WA-08: Burner (D) and Reichert (R) tied - Now with weather tracking!

[Alcon]

Survey USA sez:

Burner (D) 49% (+4%)
Reichert (R) 49% (-2%)

This doesn't seem to be on their web site, but it was just on the local NBC affiliate.  You'll have to trust me, here.

[Alcon]

Hmm...yikes...

Evacuations have been ordered in Sumner, Puyallup, Orting and other locations along the Puyallup River

Not especially good for Burner (areas around the Puyallup River probably went for Kerry, albeit narrowly - it's the Bonney Lake/Lake Tapps area where the GOP usually gets the big votes).

[Alcon]

Hmm...yikes...

Evacuations have been ordered in Sumner, Puyallup, Orting and other locations along the Puyallup River

Not especially good for Burner (areas around the Puyallup River probably went for Kerry, albeit narrowly - it's the Bonney Lake/Lake Tapps area where the GOP usually gets the big votes).

What % of voters absentee/early vote in WA?

73.98% of those in the 2nd district in Pierce County are permanent absentee voters.  As of today, 34.78% of absentees had been returned (oddly, the lowest turn rate among the congressional districts in the county).

In King County, the return rate is 38.46% for the district, the second-best behind the tiny sliver of District 2.  I think King County's permanent absentee is 62.02%, based on taking the primary absentee ballots sent and dividing by total number of registered voters.

Pierce and King are among the few counties where poll voting is even an option anymore.  I'd say probably 15%-20% of the state en toto votes at the polls, but that's just a guess.

[Alcon]

I can't find any place where King County says outright what percentage of voters are permanent absentee, so I divided the absentee ballots sent for the primary by the number of voters.

That number is accurate unless for some reason King County did not send ballots to any permanent absentee voters.  I can't think of a reason why they wouldn't.

It's also two months stale, for what that's worth.

[Alcon]

Also, I need to correct my earlier statement.  This is worse for Reichert, now that I look at the district and the river.  The Democratic parts of Sumner and Puyallup are within the 9th.  The conservative rural area around them, plus Orting (which is Republican) are in the 8th.  With a few minor, isolated exceptions, bad weather in the Pierce County portion of the 8th is good news for the Democrats.

Still, though, decreased turnout only along the river in Orting is not a huge deal.  It's a tiny part of the district.