Disclaimer - This year I have been too busy to follow things closely - This is a very quick guess based on looking at polls for 1 day - Caveat Emptor !!Hi Folks;
Here is my quick take on the Senate.
Sorry I haven’t been around much, I am busy, busy on a couple races.
Up here in Alberta Canada we are changing Premiers (+/- the Governor of our Province) which takes up vast swaths of my time, and I am also remote control polling/number crunching for one race in the US, so I have not been posting much…
Here is my quick take on all the competitive races… I'll add more stuff as the day goes on...
PennsylvaniaSantorum is actually in better shape than he looks… He has sh*tloads of money, a solid base, a great turnout operation… That being said, Bush is so unpopular in Pennsylvania that if Bush opened a mortuary in Pennsylvania folks in Philadelphia folks would stop dying….
I don’t think this race will be quite a blowout (as in 15%) but Casey is solidly ahead by a lead just nudging up to double digits. If the GOP faithful give up hope it could easliy go to 15%, but it's not there yet...
I like Rick personally, I worked for him in 1994, but sorry guy – in 2006 it’s
“Hasta la Vista Baby…”Democratic PickupOhioDewine is imploding, it’s over.
Democratic PickupRhode islandQuick Summary of Rhode Island..?
The two guys runnng for Senate are "Lincoln" and "Sheldon"...
In Idaho don't they have a constitutional amendmend saying folks named "Sheldon" can't run for statewide office or something?
Chaffee is headed for a narrow loss, say 51/48 or so. He has gained traction a bit of late. Karl Rove and the boys are flogging the GOP base very, very, very, hard in this one (quietly of course, but they are on the ground, as the VP might say "Big Time") - If Rove can get the GOP base out in big numbers to support the very same candidate the base voted AGAINST in the primary - well - then Rove is indeed a true political genius. - I'll believe it when I see it, and frankly, I don't think I'll see it. - Rove is smart, he is not a magician. You can't repeal the law of Gravity, and Bush is a political black hole in Rhode Island - anything that gets too close gets sucked in beyond the event horizon and disappears never to be seen again.
At the end of the day the GOP base hates Chaffee more than the Democrats dislike him. I think this one has a very odd turnout dynamic. Democrats will not stampede to the polls in favor of Whitehouse (or to throw out Chaffee for that matter), but I expect more than a few of the GOP faithful will just stay home.
A GOP senator in Rhode Island is an anomaly at the best of times for the GOP, and these are clearly not the best of times. for the GOP.
Democratic PickupMontanaBurns should be utterly dead. Tarred with the Jack Abramoff scandal, generally being an aloof and arrogant pr*ck who is well past his “best before date”,
combined with the fact that Tester is a generally sane and lucid fellow, and Burns should be toast.
On the other hand, Montana is still a pretty strong GOP state.
Despite basic notions of Justice and fairness, Burns holds.
barelyGOP HoldNew JerseyIn some ways, New Jersey is almost a flip side of the national race. The Democrats in New Jersey are so old, tired, and scandal plagued that a solid GOP candidate can almost be seen as a breath of fresh air.
Internal polling for the GOP has picked up in New Jersey, and this is about a 2-3% race right now, and measures of voter intensity show a big GOP edge on this one (almost the only place in the US where the GOP has an edge)
If this was 2004 I would say Kean would actually have a modest edge, but this is 2006 so a very mild Democratic advantage.
Democratic HoldMissouriTalent is just a little bit behind, it’s close, and the race could go either way, but I have McCaskill
barely ahead.
Firstly, Talent has historically, as an individual, always slightly over polled. – Not huge, but a few %. - He's a decent fellow, but has a smallish personal base.
Remember, he only got 51% in 2002 and that was a GOP year. Is 2006 2% worse for the GOP than 2002 ?- "Big time" as I heard one person once say...
Secondly, Talent just is not the kind of guy the GOP base walks through walls for. – This one will be won/lost on the ground and on election day, and I am not sure Talent has the personal strength of character to inspire the battle weary faithful to go that last mile that may be needed.
Talent's turnout operation in 2002 just plain stunk the joint out - The GOP says they have fixed it. I am not fully convinced.
There is always a “breeze” on election day, when the whole world shifts 2 or 3% in one direction or another. This year that breeze is more likely to be in the Dems direction than the GOP. – McCaskill in a photo finish.
Democratic PickupMarylandIn some ways, similar to New Jersey.. ..
The fun and games of Maryland Democrats are pretty well documented.
Steele is articulate and an African American. Cardin is a long way from Mr. Personality.
If this was 2004 I would say Steele would still be behind, but it would be a close race worth watching.
But this is 2006, and this is a Democratic year, in a very Democratic state.
Closer than expected - maybe 5-7%, but still in the Dem column quite safely.
Democratic HoldTennesseeIt’s close, with Corker having a modest edge. The GOP base is waking up in Tennessee, and the New Jersey Gay Marriage court case may be just enough red meat to flog the GOP religious right faithful to the polls in enough numbers to salvage Bill Frist’s seat for the GOP.
Corker is ahead, (not by much, but he is ahead) and the GOP is throwing MASSIVE resources at this seat in a firewall strategy to keep it that way. - A bunch of paid GOP staff have been qietly redeployed from Ohio (The GOP has written Dewine off, public protests to the contrary)
Fords campaign has been running on a sugar high of early success, but at the end of the day I don't think they have the bodies, roots, and organization to get their folks to the polls on election day, while the GOP has all those things, in spades, in Tennessee.
Finally, Blacks overpoll in the south - silent racism. It's a fact, look it up.
Corker by more than you think.
GOP HoldVirginiaWebb is pulling away, expecially with Indys and women - Webb by more than you may think.
Dem Pickup
