... the expectations game.
Seriously. What do you think will sell more newspapers "More of the Same Could Be Election Result," or "Democrats Could Take Control of the House?" The media, especially last week, was clearly hyping a Democratic takeover.
As the polls and predictions stand currently, the Dems look very likely--more than not-- to get the necessary 15 seats or more. Rothenberg and Sabato have their reputations to preserve and they wouldn't hype just for the sake of it.
Still, when you have people like Charles Krauthammer claiming that a Democratic failure to take control of the House would be equivalent to a catastrophic defeat, or George Will writing articles like his recent one on how if the Democrats don't take control of Congress it will be like a 1936-style defeat, and thus by implicating giving Bush and the Republicans an FDR-style mandate, and Democrats they should just give up on politics, the hyperbole and loss of connection with reality there becomes defeaning.
A year ago, few respected political prognosticators would have predicted a Democratic takeover. Under current gerrymandering rules,
Bush won a plurality in 255 of our Congressional districts, while John Kerry won a plurality in only 180 of them. Thus it stands to reason that even if the Republicans fall short of an outright majority in the Congressional vote, indeed even if they fail to reach a plurality, they could still be returned to the majority of the Chamber. If the Democrats take the House, it will be a remarkable achievement, but if they fail, it will not be such a catastrophic defeat (it just might be a disaster for the country, but that's another issue).
There is no iron law of the six-year itch, as the GOP learned in 1998. Being in the sixth year of a two-term Presidency does not guarantee losses to the President's party. That is no less true of 2006 than any other sixth year, though the polls going into the event and the environmental factors are admittedly different this year.
Let us come back down to earth then and acknowledge reality:
This election counts as a technical Dem victory if they pick up (in net) at least one seat in the House AND at least one seat in the Senate; a.k.a. a gain in both chambers. While many Democrats would undoubtedly be unsatisfied with such a result, it would mostly be disappointing in relation to the exaggerated expectations that have built up.
In an era of 97.5 incumbent reelection rates, it should not be surprising.If this happened, it would actually be something historic. The last time the Democrats accomplished a gain in both chambers in an off-year election was in 1990 (in 2000, they couldn't do it without simultaneously losing the Presidency). In 1990, many of you all were in your diapers or the womb. Mikhail Gorbachev ruled over a vast communist empire from the Kremlin. The hottest thing in computers was an overlocked Intel 486. A gain in both chambers shows our party can still win off-year elections, something that after 16 years is no longer certain, and it presages a possible win in the White House in 2008, just as 1990 presaged 1992.
But most of all I urge Republicans, independents AND Democrats not to overreact if events do not meet expectations tommorrow. The way the information is currently available to us, suggests Dems have a more than 50-50 chance of succeeding, but we can't ever predict every factor from polls. Democrats: We always have to prepare for that small chance of failure, that it may be reality. It's a big disappointment, but not the end of the world-- just what most would have expected a year ago, and still found most likely six months ago. The party isn't going anywhere.
It's just time to pick ourselves up and try again.
Now the poll:
Option 1- Recriminate about how the "spineless DLC" are destroying the party, again urge Frodo to change his avatar, and explain why the Dems should advocate withdrawing from Iraq in 1 week, impeaching the President, and electing Dennis Kucinich in 2008.
Option 2- Proclaim Zell Miller as the only true Dem, and that the party is DOOMED, DOOMED if it doesn't abandon its principles, pander to guys with confederate flags and shotguns, and resurrect the zombie of John Breckinridge so that he can vanquish dailykos.com
Option 3- Angstily agonize about framing issues, symbolizing and wording phrases correctly, and how to better manipulate people in general. Read George Lakoff's book for the 6th time, this time noticing the booger stuck in the crack between pages 32 and 33.
Option 4- Finally expose the fact that Diebold voting machines are all linked to the White House basement by a super-secret telekinetic device, where Dick Cheney types in the election results on his computer... as he has been doing since 1968.
Option 5- Conclude that George Will was right, and that the only hope for humanity is now Canada, oh Canada. Pack my bags and head north, but not before cursing the fact that Union won the Civil War.
Option 6- After a moment, pick myself up from disappointment, and begin working hard toward victory in 2008!
Option 7- Not a Democrat.
Poll
