is there any chance...

[WalterMitty]

...republicans maintain control of the house?

[poughies]

yes...... i never have faith in the Democrats.....

[Alcon]

Two days.  A lot could happen, but probably won't.

[Stranger in a strange land]

There's a chance: if conservative repulicans turn out in massive numbers and independents stay home, then they could. Otherwise I don't see how.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

TradeSports puts the odds at less than 20%

[AuH2O]

I think the odds are about 1/3. But of course there is only one actual outcome, we just don't know it yet. I think it's going to be very close, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP held on.

[WalterMitty]

i put it at about 15%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There's a small chance, like if this carefully timed Saddam verdict causes the masses to forget about all of Bush's failures.

[NHPolitico]

National Review's Jim Geraghty has a "good day" scenario where the Democrats pick up 11 seats (and the GOP picks up 3). His "bad day" scenario has a pickup of 25 seats for the Democrats.  So, yes, if the GOP absentee ballot, neighborhood canvassing, phonebanking, etc. operation is robust and GOP voters can write in Sheila's name in TX-22 and vote for Foley in FL-16, then losses could be held to just shy of 15.  NRO seems to be hearing very positive things about the GOP's groundgame already underway-- that it's running just as they had hoped-- and that GOP voters are not demoralized as has been suggested (being very responsive to pleas to vote GOP). 

[Deano963]

...republicans maintain control of the house?

NO.

Stop being such a hack and wake up to reality already. It's getting annoying.

[Deano963]

National Review's Jim Geraghty.......

LOL.

Please do not quote National Review writers in an attempt to make an intelligent argument. Almost all National Review writers are still predicting a Santorum win, so I think that says something about the value of their predictions. That magazine is a right-wing rag and everyone knows it. That would be like myself quoting Al Franken as an authoritative source when making an argument that the Democrats are going to pick up 100 seats.

[AuH2O]

Name a NR writer that's saying Santorum will win.

[Frodo]

This year?  No. 

[Conan]

Nope, we are seeing 20-45 seats pick up.

[WAlib]

There's a small chance, like if this carefully timed Saddam verdict causes the masses to forget about all of Bush's failures.

Still haven't got Bin Laden ... do ya think maybe they've had him on ice, thawing out ready to be exposed in the next two days ... only Rove plan that I can think of that will pull off a (R) victory ...

... actually, it's going to be close ... but the wave is there, big or small.

[NHPolitico]

National Review's Jim Geraghty.......

LOL.

Please do not quote National Review writers in an attempt to make an intelligent argument. Almost all National Review writers are still predicting a Santorum win, so I think that says something about the value of their predictions. That magazine is a right-wing rag and everyone knows it. That would be like myself quoting Al Franken as an authoritative source when making an argument that the Democrats are going to pick up 100 seats.

I'm hearing reports about the GOP GOTV from many other sources. In case I didn't make it clear, I was only mentioning Geraghty as someone who believed there is a chance (which is what this thread is about-- I didn't create the thread!). Further, Geraghty is in the minority about his predictions. I hope that makes things clear.

And, as a footnote, the GOP created cards for the canvassing that depict the Democrat boogeymen (Pelosi, Kennedy, etc.) as who is being elected if the GOP voter doesn't vote for doesn't vote GOP.  They are very serious about making this election a referendum on "San Francisco values" for voters who voted GOP in 2004.  It very well may work.

[Democratic Hawk]

There's always a chance ... but I'd like to think the same chance that the Conservative Party had in the 1997 UK General Election

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

And, as a footnote, the GOP created cards for the canvassing that depict the Democrat boogeymen (Pelosi, Kennedy, etc.) as who is being elected if the GOP voter doesn't vote for doesn't vote GOP.  They are very serious about making this election a referendum on "San Francisco values" for voters who voted GOP in 2004.  It very well may work.

If the Democrats gain control of the House, it will be in no small part thanks to Democratic moderates . Expect a stronger Blue Dog Coalition in a Democratic House, representing conservative-leaning districts, so making it a referendum on "San Francisco values" is fallicious if nothing else

Dave

[Deano963]

And, as a footnote, the GOP created cards for the canvassing that depict the Democrat boogeymen (Pelosi, Kennedy, etc.) as who is being elected if the GOP voter doesn't vote for doesn't vote GOP.  They are very serious about making this election a referendum on "San Francisco values" for voters who voted GOP in 2004.  It very well may work.

LoL!!!

OH NO!!! Not Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy!!!!

Sorry to break it you Politico but if the republicans havent succeeded in making the election a referendum on Pelosi and Kennedy by now (news flash: THEY HAVEN'T), then they're not going to. Not to mention a solid 60% of Americans have never even heard of Pelosi. You are delusional if you think that is going to work. I'ts absolutely hilarious that you just tried to use that as an argument.

Oh, and a footnote for you Politico, I think flyrers and mailers from the Democrats saying that the child-predator-protecting Denny Hastert would remain in power if the GOP holds the House are a going to be a LOT more effective than the republicans' stupid little cards with pictures of Kennedy and a woman nobody knows.

[NHPolitico]

And, as a footnote, the GOP created cards for the canvassing that depict the Democrat boogeymen (Pelosi, Kennedy, etc.) as who is being elected if the GOP voter doesn't vote for doesn't vote GOP.  They are very serious about making this election a referendum on "San Francisco values" for voters who voted GOP in 2004.  It very well may work.

LoL!!!

OH NO!!! Not Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy!!!!

Sorry to break it you Politico but if the republicans havent succeeded in making the election a referendum on Pelosi and Kennedy by now (news flash: THEY HAVEN'T), then they're not going to. Not to mention a solid 60% of Americans have never even heard of Pelosi. You are delusional if you think that is going to work. I'ts absolutely hilarious that you just tried to use that as an argument.

Oh, and a footnote for you Politico, I think flyrers and mailers from the Democrats saying that the child-predator-protecting Denny Hastert would remain in power if the GOP holds the House are a going to be a LOT more effective than the republicans' stupid little cards with pictures of Kennedy and a woman nobody knows.

Hillary's on them, too. Anyway. These cards are being mailed and hand delivered to households who are not swing voters. They are people who the RNC wants to vote on Tuesday because they know how those people will vote. Those kind of voters-- registered GOP voters and people who are indys, but support various right-wing issues-- know exactly what the message is from those cards. We're not talking about reaching Joe Average voter.

[Whacker77]

I'm as conservative as they come and I wish someone could honestly explain to me why GOTV has an effect on the election.  So what if I get a call on the phone to remind me to vote.  On election day in 2000, I got an automated call from Barbara Bush (and not the young cute one) reminding me to vote.  Big damn deal.  I think the Republican GOTV effort is smoke and mirrors.  Enthusiasm and energy drive people to the polls.  That's what we had in 2002 and 2004.

Someone make a cradible case for GOTV.

[Sam Spade]

I'm as conservative as they come and I wish someone could honestly explain to me why GOTV has an effect on the election.  So what if I get a call on the phone to remind me to vote.  On election day in 2000, I got an automated call from Barbara Bush (and not the young cute one) reminding me to vote.  Big damn deal.  I think the Republican GOTV effort is smoke and mirrors.  Enthusiasm and energy drive people to the polls.  That's what we had in 2002 and 2004.

Someone make a cradible case for GOTV.

You're making a credible case for GOTV through your comments here.  The Republican GOTV effort was so absolutely pathetic through the directed mail and the automated call angle that Karl Rove pushed in 2000 that they lost about 2%-3% and a couple of Senate seats in the election to the well-crafted Democratic effort of Donna Shalala.

That's what convinced Rove that they needed to something different and that's where the Ken Mehlman's and Ralph Reed's of the world came in and told Republicans that they needed to have a directed plan that involved real people and direct, personal contact with favorable Republican voters.  You could already see the improvement in 2002 and it essentially equalized the Democrats' operation in 2004.

[NHPolitico]

I'm as conservative as they come and I wish someone could honestly explain to me why GOTV has an effect on the election.  So what if I get a call on the phone to remind me to vote.  On election day in 2000, I got an automated call from Barbara Bush (and not the young cute one) reminding me to vote.  Big damn deal.  I think the Republican GOTV effort is smoke and mirrors.  Enthusiasm and energy drive people to the polls.  That's what we had in 2002 and 2004.

Someone make a cradible case for GOTV.

Because of how aggressive the GOP has been at GOTV this year, early voting is higher than it has been for them and more returned GOP absentee ballots have been received by town clerks.   If you accept the meme that the GOP will struggle on Tuesday because of depressed turnout caused by various things like Foley and whatever else, then the GOTV effort will possibly negate it. It also directly affects the Foley and DeLay open seat races since winning them will require intense mobilization efforts to explain what voters need to do to make sure a Republican is elected to that seat.

And I'm not talking about a recorded call from Barbara Bush. I mean a phone call from someone who lives in your county, maybe your town. Those calls are provably more effective.

[Torie]

...republicans maintain control of the house?

No.

[Lincoln Republican]

...republicans maintain control of the house?

The short answer is NO! 

Dems make gains.  It's only a matter of how big those gains will be.