Indiana and Kentucky as indicators

[Gustaf]

How many seats do the Democrats have to pick up (assuming that the counting is fast enough) in those states in order for it to be likely that they'll win the House? It seems to me that if they win 4+ it's a sure thing and if they win 3 it's probable. 2 would basically mean it's up in the air and 1- means a GOP retain. What do the rest of you think?

[Eraserhead]

I don't know if you can look at it like that. It looks like those two states races have been trending back towards the GOP while other states races have been trending even more towards the Democrats. Maybe your theory is right but we shall see soon enough anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have a closer look at the swings from 2002 and where the votes are coming from (if that makes any sense).

Most KY and IN districts have a candidate of each party, making 'em good for that.

[Mr. Morden]

Isn't at least one of the IN districts in play at least partially in the Central Timezone?  It's only the Eastern Timezone portion of IN where the polls close at 6 ET.  The Central Timezone portion closes at 6 CT / 7 ET, which is the same time polls close in places like GA and VA.

[KEmperor]

Isn't at least one of the IN districts in play at least partially in the Central Timezone?  It's only the Eastern Timezone portion of IN where the polls close at 6 ET.  The Central Timezone portion closes at 6 CT / 7 ET, which is the same time polls close in places like GA and VA.

Yes, I don't know if they are holding off on reporting the eastern districts till the entire state closes though.

[Mr. Morden]

I think they may be holding off on reporting the results for statewide races, but I'm not sure about congressional races.

[Sam Spade]

Kentucky has an excellent ballot-counting system, so we'll see the results there first.  It is very important to look at the margins and where the swings are coming from, as Al pointed out before.  Generically, I would rate along this scale: 

KY-02, 03, 04 fall - ultra-bad night for Republicans, losses over 40 unless KY is a severe outlier (see 1996).
KY-03, 04 fall - bad night for Republicans, probably losses of 30-40 seats
KY-03 falls - probably around my range of numbers, upwards to 30 possible.
None fall - Will be a good night for Republicans, possibly under 20 seats.

Been rumors of voting machine problems in Indiana and some precincts have gotten the order from a judge to stay open another hour or two.

[Sam Spade]

I think they may be holding off on reporting the results for statewide races, but I'm not sure about congressional races.

No split-state reporting this year or anytime in the future.  Everyone remembers Florida 2000 too well.

[Mr. Morden]

I think they may be holding off on reporting the results for statewide races, but I'm not sure about congressional races.

No split-state reporting this year or anytime in the future.  Everyone remembers Florida 2000 too well.

Even for congressional races, where all the polls have closed in that district, but just not the rest of the state?  If that's true, then we won't get any results from anywhere until 7pm Eastern.

[Sam Spade]

I think they may be holding off on reporting the results for statewide races, but I'm not sure about congressional races.

No split-state reporting this year or anytime in the future.  Everyone remembers Florida 2000 too well.

Even for congressional races, where all the polls have closed in that district, but just not the rest of the state?  If that's true, then we won't get any results from anywhere until 7pm Eastern.

I don't think so.  Maybe I'll be wrong.  However, Kentucky reports fast, so we should know something not that soon after 7PM.

[Adlai Stevenson]

If the Democrats are to gain the House they need to take a majority of the following Districts:

KY-3
KY-4
IN-3
IN-8
IN-9

[Sam Spade]

I assume you mean IN-02.  I agree with your general thesis, though I could come up with a very real situation, where they only win 2 and win a majority.

I do think the Indiana races are going to be closer than everyone is thinking they will be, fyi, because that's where the movement has been.  IN-09 is a definite toss-up.

[Mr. Morden]

If it's true that we won't see any IN or KY results until after 7pm Eastern, then that's also the time the polls close in GA, VT, and VA.  VA2 is one to watch as well, and we can watch GA8 and GA12 (plus maybe VT-AL) to see if the GOP has any hope of picking off any Dem. seats.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Yes I did mean IN-2 but IN-3 could be closer than we expect, according to polling anyway.

[Sam Spade]

Yes I did mean IN-2 but IN-3 could be closer than we expect, according to polling anyway.

If IN-03 falls, it's going to be a really bad night for the GOP.

[Alcon]

IN-2 will take a while to be called, probably, due to polls in Delaware County (Muncie, which will help the Democrats) being open later.