WA-08: Burner (D) and Reichert (R) tied - Now with weather tracking!

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Survey USA sez:

Burner (D) 49% (+4%)
Reichert (R) 49% (-2%)

This doesn't seem to be on their web site, but it was just on the local NBC affiliate.  You'll have to trust me, here.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Oh cheesy.

[Sam Spade]

Well, this goes against my prediction, but alas, I'm staying with my call. 

[okstate]

High MOE, but

"Among those poll respondents who have already voted: Burner leads by 8 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Reichert leads by 5 among those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to cast a ballot before polls close, but who have not yet done so. 38% of respondents have already voted; 62% have yet to."

[CultureKing]

High MOE, but

"Among those poll respondents who have already voted: Burner leads by 8 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Reichert leads by 5 among those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to cast a ballot before polls close, but who have not yet done so. 38% of respondents have already voted; 62% have yet to."

BAD news for Reicherts campain then, Western Washington has been hit with three bad storms in a row (the third is actually coming tonight through tomarrow) so I would expect bad turnout (compared to what was projected) on election day.

[ottermax]

High MOE, but

"Among those poll respondents who have already voted: Burner leads by 8 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Reichert leads by 5 among those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to cast a ballot before polls close, but who have not yet done so. 38% of respondents have already voted; 62% have yet to."

BAD news for Reicherts campain then, Western Washington has been hit with three bad storms in a row (the third is actually coming tonight through tomarrow) so I would expect bad turnout (compared to what was projected) on election day.

The storm isn't that horrible for most people, and I don't think it will have a major effect on voter turnout.  I'm happily surprised that she has tied the poll, and I think she can make a last minute win. This race has been tiring with so many negative ads, but I think that enough people are tired of Republicans here that they will vote for Burner by the slimmest margin.

[CultureKing]

High MOE, but

"Among those poll respondents who have already voted: Burner leads by 8 among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. Reichert leads by 5 among those who tell SurveyUSA they are certain to cast a ballot before polls close, but who have not yet done so. 38% of respondents have already voted; 62% have yet to."

BAD news for Reicherts campain then, Western Washington has been hit with three bad storms in a row (the third is actually coming tonight through tomarrow) so I would expect bad turnout (compared to what was projected) on election day.

The storm isn't that horrible for most people, and I don't think it will have a major effect on voter turnout.  I'm happily surprised that she has tied the poll, and I think she can make a last minute win. This race has been tiring with so many negative ads, but I think that enough people are tired of Republicans here that they will vote for Burner by the slimmest margin.

Agreed, though I think Reichert will win by the slimmest margin (though I dont want him to win)
Ahh... to think, no more Burner and Reichert ads. (very annoying for me considering I dont even live in a district bordering the 8th)

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Hmm...yikes...

Evacuations have been ordered in Sumner, Puyallup, Orting and other locations along the Puyallup River

Not especially good for Burner (areas around the Puyallup River probably went for Kerry, albeit narrowly - it's the Bonney Lake/Lake Tapps area where the GOP usually gets the big votes).

[Sam Spade]

Hmm...yikes...

Evacuations have been ordered in Sumner, Puyallup, Orting and other locations along the Puyallup River

Not especially good for Burner (areas around the Puyallup River probably went for Kerry, albeit narrowly - it's the Bonney Lake/Lake Tapps area where the GOP usually gets the big votes).

What % of voters absentee/early vote in WA?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Hmm...yikes...

Evacuations have been ordered in Sumner, Puyallup, Orting and other locations along the Puyallup River

Not especially good for Burner (areas around the Puyallup River probably went for Kerry, albeit narrowly - it's the Bonney Lake/Lake Tapps area where the GOP usually gets the big votes).

What % of voters absentee/early vote in WA?

73.98% of those in the 2nd district in Pierce County are permanent absentee voters.  As of today, 34.78% of absentees had been returned (oddly, the lowest turn rate among the congressional districts in the county).

In King County, the return rate is 38.46% for the district, the second-best behind the tiny sliver of District 2.  I think King County's permanent absentee is 62.02%, based on taking the primary absentee ballots sent and dividing by total number of registered voters.

Pierce and King are among the few counties where poll voting is even an option anymore.  I'd say probably 15%-20% of the state en toto votes at the polls, but that's just a guess.

[Sam Spade]

Hmm...yikes...

Evacuations have been ordered in Sumner, Puyallup, Orting and other locations along the Puyallup River

Not especially good for Burner (areas around the Puyallup River probably went for Kerry, albeit narrowly - it's the Bonney Lake/Lake Tapps area where the GOP usually gets the big votes).

What % of voters absentee/early vote in WA?

73.98% of those in the 2nd district in Pierce County are permanent absentee voters.  As of today, 34.78% of absentees had been returned (oddly, the lowest turn rate among the congressional districts in the county).

In King County, the return rate is 38.46% for the district, the second-best behind the tiny sliver of District 2.  I think King County's permanent absentee is 62.02%, based on taking the primary absentee ballots sent and dividing by total number of registered voters.

I'm confused.  Is that a % of total registered voters or a % of total absentee ballots handed out?  I'm more curious about the first number than the second.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I can't find any place where King County says outright what percentage of voters are permanent absentee, so I divided the absentee ballots sent for the primary by the number of voters.

That number is accurate unless for some reason King County did not send ballots to any permanent absentee voters.  I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't.

It's also two months stale, for what that's worth.

[Sam Spade]

Ok, thanks.  I do get what you're saying now.

WA-05 and WA-08 are the only races I've seen in WA of any interest this year.  I guess it could have a slight impact on Senate, depending on where the flood is centered.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Also, I need to correct my earlier statement.  This is worse for Reichert, now that I look at the district and the river.  The Democratic parts of Sumner and Puyallup are within the 9th.  The conservative rural area around them, plus Orting (which is Republican) are in the 8th.  With a few minor, isolated exceptions, bad weather in the Pierce County portion of the 8th is good news for the Democrats.

Still, though, decreased turnout only along the river in Orting is not a huge deal.  It's a tiny part of the district.

[CultureKing]

Also, I need to correct my earlier statement.  This is worse for Reichert, now that I look at the district and the river.  The Democratic parts of Sumner and Puyallup are within the 9th.  The conservative rural area around them, plus Orting (which is Republican) are in the 8th.  With a few minor, isolated exceptions, bad weather in the Pierce County portion of the 8th is good news for the Democrats.

Still, though, decreased turnout only along the river in Orting is not a huge deal.  It's a tiny part of the district.

true, though in close elections you never know... Oh and Gregoire has declared a state of emergency in most of the Western Washington counties due to flooding, the flooding would mainly effect the Skokomish and Snohomish rivers... which are outside the 8th