The 2006 Mid Term Election Swingometer

[Harry Hayfield]

Okay, so it's nothing along the lines of that great work of CGI that we call the swingometer in the UK, but it might be of interest as tomorrow progresses:

If all these districts go blue, Democrats gain control of the House
Number   District   Winner 2004   % Swing   Winner 2006   % Swing
1   Indiana’s 9th   Rep. Mike Sodrel   0%      
2   Pennsylvania’s 6th   Rep. Jim Gerlach   1%      
3   New York’s 29th   Rep. Randy Kuhl   1%      
4   Lousiana’s 7th   Rep. Charles Boustany   1%      
5   Colorado’s 4th   Rep. Marilyn Musgrave   1%      
6   Washington’s 8th   Rep. Dave Reichert   2%      
7   Connecticut’s 4th   Rep. Christopher Shays   2%      
8   Indiana’s 8th   Rep. John Hostettler   3%      
9   Texas’s 32nd   Rep. Pete Sessions   4%      
10   New Mexico’s 1st   Rep. Heather Wilson   4%      
11   Nebraska’s 1st   Rep. Jeff Fortenberry   4%      
12   Minnesota’s 6th   Open Race   4%      
13   Kentucky’s 4th   Rep. Geoff Davis   4%      
14   Indiana’s 2nd   Rep. Chris Chocola   4%      
15   Connecticut’s 2nd   Rep. Robert Simmons   4%      
16   California’s 26th   Rep. David Dreier   4%      

If all these districts go blue, Democrats have an overall majority of 20
17   Wyoming   Rep. Barbara Cubin   5%      
18   Virginia’s 2nd   Rep. Thelma Drake   5%      
19   Texas’s 22nd   Open Race   5%      
20   Pennsylvania’s 8th   Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick   5%      
21   Nevada’s 3rd   Rep. Jon Porter   5%      
22   North Carolina’s 11th   Rep. Charles Taylor   5%      
23   Iowa’s 1st   Open Race   5%      
24   Florida’s 13th   Open Race   5%      
25   Colorado’s 7th   Open Race   5%      

[True Democrat]

This isn't like the UK where a uniform swing can predict almost all the races.  All politics is local (with a lot of national mixed in).

[Harry Hayfield]

This isn't like the UK where a uniform swing can predict almost all the races.  All politics is local (with a lot of national mixed in).

That's the point I'm making. Neither can you in the UK. Election 2005 was forecasting a uniform swing from Lab to Con of 2.5% and forecasting 45 Con gains, in the end there was a 3% Lab to Con swing but only 33 Con gains (so this is more of an experiment) to see if a swingometer for the USA is the way forward.

[nclib]

Kinda interesting that Sessions (my rep when I attended UT Dallas) and Dreier (my hometown's rep), non-vulnerable Representatives, are on that list with mostly very vulnerable Representatives.

Sessions was facing an incumbent in 2004 due to Texas' redistricting.

[Harry Hayfield]

We've had 19 of the 25 top Democrat targets declare and whoever it was said the US doesn't work on a national uniform swing was bang on.

Results in: 19
Democrat GAINS: 9
Democrat MISSES: 10

Best Democrat Result: CO 7. Dem gain on a swing of 11.5% to Dem
Worst Democrat Result: LA 7. GOP hold on a swing of 20% to GOP

[Verily]

I think PA-04 was the best Dem result with a swing of about 16%.