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Author Topic: Gallup Some make sense, others don't.....  (Read 2106 times)
poughies
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« on: November 05, 2006, 11:53:05 pm »
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http://www.usatoday.com//news/polls/tables/live/2006-11-05-state-polls.htm .....
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2006, 11:56:36 pm »
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Wow they are out already? So much for the Burns comeback (unless this is way,way off)!
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BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2006, 12:00:51 am »
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See Gallup's last 2004 polls.
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AuH2O
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2006, 12:02:16 am »
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Yeah. These go in the trash. We have Mason-Dixon for state level polling.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2006, 12:06:20 am »
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Yeah. These go in the trash. We have Mason-Dixon for state level polling.

I dont know, Mason-Dixon has seemed a little random in their polling on a number of races recently
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2006, 12:07:28 am »
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With possible exceptions of TN (which we all heard about already) and maybe MT, none of these seem too far off the mark...but it is true that they blew most of the state polling in 2004 (although the states they blew it in were very close anyway).
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okstate
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2006, 12:10:11 am »
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So....

McCaskill +4
Tester +9
Menendez +10
Whitehouse +3
Corker +3
Allen +3

?

I guess they aren't ridiculous.

The Montana result clearly contradicts Rasmussen, Zogby and Mason-Dixon.

But the result in Missouri looks pretty good. It's about the same as M-D, Rasmussen, Zogby, and Survey USA.

The Tennessee race is looking more like maybe Mason-Dixon is the outfit with the wrong result here, since Gallup shows it closer (and Rasmussen has shown 4 points of tightening)

Virginia's result looks a bit more out there. Clearly M-D, Zogby, and Rasmussen are in close agreement. I'd like to see what SurveyUSA has to say here. If they have Webb up I think that shows he clearly has a bit of a lead (and definitely the momentum). But if they show Allen up, that throws the contest into a lot more doubt, becuase you'd have good pollsters lined up on both sides.

I personally think Gallup's NJ result looks good when compared to others.

Rhode Island I'm less sure of. Mason-Dixon still looks a bit out there, but Gallup definitely is showing tightening, too.

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2006, 12:14:48 am »
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So they didn't poll Maryland? That sucks.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2006, 12:18:52 am »
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LV:

MT Tester leads 50-41
NJ Menendez leads 50-40
RI Whitehouse leads 48-45
TN Corker leads 49-46
VA Allen leads 49-46
MO McCaskill leads 49-45

RV:

MT Tester leads 48-45
NJ Menendez leads 44-35
RI Whitehouse leads 49-37
TN Corker leads 43-40
VA Tied 42-42
MO McCaskill leads 46-39

MT MO NJ and RI are looking good.
TN - Maybe Ford still has a chance
VA - This poll isn't so great, but high turnout would be good for Webb.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2006, 12:22:30 am by jfern »Logged
Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2006, 01:21:29 am »
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Just as a reminder, the final Gallup polls for 2004...

FL:  Kerry 50, Bush 47
IA:  Bush 48, Bush 46
MN:  Kerry 52, Bush 44
OH:  Kerry 50, Bush 46
PA:  Bush 50, Kerry 46
WI:  Bush 52, Kerry 44
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2006, 01:23:48 am »
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Just as a reminder, the final Gallup polls for 2004...

FL:  Kerry 50, Bush 47
IA:  Bush 48, Bush 46
MN:  Kerry 52, Bush 44
OH:  Kerry 50, Bush 46
PA:  Bush 50, Kerry 46
WI:  Bush 52, Kerry 44


Wow...even worse than I had remembered. The WI one is quite pathetic. Zogby-like even.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2006, 01:29:13 am »
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Just as a reminder, the final Gallup polls for 2004...

FL:  Kerry 50, Bush 47
IA:  Bush 48, Bush 46
MN:  Kerry 52, Bush 44
OH:  Kerry 50, Bush 46
PA:  Bush 50, Kerry 46
WI:  Bush 52, Kerry 44


Wow...even worse than I had remembered. The WI one is quite pathetic. Zogby-like even.

I think OH and PA are the worst.  I mean, no one expects anyone except for M-D to poll Florida correctly, so a bad result is ok there and Wisconsin is about as difficult, but outside MOE with wrong winner in two "very easy-to-poll states" like OH and PA.  Pathetic.

Hey, maybe they'll do better this year...
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2006, 01:43:24 am »
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Just as a reminder, the final Gallup polls for 2004...

FL:  Kerry 50, Bush 47
IA:  Bush 48, Bush 46
MN:  Kerry 52, Bush 44
OH:  Kerry 50, Bush 46
PA:  Bush 50, Kerry 46
WI:  Bush 52, Kerry 44


Wow...even worse than I had remembered. The WI one is quite pathetic. Zogby-like even.

I think OH and PA are the worst.  I mean, no one expects anyone except for M-D to poll Florida correctly, so a bad result is ok there and Wisconsin is about as difficult, but outside MOE with wrong winner in two "very easy-to-poll states" like OH and PA.  Pathetic.

Hey, maybe they'll do better this year...

I hope so.
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