Florida Senate: If Jeb Bush were running would he win on November 7th?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I was just wondering now whether if Bush had run what the race would have been like and whether he would have won.  I think that its interesting to speculate whether in the harsh environment the GOP faces this year under the right circumstances whether they could have picked up a senate seat.  In some ways I think a Bush-Nelson race would have mirrored the Crist-Davis gubernatorial election.  Bush would now be leading by about 47%-38% - Floridians are mostly satisfied with his performance whilst Nelson's record has not been stellar.  Do you think the Democrats would have contested the race heavily or not?  Predict how much Jeb would win by; I certainly do think there is a case to make that Nelson could narrowly win.

[poughies]

Yes.......

[AuH2O]

Yes, and it wouldn't be close. That said, this is a case where he simply wasn't going to run-- Dole's failure was to get Harris out in favor of a Bense-type. Not that Bense would have won.

[Nym90]

It would've been close, but in this national environment Nelson would've narrowly pulled through. Bush was never overwhelmingly popular himself (56 percent of the vote in the good GOP year of 2002), and I'm sure his brother's approval ratings aren't so hot in Florida about now.

[adam]

Probably. Katharine Harris is the only reason as to why Nelson will be keeping his seat after this year.

[Eraserhead]

Probably. Katharine Harris is the only reason as to why Nelson will be keeping his seat after this year.

...and the fact that nobody likes Republicans anymore.

[Soaring Eagle]

It would be very, VERY close. The election would turn into a referendum on the Bush Presidency, and if Nelson could successfully tie Jeb to his big bro, Nelson would win.

[Wakie]

It would be a much better race and yes, I think he would win.

[The Vorlon]

Huge win

Jeb's approvals are still 55%-60% +

Interesting footnote about Jeb...

In 1994 Jeb barely (as in under 1%) lost his first race for Governor of Florida.

Jeb was "supposed" to be the one to run for President, not Goerge W...

We can play "what if's" forever... but for a few ,000 votes in Florida, in might have been President Jeb not George.... 

I suspect a very different world today if it had gone that way...

[Bdub]

Bush is still popular in the state and I have no doubts that he would win if he was running for Senate.