Quick Question On The Eve Of The Midterms

[Lincoln Republican]

For all you congressional experts out there, a quick question on the eve of the crucial midterms.

I believe it is abundantly clear at this point that the GOP is going to lose the House.  The GOP has a decent chance to keep the Senate, but I believe they will definitely lose the House.

Question

If the Foley affair, which seems to be one of the issues that is pushing the electorate over the edge from supporting the GOP,  had never happened, would the Republicans then have had a  good chance to keep the House?   

[sethm0]

 I'm just guessing, but I think the Foley scandal lost the Republican between two and five seats.  So if the Democrats pick up less than 20 seats, then yes, Foley lost them the House.

[Sam Spade]

No.  The GOP was not doing well before hand and the only races where I've noticed any change that can be attributable to the events are FL-16, NY-26, OH-15 and to a lesser extent NM-01.  Barring a wave, the GOP will hold on to NY-26 and "I think" will hold on to FL-16 also.

OH-15 and NM-01 would have probably been won or lost (I say lost) regardless of the events.

[J. J.]

I was saying an 8-12 Dem gain in the late Spring.  There were a number of other scandals, however.  Foley played a part in the loss, but it wasn't the sole factor.  If the Dems gain less than 18 seats, it will be tipping point.