AM.

[Nym90]

If Webb wins, Allen becomes the biggest moron in politics in recent history, since he managed to take a situation where he had reelection in the bag and still lose.

True. People are talking more about the possibility of the Dems blowing it in Montana, but really an Allen loss would have to be seen as a bigger surprise. No one would've thought a year ago at this time that there was any realistic chance of Allen losing, and even for pretty much all of this year he was looking pretty solid for the most part.

Someone ought to dig up that thread I had from August where I had a poll of who had a better chance of winning, Rick Santorum or Jim Webb. As I recall the vote was about 75 percent for Santorum.

[Virginian87]

I was afraid you might've been the guy who got bodyslammed by Allen's thugs, Virginian.

Are you kidding?  That guy is positively insane.  When I found out who it was (DailyKos blogger and UVA law student Mike Stark), I burst out laughing.  Remember when I was a tracker for Webb in Staunton in August?  Well, this guy showed up to a luncheon hosted by the Staunton Chamber of Commerce, where Allen was giving a speech.  As Allen exited, this guy caught up to him (I was videotaping this all the while) and asked, the the Senator's face, "Have you ever used the word n?".  This was right in front of the reporters and TV cameras crowding Allen.  He was immediately pulled aside by Allen staffers and booted out of the event.  

This guy has ZERO connection to the Webb campaign.  Nobody at the Charlottesville office has even heard of him.  He also has a knack for phrasing questions so that they sound rude.  Instead of asking "could you disclose some of your marital troubles?", he asks "did you ever spit on your first wife?".  Granted the Allen staffers' reaction was way out of line, but then again so was the question.

[Nym90]

I was afraid you might've been the guy who got bodyslammed by Allen's thugs, Virginian.

Are you kidding?  That guy is positively insane.  When I found out who it was (DailyKos blogger and UVA law student Mike Stark), I burst out laughing.  Remember when I was a tracker for Webb in Staunton in August?  Well, this guy showed up to a luncheon hosted by the Staunton Chamber of Commerce, where Allen was giving a speech.  As Allen exited, this guy caught up to him (I was videotaping this all the while) and asked, the the Senator's face, "Have you ever used the word n?".  This was right in front of the reporters and TV cameras crowding Allen.  He was immediately pulled aside by Allen staffers and booted out of the event.  

This guy has ZERO connection to the Webb campaign.  Nobody at the Charlottesville office has even heard of him.  He also has a knack for phrasing questions so that they sound rude.  Instead of asking "could you disclose some of your marital troubles?", he asks "did you ever spit on your first wife?".  Granted the Allen staffers' reaction was way out of line, but then again so was the question.

Well I did say I was afraid it was you. Perhaps I should've made it clearer that the emphasis was on the word afraid in that sentence.

Yeah, the guy is a nut, though it still doesn't justify what was done to him. Sounds like he's just a punk kid looking for attention.

[AuH2O]

Allen and Kilgore are not comparable in any way, aside from stupid campaign strategies. Allen is an incumbent who also was a very popular Governor. A bad GOP year makes this close, but unless Dems really turn out in big numbers Allen will win, narrowly.

Allen 50
Webb 49

[The Dowager Mod]

Allen.

[Eraserhead]

Webb 52%
Allen  48%

It could be even closer though.

[Boris]

George Allen will win by a thin margin.

[Nym90]

True, Frodo, this could go to a recount even possibly. At least the lawyers and the media from Washington won't have to travel far.

[Frodo]

Jim Webb could win with less than a percentage point (at most), though since the election results are likely to be so close we won't know the final result until perhaps late November or early December.  Either way, I'll be content with the knowledge that as of now, George Allen has no chance of even competing for his party's 2008 presidential nomination, and what happens on Tuesday will seal his fate beyond any reasonable doubt. 

[Sam Spade]

Jim Webb could win with less than a percentage point (at most), though since the election results are likely to be so close we won't know the final result until perhaps late November or early December.  Either way, I'll be content with the knowledge that as of now, George Allen has no chance of even competing for his party's 2008 presidential nomination, and what happens on Tuesday will seal his fate beyond any reasonable doubt. 

George Allen not competing for the Republican nomination is a good thing for Republicans, though its not like he would have had any chance of the winning the thing anyway.

[Frodo]

True, Frodo, this could go to a recount even possibly. At least the lawyers and the media from Washington won't have to travel far.

Sorry, I didn't see your reply until after I reposted... 


I am glad though that all my efforts on behalf of Webb's campaign seem to be paying off, and that the hours I have spent volunteering on his behalf, and the $300 I have contributed to his campaign (thus far) have not gone to waste. 

[Nym90]

And how did I know what Frodo was going to type 8 seconds before he posted it, hmmm?

*cues Twilight Zone theme music*

[Nym90]

True, Frodo, this could go to a recount even possibly. At least the lawyers and the media from Washington won't have to travel far.

Sorry, I didn't see your reply until after I reposted... 

It's cool, I assume you must've deleted your post then reposted.

Either that or I do have ESP or the ability to travel through time.

[nlm]

A close race - but I think Webb will win, and by more than 1 or 2 points.

[True Democrat]

It's either going to be a relatively large Allen victory (3 points or so) or a very close race with Webb winning (.5 points).  I just have a gut feeling that the wind will blow in Webb's favor and he'll win.

[WalterMitty]

allen by 2.

[HardRCafé]

It's either going to be a relatively large Allen victory (3 points or so) or a very close race with Webb winning (.5 points).  I just have a gut feeling that the wind will blow in Webb's favor and he'll win.

I think the former:  Allen rebounds by Tuesday.  I do not think Virginia is anti-Semitic enough or enough in favor of kiddie porn to replace him with Webb.