I've never really followed House races until this year, so I was interested to read this about the lack of exit polling in House races....and the reforms that have been adopted to clamp down on exit poll leaks before the polls close. From Mark Halperin writing at Slate:
http://www.slate.com/id/2152465/entry/2152669/----
"Two elements will compound this problem. First, concerns about the past practice in which leaked exit-poll data have started showing up on the Internet and talk radio by midday Eastern Time, have caused a change. This year, two representatives from each member organization (the five network-news divisions and the AP) will be the only ones with access to the data until 5 p.m. ET. They will be sequestered in a room together until then, pouring over their computer screens but unable to share the information in any way. The rumors and accusations this will cause as the wider polarized forces on either side learn about this fact will be as intense as they are irrational.
Second, there are no exit polls in any of the competitive House races around the country. The consortium members spend a fortune on the exit poll every two years, but not enough to have large enough samples in individual districts. This means there is no ability to use exit-poll data to "project" winners in the races that will be the greatest focus of the evening and no "cross-tab" data to talk about why voters in these competitive districts voted the way they did. I predict that this will also cause a huge furor on both sides."
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So, I guess we will likely not have any exit poll leaks until after 5pm on Tuesday. Although, I would guess that even if the journalists themselves are prevented from leaking, you could always get a leak from one of the people who actually compiled the data. I mean, someone has to actually *produce* these exit polls that then only goes to the journalists sequestered in this room.
However, as Halperin points out, even if those exit polls are leaked, it will only be for Senate and Governor's races. No exit polls for the House races. So I guess we won't have any House races called the instant the polls close (based on exit polls). We will have to wait for the actual vote counts before any winners are called. On this point, for those of you who have tracked House races before, what is the typical timescale for this to happen? If a race is fairly lopsided, how long does it usually take before the networks call it? And what about for close races? If a candidate is leading in a House race by only about 3 or 4%, what %age of precincts do they usually wait for before calling it? And how long after the polls close does that usually take?
Also, I'm trying to remember from past years, at what point do they typically call which party will control each house? If the Democrats appear to have gained about 25 House seats already, but the polls haven't closed yet on the West Coast, are the networks going to say that the Democrats have gained control of the House? Or are they going to say "well, it's still mathematically possible for the GOP to offset those gains from the West Coast districts, so we're not going to call it yet"? I'm trying to get a feel for what point in the night they're actually going to call each house of Congress.
Btw, speaking of the networks' election coverage, it looks like MSNBC is going to be the craziest in terms of staying up all night. Their election coverage is scheduled to run all the way until 6am on Wednesday morning. (I assume that they're going to be live that whole time, and won't just be replaying coverage from earlier in the evening.) That's all well and good if the race for control of either House runs late, but what do they do if control of both houses has already been decided by midnight? It probably won't be much later than that that even most of the West Coast victory and concession speeches are over. Sure there will inevitably be a few races that will go uncalled well into the morning, but probably not *that* many. Who are they going to be able to get as a live guest at 4 or 5 in the morning?
