Likely voter polls can not accurately measure a race with such odd dynamics. Early voting has increased 24% since 2002 which is the primary reason I remain optimistic.
This varies wildly by county. For the 15 largest counties, which represent 60% of the statewide vote, early voting was up 5.5%.
Fort Bend +46%
El Paso -20%
Basically you had a huge increase to vote against what's his name in TX-22; population growth in the suburbs, and a bid drop off along the border since Sanchez isn't running.