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Author Topic: RI: Mason-Dixon: Chafee now up one point (46-45)  (Read 3590 times)
okstate
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« on: November 05, 2006, 01:02:47 am »
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http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/politics/15931994.htm
« Last Edit: November 05, 2006, 02:04:03 am by okstate »Logged
Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2006, 01:09:22 am »
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I find this one really hard to believe but even if it is so.. this isn't going to be good enough for Chafee in the most Democratic state in the country.
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okstate
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2006, 01:12:55 am »
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I want to see these other 12 Mason-Dixon polls talked about in the article.

We've probably already seen the results now for Rhode Island, Virginia, Montana, Tennessee and Minnesota. Maybe Florida and Nevada are also included?

So that leaves five states. I bet we see polls from Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and New Jersey.

Very curious about what they find in Missouri and Maryland.

The others I can pretty much guess.
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poughies
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2006, 01:15:38 am »
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the article says that Dems lead... narrowly.... I just cannot believe Rhode Island.... wouldn't it be something if Republicans hold control because of Chafee.....
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2006, 01:19:56 am »
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Just MOE movement, Whitehouse should still win.

Ford on the other hand seems to be toast. What a victory for the DLC there.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2006, 01:20:47 am »
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the article says that Dems lead... narrowly.... I just cannot believe Rhode Island.... wouldn't it be something if Republicans hold control because of Chafee.....

As Boss Tweed said we may be able to woo him to our side with hookers and alchol.
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2006, 01:21:44 am »
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I can't help but worry that the Democratic campaign as a whole is beginnning to fall apart right at the last moment, what with this poll, the Montana race now being shown to be a tie, Maryland still looming over Democrats regarding what black voters will do, Tennessee dropping off the map, and so on.

It was nice while it lasted, at least. Tongue
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poughies
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2006, 01:23:52 am »
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here is a clue... RCp moved Maryland to Tossup.... me thinks they know something........ They also moved RI to lean dem..... they don't have the polls listed yet..... so i think they were tipped off.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2006, 01:25:04 am »
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I can't help but worry that the Democratic campaign as a whole is beginnning to fall apart right at the last moment, what with this poll, the Montana race now being shown to be a tie, Maryland still looming over Democrats regarding what black voters will do, Tennessee dropping off the map, and so on.

It was nice while it lasted, at least. Tongue

It ain't that bad. We knew the odds at taking the Senate were low and they remain low...but we still have a shot.
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2006, 01:29:14 am »
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It ain't that bad. We knew the odds at taking the Senate were low and they remain low...but we still have a shot.

I'm not writing off the Democrats yet, given that they evidently still have a chance, but it's getting smaller, and the new polls aren't exactly very heartening.  I'm going to be very, very disappointed if Montana re-elects Conrad Burns.  The other Republicans I'm not too concerned about if they win, but I can't stand Burns.
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2006, 01:31:04 am »
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I can't help but worry that the Democratic campaign as a whole is beginnning to fall apart right at the last moment, what with this poll, the Montana race now being shown to be a tie, Maryland still looming over Democrats regarding what black voters will do, Tennessee dropping off the map, and so on.

It was nice while it lasted, at least. Tongue

It ain't that bad. We knew the odds at taking the Senate were low and they remain low...but we still have a shot.

Yes, if we win all of the seats that we're favored in, we'll have 51. We just need all of them, and some are kind of tossup, unless we magically win TN or AZ.

We still have maybe 25% odds. The problem is, we really need to run the tables to turn an 18-15 Democratic split into a 24-9 Democratic split.
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2006, 01:39:48 am »
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It ain't that bad. We knew the odds at taking the Senate were low and they remain low...but we still have a shot.

I'm not writing off the Democrats yet, given that they evidently still have a chance, but it's getting smaller, and the new polls aren't exactly very heartening.  I'm going to be very, very disappointed if Montana re-elects Conrad Burns.  The other Republicans I'm not too concerned about if they win, but I can't stand Burns.

I'm with you there. A Burns victory would drive me mad.
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2006, 01:41:01 am »
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MOE movement probably. And even Mason-Dixon gets 1 in 20s.

Still, being at 45 is quite bad for an incumbent, since undecides usually break 2:1 against them. The undecideds are probably mostly people who like Chafee  but don't want a Republican Congress. Hard to see them breaking for Chafee in that case.

But even if he does pull this off, he's wooable.
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poughies
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2006, 01:59:43 am »
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title i think is wrong.... I think the article said Chafee up by 1.... am I mistaken..
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2006, 02:06:52 am »
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title i think is wrong.... I think the article said Chafee up by 1.... am I mistaken..

No, you are right.
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2006, 02:40:11 am »
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Of all pollsters, only Mason-Dixon appears to be trending toward the GOP. This means that either:

1-They've screwed something in their methodology causing bias
2-They've picked up on something no on else has

I'm really hoping it's #1.

Entirely possible though. Remember how badly Gallup blew it in 2004.

Wouldn't it be quite odd if Zogby ended up being more accurate than M-D?

Actually, M-D and Zogby do have the same result in VA.
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2006, 04:18:59 am »
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Holy crud!  I was sure this was old.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2006, 04:39:02 am »
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This may be Mason Dixons Minnesota of 2006. They got it wrong in 2004 too.
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sethm0
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2006, 10:18:09 am »
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   I've been saying for a while that RI is not in the bag for the Dems. There is strong sentimental attachment for Chafee and many people are not crazy about Whitehouse. Chafee has been going negative on him in a big way and Whitehouse's ads really have not been that great. Any other year and Chafee would probably be a lock to win.

  I still give Whitehouse the slight edge, however, for two reasons. While his ads have not been stellar, he has built a pretty amazing ground game. His campaign has had 80 full-time staff and from today to the election will have 1,000 paid canvassers in addition to legions of volunteers. In another state these numbers might not be impressive, but in Rhode Island they are almost unimaginably large. The Republicans' 72-hour operatoin is impressive too, but I think it will have met its match.

 Second, there is a major ballot initiative in Rhode Island around casino gambling. So much money has been thrown into the question, especially by the casino company wanting the initiative passed, that advertising on this issue is almost more visible than the Senate ads. The casino company is investing a truck-load of money into a gotv operation focused on the inner city. If this operation lives up to the hype, Whitehouse will benefit greatly.

 So this one really is going to come down to the wire. I predict Whitehouse with 51 or 52%.
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adam
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2006, 10:28:53 am »
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This is yet another in the bag race for the Democrats that is begining to tighten up. I doubt Chafee will win, but the recent slew of polls showing a GOP comeback should be quite troubling to the Democrats.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2006, 11:51:41 am »
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Charlie Cook said in an article a couple of days ago that Chafee was dead even with Whitehouse.  He's a smart guy, but I totally ignored him here.  Maybe he's right.  Or maybe this is just a one out of 20 type thing.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2006, 11:57:24 am »
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I can't help but worry that the Democratic campaign as a whole is beginnning to fall apart right at the last moment, what with this poll, the Montana race now being shown to be a tie, Maryland still looming over Democrats regarding what black voters will do, Tennessee dropping off the map, and so on.

It was nice while it lasted, at least. Tongue

As they say... the democrats never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.....

That being said, I do find Rhode Island hard to believe.

Mason Dixon is a great firm, but everybody, including Brad Coker and the boys lays an egg now and then - just the nature of the Beast.

Here is links to all the MD Polling in 12 states:

MD Polling in 12 states Smiley
« Last Edit: November 05, 2006, 12:01:43 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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Conan
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2006, 12:07:09 pm »
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This race is done and Sen. Whitehouse will be a distinguished senator.
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nini2287
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2006, 12:10:05 pm »
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I sure hope MD has picked up on something!
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tweed
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2006, 12:22:22 pm »
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I really hope this isn't true.  I hate people like Chafee and Shays.  However "moderate" they may be, they're still enablers.  They're kinda like the drivers of a getaway car after some murder just happened.

I'll still give it to Whitehouse but I'll move it from Lean D to tossup.  The reason I might believe this poll is because I caught some of the RI Senate debate last week and I think Chafee won although not by a groundbreaking margin.
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