Senate predictions...

[Gabu]

Might as well throw out my (probably horribly off) final predictions.  I'm too lazy to bother looking at the 435 House races, so I'll stick to the Senate.  I was gonna post this in Jake's topic, but it was getting way too long, so I figured I might as well jump on the bandwagon and post my own topic.

Safe Democratic

California

Di-Fi really is in no danger whatsoever.  Mountjoy is a joke.

Feinstein (D) 62
Mountjoy (R) 33

Delaware

I don't even know anything about Jan Ting, which tells me that he probably is not exactly a threat to the popular Democratic incumbent.

Carper (D) 66
Ting (R) 32

Florida

Coulda been competitive, but no, the Republican picked quite possibly their worst candidate in this entire season for Florida.

Nelson (D) 60
Harris (R) 38

Hawaii

It's Hawaii, and this isn't the governor's race.

Akaka (D) 60
Thielen (R) 38

Massachusetts

I expect Kennedy to clobber yet another sacrificial Republican in this most Democratic of Democratic states.

Kennedy (D) 70
Chase (R) 28

Michigan

Hard to imagine why the RNCC spent a wad of cash on this race.  It's not going anywhere.

Stabenow (D) 54
Bouchard (R) 45

Minnesota

Kennedy has certainly fallen apart here.  I have a feeling I'm being kind to him by predicting he breaks 40%.

Klobuchar (D) 57
Kennedy (R) 40

Nebraska

It's Nebraska, but then again, it's Ben Nelson, so he is in no trouble.

Nelson (D) 58
Ricketts (R) 41

New Mexico

Don't know much about this race, but Bingaman seems very popular, and none of the polls predict he's going anywhere.

Bingaman (D) 67
McCulloch (R) 31

New York

No one could have beaten Clinton here.  Clinton wins handily.

Clinton (D) 67
Spencer (R) 32

North Dakota

I hate this race as far as predicting it goes.  We've had all of one poll from January.  Any predictions out of North Dakota are basically going to be based completely and totally on wild guesses attempting to take Conrad's popularity and North Dakota's lean into account.  I really have no idea here.

That said, can't complete a prediction without it, so my random guess is...

Conrad (D) 65
Grotberg (R) 35

I don't even know if there are any third-party candidates running here.  Come to think of it, I know absolutely nothing about this race other than the candidates' names, and even then I had to look up the Republican's name.

Ohio

This race never ceases to amaze me.  It was widely held before that Brown would have no shot, and yet here I am, one day before election day, predicting...

Brown (D) 56
DeWine (R) 43

Pennsylvania

Hate to say it, Phil, but unless you're gonna believe a poll from someone no one has heard of released only from Santorum's campaign, Casey's gonna win this one.

Casey (D) 55
Santorum (R) 45

Washington

McGavick gave a slight scare to Democrats earlier in the race, but Cantwell's looking strong enough to make the result of this race no longer in dispute.

Cantwell (D) 53
McGavick (R) 45

West Virginia

Byrd is a living legend in West Virginia.  Next.

Byrd (D) 64
Raese (R) 34

Wisconsin

Kohl doesn't do much, but I suppose Wisconsinites think that that makes him A-OK since he hasn't offended them.  Tommy Thompson didn't show up, so this gets relegated to safe for the Democrats.

Kohl (D) 63
Lorge (R) 34

Lean Democratic

New Jersey

It seemed to be looking like Kean just might win this one, but then New Jersey realized that it was New Jersey, so the fact that Menendez was the Democratic candidate was fine by them.  Kean could take this seat if the Republicans make a last-minute election day surge, but it ain't likely.

Menendez (D) 53
Kean (R) 45

Tossup

...or "Don't Quote Me on These".

Missouri

This race has been ridiculously close the entire election season.  I really don't know where it's at, but my best guess is...

McCaskill (D) 49.5
Talent (R) 49.4

It's gonna be ridiculously close, either way.

Montana

ugh
ugh
ugh
ugh
ugh
ugh

Burns (R) 50.0
Tester (D) 49.5

Please prove me wrong, Montana.  I know you're better than this, but you're scaring me so much.

Maryland

I don't really know where this race is either, but I'm still holding out hope that Maryland doesn't vote for Steele just because he's a black guy.

Cardin (D) 50.2
Steele (R) 49.1

Rhode Island

Chafee just might win this, but considering that it's Rhode Island, I'm going to give the edge to the Democrat.

Whitehouse (D) 50.5
Chafee (R) 49.5

Virginia

This race has been by far the best news for the Democrats this entire election cycle.  The thought of Allen losing wasn't even on anyone's mind in January, but here it is.

Webb (D) 49.7
Allen (R) 48.9

Lean Republican

Tennessee

Ford has put up a valiant effort to win Frist's old seat for the Democrats, but it's looking like he'll fall short at the last minute.  Could still happen in a strong Democratic surge, but I don't see it happening.

Corker (R) 51
Ford (D) 48

Arizona

A favorite for victory in Democrats' wet dreams, but Kyl's looking like he'll win unless there's a massive Democratic surge in the nation.

Kyl (R) 53
Pederson (D) 46

Safe Republican

Indiana

The Democrats will clearly pull this one off under a Category 6000 hurricane through the efforts of write-in candidate Bob Smith.

In reality, however, Lugar is the safest Republican of the year, what with not even having a Democratic opponent.

Lugar (R) 92
Osborn (L) 8

Maine

Maine loves both its senators to a ridiculous amount, and Snowe's challenger isn't particularly strong.  No contest here.

Snowe (R) 74
Bright (D) 23

Mississippi

Gotta admire Harry for keeping the dream alive, but Mr. Thurmond-Would've-Solved-Our-Problems is heading back to DC.

Lott (R) 65
Fleming (D) 34

Nevada

Sharing a last name with one of the least popular presidents can't help Jack, and Ensign hasn't done much to upset Nevadans.

Ensign (R) 55
Carter (D) 44

Texas

Radnofsky never really had a chance.  Next.

Hutchinson (R) 64
Radnofsky (D) 35

Utah

Ashdown has received a lot of attention, but c'mon, it's Utah, folks.

Hatch (R) 63
Ashdown (D) 35

Wyoming

Thomas has given Wyoming no reason not to re-elect him, and they're looking like they'll agree.

Thomas (R) 69
Groutage (D) 27

Safe Independent

Vermont

Downwitdaleft or whatever his name is has tried to keep Tarrant afloat, but to no avail.  Sorry, dude.

Sanders (I) 60
Tarrant (R) 37

Lean Other

Connecticut

Lamont could still win this if enough Republicans abandom Lieberman for Schlesinger, but I doubt it'll happen.

Lieberman (CFL) 46
Lamont (D) 41
Schlesinger (R) 12

Pickups

Democrats: MO, OH, PA, RI, VA (+5)
Republicans: (none) (+/- 0)
Independents: (none) (+/- 0)
Connecticut for Lieberman: CT (+1)

New Senate composition



Raw numbers

Democrats: 48
Republicans: 50
Independents: 1
Connecticut for Lieberman: 1



Caucusing

Democrats: 50
Republicans: 50