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Author Topic: The 12 Mason Dixon polls  (Read 1706 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 05, 2006, 04:34:58 am »
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http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/71766.html

Arizona -- Republican Sen. Jon Kyl led Democrat Jim Pederson, 49-41 percent, with 3 percent supporting another candidate and 7 percent undecided.

Maryland -- Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Cardin led Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, 47-44 percent, with less than 1 percent favoring another candidate and 9 percent undecided.

Michigan -- Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow led Republican Mike Bouchard by 53-37 percent, with 3 percent supporting other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

Missouri -- Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill led incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent by 46-45 percent, with 2 percent supporting other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

Montana -- Republican Sen. Conrad Burns and Democrat Jon Tester, the state Senate president, were tied at 47 percent each, with 1 percent supporting another candidate and 5 percent undecided. Burns had been trailing through the fall.

New Jersey -- Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez led Republican Tom Kean Jr., a state senator, by 48-41 percent, his widest lead yet. He led earlier, 45-42 percent. Another 3 percent support other candidates and 8 percent are undecided.

Ohio -- Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown led incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine by 50-44 percent, with 1 percent supporting another candidate and 5 percent undecided.

Pennsylvania -- Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer, led incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum by 52-39 percent, with 2 percent supporting other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

Rhode Island -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee led Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, 46-45 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Two weeks ago, Whitehouse led, 48-43.

Tennessee -- Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, led Democrat Rep. Harold Ford Jr. by 50-38 percent, with 3 percent supporting other candidates and 9 percent undecided. Corker took a narrow lead several weeks ago after trailing weeks before.

Virginia -- Democratic challenger James Webb led incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen, 46-45 percent. It's the first time Webb has ever held an edge in a Mason-Dixon poll.

Washington -- Incumbent Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell led Republican Mike McGavick, 54-38 percent, opening the widest lead she's held all fall. Another 7 percent were undecided, and 1 percent supported other candidates.
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2006, 06:21:58 am »
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Arizona -- Republican Sen. Jon Kyl led Democrat Jim Pederson, 49-41 percent, with 3 percent supporting another candidate and 7 percent undecided.

Pretty good for the Democrats methinks

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Maryland -- Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Cardin led Republican Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, 47-44 percent, with less than 1 percent favoring another candidate and 9 percent undecided.

Not a suprise... and these numbers aren't a whole lot different to Mason-Dixon's September figures for this race.
9% undecided seems quite high.

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Michigan -- Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow led Republican Mike Bouchard by 53-37 percent, with 3 percent supporting other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

Seems as though the GOP wasted some money here...

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Missouri -- Democratic state Auditor Claire McCaskill led incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent by 46-45 percent, with 2 percent supporting other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

Talent has picked up some ground, but it's not very different from the last MD poll of the race.

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Montana -- Republican Sen. Conrad Burns and Democrat Jon Tester, the state Senate president, were tied at 47 percent each, with 1 percent supporting another candidate and 5 percent undecided. Burns had been trailing through the fall.

Discussed elsewhere

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New Jersey -- Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez led Republican Tom Kean Jr., a state senator, by 48-41 percent, his widest lead yet. He led earlier, 45-42 percent. Another 3 percent support other candidates and 8 percent are undecided.

Obviously good news for the Democrats.

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Ohio -- Democrat Rep. Sherrod Brown led incumbent Republican Sen. Mike DeWine by 50-44 percent, with 1 percent supporting another candidate and 5 percent undecided.

Both candidates up from the last MD poll, but Brown has hit 50% and there are sod all undecideds left. DeWine looks like toast.

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Pennsylvania -- Democrat Bob Casey Jr., the state treasurer, led incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum by 52-39 percent, with 2 percent supporting other candidates and 7 percent undecided.

No real change from the last MD poll. Santorum looks like burnt toast.

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Rhode Island -- Incumbent Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee led Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse, 46-45 percent, with 9 percent undecided. Two weeks ago, Whitehouse led, 48-43.

Both candidates up from the last MD poll. Yet still a lot of voters are undecided...

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Tennessee -- Republican Bob Corker, the former mayor of Chattanooga, led Democrat Rep. Harold Ford Jr. by 50-38 percent, with 3 percent supporting other candidates and 9 percent undecided. Corker took a narrow lead several weeks ago after trailing weeks before.

Add Ford to the ranks of the toasted.

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Virginia -- Democratic challenger James Webb led incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen, 46-45 percent. It's the first time Webb has ever held an edge in a Mason-Dixon poll.

Smiley

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Washington -- Incumbent Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell led Republican Mike McGavick, 54-38 percent, opening the widest lead she's held all fall. Another 7 percent were undecided, and 1 percent supported other candidates.

Obviously good news for the Democrats.
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2006, 09:43:55 am »
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It is going to be wonderful to say that Sherrod Brown is my senator.

These numbers look good, but could be better. I can't believe how close Maryland is. Cardin is lucky that this a Dem-favorable year, because I think he'd be losing if it wasn't.
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2006, 09:55:28 am »
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 I find these polls pretty alarming. If we lose Rhode Island, Montana or Maryland - much less all three - it would be a disaster.

 I've heard that Mason Dixon is the most respected polling firm out there. What is the reasoning behind this if it is true?
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2006, 10:02:41 am »
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 I find these polls pretty alarming. If we lose Rhode Island, Montana or Maryland - much less all three - it would be a disaster.

 I've heard that Mason Dixon is the most respected polling firm out there. What is the reasoning behind this if it is true?

I hope that the M-D poll in RI is what they got in MN in 2004. They got it wrong then. Whitehouse will slightly win I think.

In MD I still think Cardin will win.

MT - ? Could be the tightest race, together with MO and VA.

But gains are ahead I suppose - I think thereīs no need to worry about PA and OH anymore. The Dems should have both in the pocket.
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2006, 11:16:42 am »
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I think the Rhode Island number is garbage.... I'm sorry i really do. The Montana number is right on. The Ohio number understates Brown's support..... look when a republican polling firm has the Democrat further ahead, something is up.... Arizona seems fine. Santorum's number seem fine. Washington is good. New Jersey, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia all seem fine. Then we come down to two numbers that might be a little out of whack.... Tennessee and Maryland.... Look, Maryland is close... but Chuck Todd brought up an excellent point last night on Tim Russert [CNBC] and that is that Cardin is from Baltimore... usually Republicans need to do well in that area to win in the state. Sure Steele will get a good black vote, but I still don't see this being a 3 point race. Then Tennessee... I think that Ford is down anywhere from 3 to 7 points.... but 12 points.... no. If the Republican internals are showing a very close race and these polls are showing the opposite, then I think something is wrong....  We'll know in a couple of days.
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2006, 11:41:47 am »
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TN = Sad
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2006, 12:25:44 pm »
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Harry...no offence intended, but what does their MN result in 2004 have to do with anything?  Unless used to support the point that Mason-Dixon is not totally infalable...

I think that was just his point.

A few more to make:

-With 12 polls, there's more than a 50/50 chance one of them is a 1 in 20. That's a very likely explanation for Rhode Island

-I was worried about Montana, but the new Rasmussen has Tester up. So while it's within the MOE, it appears the tie could just be MOE movement, and I take solace in that Burns has yet to lead in a single poll. So right now I'd be on Tester being slightly ahead, and probably winning by 1-2 points, possibly less than a point though.

-I've suspected that M-D is oversamping Republicans, whether there's a reason or this is accidental we don't know, but these numbers are a bit out of whack of other pollsters. This means that either the above is true, or they've caught on to something everyone else hasn't. I'm hoping it's #1. But note that Brown's lead and Klobuchar's lead in their last poll are much smaller than other polls, lending evidence to this. I also believe that while Ford is down and probably is toast, it's probably not by 12, if I had to pick a number I'd say 8.

-I'm a bit worried about Maryland, but Cardin's still ahead, and Steele hasn't led in a single poll since a SUSA one a month ago, and SUSA is probably off here. Perhaps Cardin's lead is smaller than the other polls, but I'd be shocked if he isn't ahead by more than a razor thin margin. Another good thing is O'Malley running for governor, this means he'll have the Baltimore machine working full stop, and Cardin will benefit too.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2006, 01:00:08 pm »
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Harry...no offence intended, but what does their MN result in 2004 have to do with anything?  Unless used to support the point that Mason-Dixon is not totally infalable...

I think that was just his point.

Exactly. I just thought, given all recent RI polls, that MD has produced some kind of an outlier here. They donīt have to be right on every race. Therefore the comparison with MN 2004. This has not to be the case though. MD could really be right and Chafee wins. Itīs all in the MoE.
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2006, 01:00:39 pm »
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Except that marginal increases in black voter turnout will not help Cardin as much as O'Malley, because a good chunk of them will vote Steele (though obviously at a lesser rate than voting Cardin).

Once you have a race that's clearly 1-2 points, it comes down to turnout. Turnout can't account for 6 points but it definitely can make up 2. So ultimately I think this election will be a test of ground games, which doesn't make me all that confident.

On the other hand, I do think most polls are oversampling Democrats because they aren't using a strict enough voter turnout screen. In a Presidential year turnout is high enough it doesn't matter, but not in a midterm. The better firms (i.e. M-D) are probably using a better screening process and thus looking slightly more positive for the GOP.
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