Why is DuPage County, IL so far left and liberal?

[Cyrusman]

It’s obviously not Maga country but it’s not some super progressive liberal area IMO but it votes that way.

I can’t imagine these people support high taxes, easy border policies and other items of the  progressive agenda but maybe I’m wrong.

Any ideas?

[GregTheGreat657]

It is not a "Bernie bro" area. The Democrats there are establishment types. If anything, taxes, crime, and inflation could be used by R's to narrow it down.

[Cyrusman]

It is not a "Bernie bro" area. The Democrats there are establishment types. If anything, taxes, crime, and inflation could be used by R's to narrow it down.

But why is it such a big time democrat establishment center? Like what’s so attractive to those people about the democrat establishment?

[GregTheGreat657]

It is not a "Bernie bro" area. The Democrats there are establishment types. If anything, taxes, crime, and inflation could be used by R's to narrow it down.

But why is it such a big time democrat establishment center? Like what’s so attractive to those people about the democrat establishment?

They want to feel like they are "down with the people", without actually helping the working class/actively smearing the working class as deplorables

[TML]

Roughly half of the adult population here has higher education. That should make it abundantly clear which party this county favors in the current political climate.

[TDAS04]

Romney only barely lost it to Obama, but DuPage would have even voted for Bernie over Trump.  (Interestingly, it backed Bernie in the 2016 primary.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is kind of a surreal topic headline to be reading. Imagine being told in 2006 that that would one day be a question and actually a valid one and not a laughable troll one.

[Roll Roons]

Trump was a horrible fit for it.

Bear in mind that it's not really a Gwinnett situation where there was a ton of demographic change because it's barely grown in the past two decades. Downballot Republicans still do far better than Trump, and a non-Trump R should be able to do substantially better. Interestingly, it swung 15 points left between 2012 and 2016 but only 3 from 2016 to 2020, indicating that Democrats may be close to tapped out for now.

IDK, Illinois has such weird politics.

[Sol]

Trump was a horrible fit for it.

Bear in mind that it's not really a Gwinnett situation where there was a ton of demographic change because it's barely grown in the past two decades. Downballot Republicans still do far better than Trump, and a non-Trump R should be able to do substantially better. Interestingly, it swung 15 points left between 2012 and 2016 but only 3 from 2016 to 2020, indicating that Democrats may be close to tapped out for now.

IDK, Illinois has such weird politics.

IIRC the tepid 2020 swing is mostly down to the large Asian and Latino swings to Trump in Northern sections of the county--the white southern half had strong swings to Biden, except in certain working class areas in the extreme south which I think are more like Will County/SW Cook.

[Aurelius]

Trump was a horrible fit for it.

Bear in mind that it's not really a Gwinnett situation where there was a ton of demographic change because it's barely grown in the past two decades. Downballot Republicans still do far better than Trump, and a non-Trump R should be able to do substantially better. Interestingly, it swung 15 points left between 2012 and 2016 but only 3 from 2016 to 2020, indicating that Democrats may be close to tapped out for now.

IDK, Illinois has such weird politics.

How has the racial composition changed? Wouldn't surprised me if it's gained blacks from Chicago, lost whites to Indiana, had old whites die off, and had the usual Asian and Hispanic population increases.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Trump was a horrible fit for it.

Bear in mind that it's not really a Gwinnett situation where there was a ton of demographic change because it's barely grown in the past two decades. Downballot Republicans still do far better than Trump, and a non-Trump R should be able to do substantially better. Interestingly, it swung 15 points left between 2012 and 2016 but only 3 from 2016 to 2020, indicating that Democrats may be close to tapped out for now.

IDK, Illinois has such weird politics.

How has the racial composition changed? Wouldn't surprised me if it's gained blacks from Chicago, lost whites to Indiana, had old whites die off, and had the usual Asian and Hispanic population increases.

I think that’s part of it, I believe it’s a higher % Asian and Hispanic than one would expect being often thought of as white and affluent. I do think one of the posters above also had a point about it being in favor of societal norms and trusting of institutions (which lends to being liberal these days) but not so much that they want to  disrupt the economic paradigm they are thriving in (so no economic left wingers). Another factor is probably that it is pretty much entirely suburban. This is a contrast from typical collar counties that extend into rural/exurbs. Kane, another suburban collar county, is pretty much entirely west of it so it houses most of the sparse Chicago western exurbs rather than DuPage. And finally Trump was just a bad fit

[lfromnj]

Trump was a horrible fit for it.

Bear in mind that it's not really a Gwinnett situation where there was a ton of demographic change because it's barely grown in the past two decades. Downballot Republicans still do far better than Trump, and a non-Trump R should be able to do substantially better. Interestingly, it swung 15 points left between 2012 and 2016 but only 3 from 2016 to 2020, indicating that Democrats may be close to tapped out for now.

IDK, Illinois has such weird politics.

How has the racial composition changed? Wouldn't surprised me if it's gained blacks from Chicago, lost whites to Indiana, had old whites die off, and had the usual Asian and Hispanic population increases.

I think that’s part of it, I believe it’s a higher % Asian and Hispanic than one would expect being often thought of as white and affluent. I do think one of the posters above also had a point about it being in favor of societal norms and trusting of institutions (which lends to being liberal these days) but not so much that they want to  disrupt the economic paradigm they are thriving in (so no economic left wingers). Another factor is probably that it is pretty much entirely suburban. This is a contrast from typical collar counties that extend into rural/exurbs. Kane, another suburban collar county, is pretty much entirely west of it so it houses most of the sparse Chicago western exurbs rather than DuPage. And finally Trump was just a bad fit

Kane is also anchored by Aurora which does cross into Dupage and slightly pushes it left but not much. Overall other than McHenry which is exurban the other collar counties do have defining industrial satellite cities that are more similar to Gary from what I understand than true suburbs of Chicago. Although they haven't suffered the same decline as Gary.

[Brittain33]

This is kind of a surreal topic headline to be reading. Imagine being told in 2006 that that would one day be a question and actually a valid one and not a laughable troll one.

Yes, it’s so weird not to be discussing it as Illinois’s heartland of conservative evangelicals.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Trump was a horrible fit for it.

Bear in mind that it's not really a Gwinnett situation where there was a ton of demographic change because it's barely grown in the past two decades. Downballot Republicans still do far better than Trump, and a non-Trump R should be able to do substantially better. Interestingly, it swung 15 points left between 2012 and 2016 but only 3 from 2016 to 2020, indicating that Democrats may be close to tapped out for now.

IDK, Illinois has such weird politics.

How has the racial composition changed? Wouldn't surprised me if it's gained blacks from Chicago, lost whites to Indiana, had old whites die off, and had the usual Asian and Hispanic population increases.

I think that’s part of it, I believe it’s a higher % Asian and Hispanic than one would expect being often thought of as white and affluent. I do think one of the posters above also had a point about it being in favor of societal norms and trusting of institutions (which lends to being liberal these days) but not so much that they want to  disrupt the economic paradigm they are thriving in (so no economic left wingers). Another factor is probably that it is pretty much entirely suburban. This is a contrast from typical collar counties that extend into rural/exurbs. Kane, another suburban collar county, is pretty much entirely west of it so it houses most of the sparse Chicago western exurbs rather than DuPage. And finally Trump was just a bad fit

Kane is also anchored by Aurora which does cross into Dupage and slightly pushes it left but not much. Overall other than McHenry which is exurban the other collar counties do have defining industrial satellite cities that are more similar to Gary from what I understand than true suburbs of Chicago. Although they haven't suffered the same decline as Gary.

Yes that speaks to why the collar counties are blue in general, since most of them have a small city within them. DuPage has Naperville (which is probably more suburban than city, but still nets a ton of Dem votes I believe) and a small part of Aurora. Kane has Aurora and Elgin, which are both legitimately urban at some points. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but I think Kane would vote R absent of those two city cores?

[dpmapper]

Naperville is pure suburb; it was pretty tiny in 1950.  It's more left-leaning than most other parts of DuPage in part because it has a large population of highly educated Asians. 

Aurora and Elgin have much older urban cores (they've had gang violence problems in the past), although Aurora in particular has expanded with a lot of suburban development around its edges.  For instance, the part of Aurora in DuPage is most definitely suburban in nature. 

[Sol]

This is kind of a surreal topic headline to be reading. Imagine being told in 2006 that that would one day be a question and actually a valid one and not a laughable troll one.

Yes, it’s so weird not to be discussing it as Illinois’s heartland of conservative evangelicals.

It's certainly not unprecedented though--not too different from suburban Minneapolis or MO-02 tbh.

[politicallefty]

This is kind of a surreal topic headline to be reading. Imagine being told in 2006 that that would one day be a question and actually a valid one and not a laughable troll one.

I had that same exact thought when I saw this topic.

Trump was a horrible fit for it.

Bear in mind that it's not really a Gwinnett situation where there was a ton of demographic change because it's barely grown in the past two decades. Downballot Republicans still do far better than Trump, and a non-Trump R should be able to do substantially better. Interestingly, it swung 15 points left between 2012 and 2016 but only 3 from 2016 to 2020, indicating that Democrats may be close to tapped out for now.

It's not just Trump though. It looks like this started around Obama in 2008. While he did have the home-state advantage that year, he held on in 2012. The trend has been creeping down-ballot though. Generally, federal offices start to fall first. Tammy Duckworth beat Mark Kirk by a decent margin in 2016. Dick Durbin carried the county by double-digits in 2020 with only a 16% statewide margin. The current IL-06 was supposed to be a Republican sink. That easily fell in 2018. In the gubernatorial race, Pritzker carried DuPage. I've tried to find information on this, but I was trying to find the last Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win DuPage. Apparently, Pritzker was the first since 1932 (back when gubernatorial elections were on the same ballot as presidential elections). That was probably the only exception since the founding of the Republican Party.

[Tekken_Guy]

Probably social issues, these types of voters are probably pro-choice and support gun control. Also education is important and Dems have long been the more trusted party on that issue.

[jamestroll]

This is kind of a surreal topic headline to be reading. Imagine being told in 2006 that that would one day be a question and actually a valid one and not a laughable troll one.

I would be interested to see its total Dem vs. GOP vote in the November elections for Congress this year. It voted slightly to the left of the state in the 2020 elections for President but voted for Pritzker by only 2 points in 2018 while he won by 15 statewide.

It has had some demographic change but not major demographic change.

[Mr. Illini]

This is kind of a surreal topic headline to be reading. Imagine being told in 2006 that that would one day be a question and actually a valid one and not a laughable troll one.

Yes, it’s so weird not to be discussing it as Illinois’s heartland of conservative evangelicals.

It's certainly not unprecedented though--not too different from suburban Minneapolis or MO-02 tbh.

Yeah, it’s consistent with other suburban areas. Hell, Orange County is voting D these days! That would’ve been really unbelievable to someone in 2006.

[Gracile]

In addition to what others have said, a significant portion of DuPage County's population works in science and technology-related fields - due to its proximity to research facilities like Fermilab and Argonne as well as corporations in the Illinois Technology Corridor along I-88. These industries have trended into the Democratic column in recent years. You can see local Democratic politicians like Bill Foster and Sean Casten leaning heavily into their science backgrounds to their electoral benefit.

Of course, secular whites in knowledge economy areas going into the Democratic column is hardly an unusual development over the past few decades, so DuPage is just following nationwide trends.

[Del Tachi]

Of course, it has to be said that DuPage County went from 92% White in 1990 to only 72% White in 2020. 

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

I moved there, that's why.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One interesting thing about DuPage is that Kirk actually lost it by more than Romney despite doing better in Lake (this sorta makes sense because it's where he's from but still).

2020 saw a massive turnout influx in the County which is why it could've not swung as far left as it did between 2012 and 2016. These new voters were likely less educated than the electorate overall.

Outside of Lake County and the Northern Suburb, DuPage probably is the 2nd most favored quarters economically in the Chicago metro.

Def seems like a case of white suburban voters becoming more educated and those educated voters themselves becoming more favorable to Dems, simillar to say Montgomery County PA. Important to remember too that Chicago is the arguably the 3rd largest metro in the US; an educated suburban County immediately outside the "minority ring" around the city is going to be pretty D

[Tartarus Sauce]

Romney only barely lost it to Obama, but DuPage would have even voted for Bernie over Trump.  (Interestingly, it backed Bernie in the 2016 primary.)

It's somewhat surprising that Romney wasn't able to flip it back, this is exactly the kind of county that was full of the demographic profile he was trying to court.