House Results thread

[Deano963]

It's over. Northup can't come back from that. KY-03 is the first Dem Congressional pickup of the evening.

Wow. This was one of the races to watch wasn't it? One of the races the pundits said that if it flips to the Dems that Democrats are going to have a huge night?

[Deano963]

It's over. Northup can't come back from that. KY-03 is the first Dem Congressional pickup of the evening.

Wow. This was one of the races to watch wasn't it? One of the races the pundits said that if it flips to the Dems that Democrats are going to have a huge night?

Probably not in the Top 20, but in the Top 40.

Exactly what I mean. If the Dems are winning a race that is in the top 40, CW would say that means they are likely to have night of around 30 pickups at least.

[Deano963]

Yarmuth leads by 3.6K with 83% reporting. Anyone know which counties/precincts are left and which candidate they would help?

[Deano963]

Daily Kos is reporting that in NH-02 Bass was defeated by Hodes. I can't figure out where they got the info from however.....

[Deano963]

With 36% reporting, Kellam is up by 1 vote on Drake in VA-02.  Haha.

I kinda hope there at least a few races that are so close that we need to wait a few days to figure out who won.

What's a Democracy anyways without razor-thin victory margins and protestors from each side declaring their candidate the winner?

[Deano963]

57% reporting and Drake is up 2.6K.

[Deano963]

GA-08: 41% counted, Collins (R) up by 900

DAMNIT! Not that this race is over already or anything, but I am REALY REALLY hoping that we completely shut out the GOP from picking up any Democratic-held House, Senate or Gov seat. That has never happened before in any election.

Even in 1994 The Democrats took out 4 incumbent Republicans.

[Deano963]

Deborah Pryce (R) has edged out Mary Jo Kilroy by a few thousand votes in OH-15.

NOOO!!!!

I met her this weekend and she was awesome!

I am also very upset with this. I went to school at Ohio State in this district. Deborah Pryce is terrible and dosen't fit the district well. She deserved to lose badly. Who would have thought we don't pick up OH-15 but we pick up a seat in frickin' Kansas?

[Deano963]

CNN predicts 3 seats going to Dems in the House

IN-09
FL-22
AZ-08

I will be ecstatic if Shaw loses.

[Deano963]

Early results coming in from Idaho, one of the other upsets-in-the-making. Sali leads by 4% with 1% reporting.

Trauner is also leading Cubin!

[Deano963]

I'm thinking Dems get at least 24 seats, up to 32 seats...

Dems have already picked up 23 seats.....I am going to say they end up picking up 30 at the very least.

[Deano963]

Anyone know about Leach and Loesback in IA-02???

[Deano963]

I have Dems +20 right now, with potential for about 12 more at most... seem right?

No. They have already picked up 23. CNN is forecasting Dem gains of 28-36, 28 at the very minimum.

[Deano963]

Does anyone think Titus still has a shot at upsetting Gibbons?

[Deano963]

I have Dems +20 right now, with potential for about 12 more at most... seem right?

No. They have already picked up 23. CNN is forecasting Dem gains of 28-36, 28 at the very minimum.

It was only +20 thirty months ago.

My forecast was 20-32, CNN says 28-36. There's some overlap there. Both CNN and I can still be correct.

VT-AL
IN-08
KY-03
NH-02
IN-02
IN-09
CT-05
PA-07
OH-18
NC-11
AZ-08
PA-10
NH-01
FL-16
FL-22
NY-20
TX-22
NY-24
AZ-05
PA-04
CO-07
IA-01
KS-02

23 seats, 22 if you don't count VT-AL.

[Deano963]

I didn't have CO-07 down, CNN.com doesn't have it officially called yet. Though obviously the Dem will win. Missed FL-22, too.

For some reason there wasn't a big hullaballoo made about Klein defeating Shaw even though that was one of the top tier of targeted races.

[Deano963]

2300 votes separate Schmidt and Wulsin.

I wish so badly that Hackett had stayed in this race. If Wulsin is doing this well, Hackett would have destroyed Schmidt.

What a pathetically weak candidate Schmidt is. This district is EASILY 65% Republican yet she can barely defeat a liberal challenger. What a frickin joke this idiot is........

[Deano963]

Kagen has won WI-08. (ddint know if that was posted already)

[Deano963]

Marshall pulls ahead in GA-08 by just over 700 votes.

Awesome!!!

For the first time in history it looks like one party will not defeat a single incumbent of the other party.....knock on wood.

[Deano963]

Burner, baby!

"100% of precincts in King County reporting, Darcy Burner is up by about a thousand votes over Rep. Reichert (R) out in WA-8.

(ed.note: Thanks to TPM Reader GT for the tip.)"

Whoa! I thought this race was over already I didnt even know there was a recount going on....

Did Burner really win?!?! I just went to CNN's website and it say that only 59% of precincts have reported.

[Deano963]

big on Kilroy.  Hope she runs again

Big that Foley-phile Pryce is almost certain to hold on

Dave

Don't worry too much guys. Her district is pretty much flying left, and the dismal turnout in Franklin County (mostly Columbus which voted for Kilroy) this year saved Pryce. Turnout in Franklin county was 7% lower than turnout statewide. 2008 is a Presidential year so Pryce cannot count on low turnout to save her ass again. John Kerry beat George Bush in Franklin County by over 41,000 votes in '04, Kilroy only beat Pryce by 7,000. A similar turnout like '04 will doom Pryce if she has a strong challenger again. If Kilroy were to run again, she would win - and that's coming from someone who almost never makes predictions, let alone two years out.

[Deano963]

Kilroy won't have Strickland/Blackwell coattails again and Foley will be well out of voters' minds in 2008.

That's assuming she has Strickland/Brown coattails this time, which turnout numbers suggest she did not. Pryce will also be forced to vote on numerous bills on the Democratic agenda for the next two years, and she will actually have to prove her so-called "moderate" status. Any whiff of an extreme right-wing voting record in this district and she is gone.

[Deano963]

Her district is pretty much flying left

If that was the case she would have lost.

That's some shady logic buddy. She won be a much slimmer margin than she has ever won before even with with weaker turnout in Kilroy's base of support - that alone suggest the district is moving left, as well as the Presidential vote share in the district for the past few cycles. The fact that she still eeked out a win does not mean the district is not moving left.

[Deano963]

That's some shady logic buddy.

How so?

You should note that I'm not objecting to the idea that the Columbus area has, over the past decade or so, swung towards the Democrats.

B/c you said that if it was true the district was moving left then Pryce would have lost. That's not necessarily true. It's much more likely the demographics just haven't caught up with her yet, and like I said before a Presidential-level voter-turnout in '08 will likely do the trick. And let's not forget that she massively outpsent Kilroy in this race.

[Deano963]

B/c you said that if it was true the district was moving left then Pryce would have lost.

No I didn't. I objected to "pretty much flying to the left", something which sounds to me a lot different to "moving left".

Whatever. That dosen't make logical sense either, for the exact same reasons.