Final Prediction Thread and Contest

[Jake]

As it is now officially one day until election day, time for this to go up. Predict the end result in all Senate and Gubernatorial races, plus the competitive (or all) House races. I say we have a separate contest for each of the Senate, Gubernatorial (other board), and House races. Maybe have someone (Sam?) compile a list of the top 60-80 House races. Say a deadline of 6AM EST on Tuesday morning?


Senate Races

Democratic Victories
California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Michigan
Nebraska
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Ohio *
Pennsylvania *
Rhode Island *
Virginia *
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Republican Victories
Arizona
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Other Victories
Connecticut (Lieberman)
Vermont (Sanders)

Ohio
55 Brown
44 DeWine

Michigan
54 Stabenow
43 Bouchard

Maryland
53 Cardin
45 Steele

Rhode Island
54 Whitehouse
45 Chafee

New Jersey
52 Menendez
46 Kean Jr.

Pennsylvania
53 Casey Jr.
46 Santorum

Virginia
49 Webb
49 Allen

Montana
50 Burns
49 Tester

Missouri
51 Talent
48 McCaskill

Tennessee
53 Corker
46 Ford

Arizona
52 Kyl
46 Pederson

House

Democrats Pickup

New England:
NH-02
CT-02
CT-04
CT-05

Mid-Atlantic:
PA-07
PA-08
NY-19
NY-20
NY-24
NY-29
VA-02

Ohio River:
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
KY-03
OH-01
OH-02
OH-15
OH-18

Great Lakes:
MN-01
IA-01
IA-02

Inner West:
WY-AL
CO-07

Southwest:
AZ-01
AZ-08
NM-01

West:
CA-11
WA-08

South:
NC-11
FL-13
FL-16

Republicans Pickup

South:
GA-08
GA-12

Democrats Defend

New England:
VT-AL

Mid-Atlantic:
PA-12

Ohio River:
IL-08
IL-17
IN-07
OH-06
OH-13
WV-01

Great Lakes:
IA-03

Inner West:
CO-03

Southwest:
TX-17

West:
OR-05

South:
LA-02 (Carter)
LA-03
NC-13
SC-05

Republicans Defend

New England:
NH-01

Mid-Atlantic:
PA-04
PA-06
PA-10
NJ-07
NY-03
NY-25
NY-26
VA-10

Ohio River:
IL-6
IL-10
IL-11
KY-02
KY-04
OH-12
OH-14
WV-02

Great Lakes:
MI-07
MI-08
MN-02
MN-06
WI-08

Inner West:
NE-01
NE-03
KS-02
CO-04
CO-05
ID-01

Southwest:
TX-21
TX-22
TX-23
AZ-05

West:
CA-04
CA-50
NV-02
NV-03

South:
NC-08
FL-08
FL-09
FL-22

End Result:

Democrats Gain: 32
Republicans Gain: 2

110th Congress:
234 Democrats, 201 Republicans

And Local Races

20th PA Senate District:
57 Baker (R)
43 McNamara (D)

113th PA House District
Shimkus (D) over Burke (R)

117th PA House District
Boback (R) over Nichols (D)

119th PA House District
Carroll (D) over Tatu (R)

121st PA House District
Pashinski (D) over Katsock (R)

[Cubby]

Jake thinks the Democrats will sweep the Connecticut House Races! Now if only Sam Spade would agree. Simmons's district is more Democratic but as I've said before, the decison to keep the Groton Submarine base open was a big victory for his campaign. Besides that he's a goner.

I hope you're wrong about NY 3. Peter King must go.

On a somewhat related note, I've never seen any polling done for the Vermont At-Large House Race? Does that Air Force Lady Martha Rainville have a chance? I can't imagine Douglas having coattails, especially in a year like this. ("Worst for the Republicans since 1974" said a Republican official quoted in today's New York Times)

[Smash255]

Jake thinks the Democrats will sweep the Connecticut House Races! Now if only Sam Spade would agree. Simmons's district is more Democratic but as I've said before, the decison to keep the Groton Submarine base open was a big victory for his campaign. Besides that he's a goner.

I hope you're wrong about NY 3. Peter King must go.

On a somewhat related note, I've never seen any polling done for the Vermont At-Large House Race? Does that Air Force Lady Martha Rainville have a chance? I can't imagine Douglas having coattails, especially in a year like this. ("Worst for the Republicans since 1974" said a Republican official quoted in today's New York Times)

NY-3 has gotten quite a bit of local coverage, but seems to be a bit under the radar on a national level.  I am in the district, and have done volunteer work for the Mejias campaign.  Phonebanking, canvassing, helping get mailings & brochurs  together, data entry.  Also helped out with the door to door GOTV operation earlier today and will again on Tuesday.  The race is under tbhe radar nationally, but I think Mejias has a real decent chance of pulling off the upset, in fact I predict him to win by a shade under 1 point.

[Smash255]

I willl try to do the full list later if I can. will do the 5  seats on Long Island now

NY-1

*D Tim Bishop 62.4%
 R Italo Zanzi 37.6%

NY-2
*D Steve Israel 75.3%
R John Bulger 24.7%

NY-3
*R Peter King 49.7%
D Dave Mejias 50.3%

NY-4
*D Carolyn McCarthy 70.4%
R  Martin Blessinger 29.6%

NY-5
*D Gary Ackerman 100%

[Sam Spade]

Quick list of 80 off the top of my head on House races (feel free to add anything not on the list):

AZ-01
AZ-05
AZ-08 (open)
CA-04
CA-11
CA-50
CO-04
CO-05 (open)
CO-07
CT-02
CT-04
CT-05
FL-08
FL-09 (open)
FL-13 (open)
FL-16
FL-22
GA-08
GA-12
IA-01
IA-02
IA-03
ID-01 (open)
IL-06 (open)
IL-08
IL-10
IL-11
IN-02
IN-03
IN-07
IN-08
IN-09
KS-02
KY-02
KY-03
KY-04
MI-07 (open)
MI-08
MN-01
MN-06 (open)
NC-08
NC-11
NE-01
NE-03 (open)
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NM-01
NV-02 (open)
NV-03
NY-03
NY-19
NY-20
NY-24
NY-25
NY-26
NY-29
OH-01
OH-02
OH-12
OH-14
OH-15
OH-18 (open)
OR-05
PA-04
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
TX-17
TX-22 (open)
TX-23
VT-AL
VA-02
VA-10
WA-05
WA-08
WV-01
WI-08 (open)
WY-AL

[Democratic Hawk]

Senate Races

Democratic Victories
California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Michigan
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Republican Victories
Arizona
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Nevada
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Other Victories
Connecticut (Lieberman)
Vermont (Sanders)

Ohio
55 Brown
44 DeWine

Michigan
55 Stabenow
43 Bouchard

Maryland
52 Cardin
47 Steele

Rhode Island
53 Whitehouse
46 Chafee

New Jersey
52 Menendez
46 Kean Jr.

Pennsylvania
53 Casey Jr.
46 Santorum

Virginia
49 Webb
49 Allen

Montana
50 Tester
49 Burns

Missouri
49 McCaskill
49 Talent

Tennessee
53 Corker
46 Ford

Arizona
52 Kyl
46 Pederson

Democrats +6

Senate: 50D / 49R / 1 Ind

House

Taken from Cook's Competitive House Chart

Likely Democrat - 12 seats

CO-03
IL-17
KS-03
LA-02 (Karen Carter)
OH-06
OH-13
OR-05
SC-05
SD-AL
UT-02
WA-02
WV-01

Lean Democratic

AZ-05
CO-07
FL-13
GA-08
IL-08
IA-01
IA-03
LA-03
NY-24
OH-18
TX-17
VT-AL

Democratic - Toss-up

GA-12

Republican - Toss Up - 34 seats

AZ-05
CA-11
CO-04
CT-02
CT-04
CT-05
FL-16
FL-22
IL-06
IN-02
IN-08
IN-09
KS-02
KY-04
MN-01
MN-06
NV-03
NM-01
NY-20
OH-01
OH-02
OH-15
PA-04
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
TX-22
VA-02
WI-08
WY-AL

Lean Republican   - 15 seats

AZ-01
CA-04
CA-50
CO-05
ID-01
KY-02
KY-03
NB-03 - Scott Kleeb may win but it's just too Republican
NV-02
NY-19
NY-25
NY-29
TX-23
WA-08

Likely Republican - 12 seats

FL-08
FL-09
IL-10
IN-03
IA-02
NH-01
NC-08
OH-12
VA-10
WA-05
WV-02

Democrats +27 / Republicans +1

House: 229 D / 206 R

Dave

Note: pick-ups in colors Democrat and Republican Bold denotes higher confidence

[gorkay]

I don't know enough about individual House races to break them down (unlike some of you guys, I have a life), but here are my quick and final predictions for the top ten Senate races and the overall House result. I think the Democrats are going to be disappointed tomorrow at their results. The Democratic wave that seemed to be building as late as last week has fizzled. Kerry's blunder and the Saddam Hussein trial result have helped the Republicans in that they helped stall the Democrats' momentum. Neither will have a big effect on who votes for whom, but so many races are so close that even a small effect could tip them one way or the other, and these will tend to tip the close races to the GOP. I also think that most of the disenchanted Republican voters will come home, having realized that they have no alternative and that sitting on their hands will only help the Democrats. The superior GOP get-out-the-vote machine will make sure they get to the polls. So:

The House: the Democrats will gain 18 seats, giving them numerical, but not functional, control of the House. This could hurt them in '08, since they won't have the numbers to accomplish anything, and will enable to GOP to scapegoat them for anything and everything that goes wrong in the next two years.

Senate races:

Ohio- Brown 53, DeWine 46
Pennsylvania- Casey 55, Santorum 44
Connecticut- Lieberman 46, Lamont 39, Schlesinger 14
Rhode Island- Chafee 50, Whitehouse 49
Virginia- Allen 50, Webb 48 (Something that has been almost universally ignored in this race is that there is an independent candidate who is polling 2% of the vote. Since the race is so close, this may well cost Webb the election.)
Missouri- Tallent 50, McCaskill 49
Tennessee- Corker 54, Ford 45
Montana- Burns 51, Tester 48
New Jersey- Menendez 53, Kean 46
Arizona- Kyl 54, Peterson 45

So it turns out to be a net gain of only one seat for the Democrats (two if you count Lieberman with the Dems)-- after all the ink about major changes, nothing much happens.

I think the level of disapproval in the country with the GOP leadership is fairly high, but it won't be accurately reflected in the vote. In my Congressional district, for example, Bush's approval level would probably be about 40%, but our Republican Congressman is running unopposed except for two minor independent candidates, so there isn't much we can do at the polls to register our disapproval. Huge swings in the makeup of the House are no longer possible, due to gerrymandering and the large number of unopposed incumbents.

[gorkay]

Here's a late update from Virginia: I just heard on our local six o' clock news that a new poll taken over the weekend shows Webb with an 8-point lead, 52% to 44%. If I remember correctly, it's the first poll since "macaca" that's shown either candidate with a lead higher than the margin of error.

[Rob]

Arizona

Kyl (R) 54 percent
Pederson (D) 45 percent

Republican hold

California

Feinstein (D) 62 percent
Mountjoy (R) 33 percent
Chretien (G) 3 percent
Metti (L) 2 percent

Democratic hold

Connecticut

Lieberman (CFL) 48 percent
Lamont (D) 40 percent
Schlesinger (R) 11 percent

Independent pickup

Delaware

Carper (D) 67 percent
Ting (R) 33 percent

Democratic hold

Florida

Nelson (D) 62 percent
Harris (R) 36 percent
Noah (I) 2 percent

Democratic hold

Hawaii

Akaka (D) 66 percent
Thielen (R) 33 percent

Democratic hold

Indiana

Lugar (R) 85 percent
Osborn (L) 15 percent

Republican hold

Maine

Snowe (R) 67 percent
Bright (D) 30 percent
Slavick (I) 3 percent

Republican hold

Maryland

Cardin (D) 51 percent
Steele (R) 47 percent
Zeese (G) 2 percent

Democratic hold

Massachusetts

Kennedy (D) 78 percent
Chase (R) 22 percent

Democratic hold

Michigan

Stabenow (D) 54 percent
Bouchard (R) 45 percent

Democratic hold

Minnesota

Klobuchar (DFL) 53 percent
Kennedy (R) 42 percent
Fitzgerald (I) 5 percent

Democratic hold

Mississippi

Lott (R) 66 percent
Fleming (D) 33 percent

Republican hold

Missouri

Talent (R) 49 percent
McCaskill (D) 49 percent

Republican hold

Montana

Tester (D) 50 percent
Burns (R) 49 percent

Democratic pickup

Nebraska

Nelson (D) 56 percent
Ricketts (R) 44 percent

Democratic hold

Nevada

Ensign (R) 55 percent
Carter (D) 41 percent
NOTA (*) 3 percent

Republican hold

New Jersey

Menendez (D) 51 percent
Kean, Jr. (R) 46 percent

Democratic hold

New Mexico

Bingaman (D) 66 percent
McCulloch (R) 34 percent

Democratic hold

New York

Clinton (D) 65 percent
Spencer (R) 32 percent
Hawkins (G) 2 percent

Democratic hold

North Dakota

Conrad (D) 69 percent
Grotberg (R) 31 percent

Democratic hold

Ohio

Brown (D) 56 percent
DeWine (R) 44 percent

Democratic pickup

Pennsylvania

Casey, Jr. (D) 55 percent
Santorum (R) 45 percent

Democratic pickup

Rhode Island

Whitehouse (D) 51 percent
Chafee (R) 49 percent

Democratic pickup

Tennessee

Corker (R) 53 percent
Ford, Jr. (D) 46 percent

Republican hold

Texas

Hutchison (R) 66 percent
Radnofsky (D) 33 percent

Republican hold

Utah

Hatch (R) 64 percent
Ashdown (D) 33 percent
Hatch (G) 2 percent

Republican hold

Vermont

Sanders (I) 66 percent
Tarrant (R) 33 percent

Independent hold

Virginia

Webb (D) 50 percent
George Allen (R) 49 percent

Democratic pickup

Washington

Cantwell (D) 53 percent
McGavick (R) 42 percent
Guthrie (L) 3 percent
Dixon (G) 2 percent

Democratic hold

West Virginia

Byrd (D) 65 percent
Raese (R) 33 percent
Johnson (M) 2 percent

Democratic hold

Wisconsin

Kohl (D) 69 percent
Lorge (R) 29 percent
Vogeler (G) 2 percent

Democratic hold

Wyoming

Thomas (R) 69 percent
Groutage (D) 30 percent

The Democrats gain five seats.

I may be too generous here- I gave the Dems all of the close seats, with the exception of Missouri- but what the hell.

Oh, if you're wondering why some of my percentages don't quite add up... I only listed candidates that will break 2 percent of the vote.

[Sam Spade]

Rob:  There's no way Hutchinson gets 66%, but it's a nice thought. 

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Senate:
Safe D
California Feinstein (D) 61, Mountjoy (R) 35, Other 4
Delaware Carper (D) 64, Ting (R) 34, Other 2
Florida Bill Nelson (D) 61, Harris (R) 37, Other 2
Hawaii Akaka (D) 61, Thielen (R) 37, Other 2
Massachusetts Kennedy (D) 67, Chase (R) 31, Other 2
Minnesota* Klobuchar (D) 54, Kennedy (R) 42, Other 4
Nebraska Ben Nelson (D) 56, Ricketts (R) 43, Other 1
New Mexico Bingaman (D) 64, McCulloch (R) 34, Other 2
New York Clinton (D) 66, Spencer (R) 31, Other 3
North Dakota Conrad (D) 69, Grotberg (R) 26, Other 5
Ohio (R) Brown (D) 55, DeWine (R) 44, Other 1
Pennsylvania (R) Casey (D) 55, Santorum (R) 45
Washington Cantwell (D) 55, McGavick (R) 42, Other 3
West Virginia Byrd (D) 63, Raese (R) 35, Other 2
Wisconsin Kohl (D) 65, Lorge (R) 31, Other 4

Likely D
Michigan Stabenow (D) 54, Bouchard (R) 45, Other 1

Lean D
New Jersey Menendez (D) 52, Kean (R) 46, Other 2

Tossup (Lean D)
Virginia Webb (D) 49.9, Allen (R) 48.3, Other 2.6
Montana Tester (D) 49.5, Burns (R) 48.4, Other 2.1
Maryland* Steele (R) 49.5, Cardin (D) 48.6, Other 1.9
Rhode Island Chafee (R) 50.1, Whitehouse (D) 48.4, Other 1.4

Toss-up (Pure)
Missouri McCaskill (D) 49.6, Talent (R) 49.3, Other 1.1

Lean R
Tennessee* Corker (R) 53, Ford (D) 46, Other 1
Arizona Kyl (R) 54, Pederson (D) 45, Other 1

Likely R
None

Safe R
Indiana Lugar (R) 91, Other 9
Maine Snowe (R) 72, Bright (D) 25, Other 3
Mississippi Lott (R) 63, Fleming (D) 36, Other 1
Nevada Ensign (R) 56, Carter (D) 43, Other 1
Texas Hutchinson (R) 62, Radnofsky (D) 37, Other 1
Utah Hatch (R) 64, Ashdown (D) 34, Other 2
Wyoming Thomas (R) 68, Groutage (D) 28, Other 4

Safe I
Vermont* Sanders (D/I) 62, Tarrant (R) 35, Other 3

Likely I
Connecticut Lieberman (CFL) 49, Lamont (D) 40, Schlesinger (R) 10, Other 1
Final Prediction
Democratic gains
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Virginia
Montana
Missouri

Republican gains
Maryland

Independent gains
Connecticut

110th Senate
51 R, 47D, 2 I
FINAL PREDICTIONS - HOUSE
* indicates change of party
GOP Seats
Likely D
1. AZ-08* (open)
2. CO-07* (open)

Lean D
3. PA-10*
4. IN-08*
5. IA-01* (open)
6. PA-07*
7. OH-18* (open)
8. OH-15*
9. NY-24* (open)
10. IN-02*
11. TX-22* (open)

Toss-up (Lean D)
12. FL-16 (open)
13. NM-01*
14. NC-11*
15. CT-05*
16. NH-02*
17. PA-06*
18. FL-13 (open)*
19. CT-04*

Toss-up (Pure)
20. NY-20*
21. OH-01*
22. FL-22
23. CT-02
24. AZ-05*
25. KY-03*
26. IN-09
27. IL-06 (open)
28. WI-08 (open)

Toss-up (Lean R)
29. VA-02
30. PA-08
31. NY-26
32. NY-25*
33. ID-01 (open)
34. CA-11*
35. OH-02
36. WY-AL

Lean R
37. NY-29
38. CO-04
39. KY-04
39. WA-08
41. KS-02
42. OH-12
43. PA-04
44. MN-01
45. MN-06 (open)
46. KY-02
47. NE-03 (open)
48. AZ-01
49. NY-19
50. IL-10
51. IA-02
52. NV-03
53. NC-08
54. NY-03
55. NV-02 (open)
56. VA-10
57. WA-05
58. CA-04
59. CO-05 (open)

Likely R
60. TX-23
61. NJ-07
62. IN-03
63. MI-07 (open)
64. NH-01
65. FL-09 (open)
66. NE-01
67. FL-08
68. MI-08
69. IL-11
70. NY-13
71. MI-09
72. NJ-05
73. CA-50
74. WV-02
75. IA-04

Dem Seats
Toss-up
1. IL-08
2. GA-08
3. GA-12*

Lean D
4. VT-AL
5. IA-03
6. IN-07
7. OR-05
8. WV-AL
9. TX-17

Likely D
10. IL-17 (open)
11. LA-03
12. CO-03
13. NC-13
14. SC-05
15. KS-03
16. LA-02

House Pickups
Dems (+24)
AZ-05
AZ-08 (open)
CA-11
CO-07 (open)
CT-04
CT-05
FL-13
IA-01 (open)
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
NC-11
NH-02
NM-01
NY-20
NY-24 (open)
NY-25
OH-01
OH-15
OH-18 (open)
PA-06
PA-07
PA-10
TX-22 (open)

GOP (+1)
GA-12

110th Congress
226 D, 209 R

[nini2287]

I'm only going to write down seats I think will switch-

SENATE
MO, MT, OH, PA, RI (D +5)

HOUSE
AZ-8, CO-7, CT-2, FL-16, IN-2, IN-8, IA-1, NH-1, NM-1, NY-24, NY-26, NC-11, OH-15, OH-18, PA-6, PA-7, PA-10, WY-AL

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I'm not going to bother with any of the non-competitive ones or the House elections...too many, i'll do the Senate

Rhode Island
*(D)Whitehouse - 52%
(R)Chafee - 47%

Connecticut
(D)Lamont - 41%
*(I)Lieberman - 49%

New Jersey
*(D)Menendez - 52%
(R)Kean Jr. - 47%

Pennsylvania
*(D)Casey - 55%
(R)Santorum - 44%

Maryland
*(D)Cardin - 52%
(R)Steele - 47%

Virginia
*(D)Webb - 51%
(R)Allen - 48%

Tennessee
(D)Ford - 48%
*(R)Corker - 51%

Missouri
*(D)McCaskill - 50%
(R)Talent - 49%

Montana
*(D)Tester - 51%
(R)Burns - 47%

Dems barely pick up Senate, easily take House

[Jake]

Senate Races

Democratic Victories
California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
Michigan
Nebraska
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Ohio *
Pennsylvania *
Rhode Island *
Virginia *
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin

Republican Victories
Arizona
Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nevada
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

Other Victories
Connecticut (Lieberman)
Vermont (Sanders)

Missed Montana and Missouri.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actual numbers and margin of error in red.

Total Margin of Error=42 points
Average Margin of Error=42/11=4 points

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Picked the number correctly, but missed NH-01.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Bit Democratic friendly here.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The level of Democratic letdown in Ohio becomes apparent, with only one pickup out of all those vulnerable seats.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

All correct.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I know two of these were wrong, and NM-01 and WA-08 are still outstanding, though looking like GOP holds.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Picked the wrong Florida seat.

Overall, I picked 11 seats to go Democratic that didn't.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Both super close, but both wrong.

Two Democratic seats predicted wrongly.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

All correct of course, considering there were no GOP pickups.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I got hurt by two surprises.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

All correct.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

One wrong.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Another one wrong.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Two wrong, neither very surprising.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

One wrong.

So, I predicted 8 Republican seats to be held, wrongly.

End Result:

Democrats Gain: 32 Actually gained 30
Republicans Gain: 2 Actually gained 0

110th Congress:
234 Democrats, 201 Republicans Will most likely be 230-205

I picked a total of 21 seat incorrectly, out of some 70 or so (70% success rate ).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

All House races were correct (none were in doubt really). 20th Senate District was 59-41, so not too bad there.