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ag
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« on: November 08, 2006, 05:05:19 am »
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Not sure where to put it, but seems like important changes in a number of states, especially in the Midwest. According to the web site of the National Conference of State Legislatures, the following chambers appear to switch from Republican to Democrat control:

Iowa House and Senate
Minnesota House
Michigan House
New Hampshire House and Senate
Oregon House
Wisconsin Senate
Indiana House

In addition, Pennsylvania House is still too close to call, but Dems seem to be ahead.  No chambers seem to have gone the other way, but Oklahoma Senate is now tied (was a small Dem lead). A number of Western states haven't reported yet, though.

In NY, though, the State Senate stays Republican. There might be one Dem pick-up (in a seat that went to a recount last time, and is very close this time as well), which would make it go from 35:27 to 34:28 Republican.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2006, 05:08:54 am by ag »Logged

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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2006, 05:09:11 am »
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Got a good link?

NY will probably have to wait for the next redistricting. No severe gerrymandering of NYS senate = Democratic majority.
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2006, 05:49:26 am »
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For Washington, if my math is right...it was a small massacre.  Also note when looking at the numbers that there are about five Washington house seats where the GOP barely leads, and that could change in later counts; most of the Democratic margins aren't so close.

The Republicans lost 1/4 of their seats in the Senate, and just under 1/5 in the House; the latter number may go up to around 1/4, though.

Senate
Democrats 31 (+6)
Republicans 18 (-6)

House*
Democrats 64 (+8)
Republicans 35 (-8)

* - The House only has 98 members, but the base numbers I'm using seem a little messed up.  It's something like this, though.
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« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2006, 06:29:39 am »
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Blankenship's attempt to buy the WV Legislature failed miserably Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2006, 10:23:51 am »
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Got a good link?


As usual, http://www.ncsl.org/

BTW, even OK Senate is not quite a GOP pick-up: ties are broken by Lt. Gov, and he's a Dem.

Only Montana left to report now. PA house still too close to call.
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« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2006, 10:37:56 am »
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Got a good link?


As usual, http://www.ncsl.org/

BTW, even OK Senate is not quite a GOP pick-up: ties are broken by Lt. Gov, and he's a Dem.

Only Montana left to report now. PA house still too close to call.

The Democratic Whip lost his seat.

A lot of incumbents in both chambers are losing their seats due to the pay raise.

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« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2006, 10:45:21 am »
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A lot of incumbents in both chambers are losing their seats due to the pay raise.

Grin
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« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2006, 10:51:49 am »
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My district  is 6 votes apart with 100% reporting.
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« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2006, 10:53:34 am »
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In CT, it looks like we will get a situation similar to what used to be the norm in MA: a REP governor, but a DEM supermajority in the legislature. At the latest count, it is

House D 97, R 44, Undecided 10
Senate D 25, R 10, Undecided 1

Hartford Courant reports Dems expect their final total to be, at least, 103 seats, a net gain of 4, giving them the supermajority for the first time. In the Senate, where they had a bare supermajority before, they've already gained a seat and still might get another one.

In MA the results imply a one-party rule, now that the governorship is in Dem hands. You'd think Republicans couldn't do any worse, than the last time, but they did:

House D 141 (+4), R 18 (-3), vacant/undecided 1
Senate D 35 (+1), R 5 (-1).

I guess there is a vacancy open for the position of the second major party in MA. The Republicans are increasingly a minor party in the state. Greens? Libertarians? Anyone?
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« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2006, 11:08:43 am »
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In Michigan, I know the Dems have taken the House 58-52, and the Senate is coming down to one seat (32nd district) in which the votes are still being counted. If the Dems can win that seat it would tie the chamber 19-19 and the tiebreaking vote of Lt. Gov. Cherry would give the Senate to the Dems.
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« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2006, 11:35:03 am »
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Here's a NCSL summary

Alabama: Rep gains 2 in the Senate, 1 in the House. 23/12 Dems in the Senate, 62/43 Dems in the House

Alaska: Dems gain 1 in the Senate and at least 2 in the House. 11/9 Rep in the Senate, 23/16 Rep in the House with 1 undecided

Arkansas: No changes in the Senate, Dems gain at least 2 in the House. 27/8 Dem Senate, 74/23 Dem in the House with 3 undecided

Arizona: No changes in the Senate, Dems gain 7 in the House. 18/12 Rep Senate, 32/28 Rep House

California: No changes expected

Colorado: Dems gain at least one in the Senate and at least 3 in the House. 19/15 Senate (1 undecided), 38/26 House (1 undecided)

Connecticut: Dems gain at least 1 in the Senate, and the House is up in the air, change-wise. 25/10 Dem Senate, 97/44 Dem House. Dem gains expected in the House

Deleware: No changes in the Senate, Dems gain 3 in the House. 13/8 Dem Senate, 23/18 Rep House

Florida: No changes in the Senate, Dems gain 7 in the House. 26/14 Rep Senate, 78/42 Rep House

Georgia: No changes in the Senate, GOP likely to pick up seats in the House. 34/22 Rep Senate, 104/73 Rep House (3 uncided)

Hawaii: No changes in the Senate, Dems gain 2 in the House. 20/5 Dem Senate, 43/8 Dem House

Illinois: Dems gain at least 4 in the Senate and at least 1 in the House. 35/21 Dem Senate (3 undecided), 65/49 Dem House (3 undecided)

Indiana: Dems win 3 seats to take the Indiana House. 51/49 House. No changes in the 33/17 Senate.

Iowa: Dems win 5 seats in the House and 4 seats in the Senate. 29/21 Senate, 54/45 House (1 undecided, I think)

Kansas: Dems win 6 seats in the House, making it a 77/48 Rep House.

Kentucky: Dems gain 5 in the House, making it 61/38 Dem

Maine: Reps gain 1 in the Senate, Dems gain at least 6 in the House, 80/51 Dems is the results now with 20 districts either out, or represented by other parties

Maryland: Dems gain 2 in the Senate and 10 in the House. 34/13 Dem Senate, 108/33 Dem House

Massachusetts: Dems gain 1 in the Senate and 4 in the House. 141/18 Dem House, Dem 35/5 Senate

Michigan: Dems gain at least 1 in the Senate and they have a shot at a tie (from 22/16 Rep to 19/17/2 Rep). Dems gain 9 in the House while winning a majority.

Minnesota: Dems win 6 in the Senate (going from 38/29 to 44/23) and 20 in the House (from 67/66/1 to 86/48)

Missouri: Dems gain at least 5 in the House and at least 1 in the Senate. 91/71 Rep House (1 undecided), 21/12 Rep Senate (1 undecided)

Montana: Dems gain at least 9 in the Senate (from 27/23 to 36/22/1) and the House is too close to call (50/50 to 47/46/7)

Nevada: Dems gain 1 in both chambers. 11/10 Rep Senate, 27/15 Dem House

New Hampshire: Dems gain at least 84 in the House and 5 in the Senate for a 234/156 House and a 13/11 Senate

Seems like a trend.. doesn't it?
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« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2006, 11:45:03 am »
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Indiana Democrats may yet add a House seat, giving them 52.  It will be interesting to watch, what with Mitch Daniels in the big chair.  I've never been able to figure Daniels. 

I voted against my State Senator, a Republican, for the first time.  I did so because I voted a straight ticket -- first time for that, ever!  I really do like the guy and am not disappointed that he won.  He's done some really good things to make the roads and highways safer. 
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« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2006, 12:05:18 pm »
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Map of state legislatures (counting Nebraska as tied due their special system. Ignore the shadings, I forgot to remove them Tongue)

Old map:


New map:

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« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2006, 01:12:13 pm »
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It was a sizeable massacre here for the Republicans... the house went frm 68/66 Republicans to 85/49 for the DFL.  The senate went from 38/29 Dems to 44/23 Dems.

My hometown defeated their Republican senator for an amazing DFL candidate who likely has a future lined up for her (Possibly governor?).

These are nearly veto-proof majorities. 

The Senate Majority Leader was defeated, however.  Dean Johnson was defeated because of tapes released that revealed him telling pastors not to worry that he had blocked a referendum on gay marriage, because it was already illegal in the state.

I'm almost glad he lost.  We'll get someone new in there that will be better.
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« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2006, 04:21:02 pm »
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Gerrymandering FTW - little change. I think (bloody slow SoS) it turned out dead even. The Reps took House Districts 54 (open) and (in an upset) 61 while the Dems took House Districts 37 (open) and (in even more of an upset) House District 53 (I am so going to have to see how that happened Tongue ) and defended their open seats in Valencia County (Districts 7 and 8 ) which I suspect they would have lost in an election not so overwhelmingly anti-Republican Wink so it was a wash.

If I ever finish my precinct project I'll provide 2004 Presidential Numbers and all that. Tongue
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« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2006, 05:15:08 pm »
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Rick Jore won a seat in the Montana House of Representatives on the Constitution Party ticket. A first for them. He defeated an incumbent Democrat.
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« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2006, 06:04:08 pm »
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Looks like this in the Texas House and Senate:  Overall, a decent night for the Dems.

* - means open seat

Senate:
R20 D11 (R+1, gained TXS-18*)

House:
R82, D68 (D+3, gained TXH-47*, TXH-107, TX-134)

A few notes:
TX-47 is SW Travis County and was expected to go Dem
The Texas Dems had already gained TXH-48 earlier due to resignation.
TXH-107 is an inner (very inner) Dallas suburb within the city, a seat which is most likely moving left at all phases of politics.
TXH-134 is an inner Houston ritzy area seat that is probably moving Dem like TXH-107.

The closest holds were these:
TXH-11:  A rural Democratic East Texas seat that was barely held onto again.  The House member got 51%
TXH-17:  Rural area in-between Austin and Houston (a lot of TX-10 is here).  Incumbent Dem barely survived by 1% of the vote probably because of Bastrop County.
TXH-33:  Solomon Ortiz Jr. (D) won 52-48 to take this open House seat formerly held by Vilma Luna (D).  Probably looking to go the way of his father.  Nueces County (Corpus Christi) mostly.
TXH-35:  Another West Texas rural Hispanic Dem Rep. survives with 52%.
TXH-52:  Mike Krusee (R) got 50% and survived a challenge in this Williamson County (Austin suburb) race.
TXH-96:  Bill Zedler (R) won with about 52% in the Fort Worth exurban HD.
TXH-102:  Another inner-city Dallas GOP member who survived (instead of losing), Tony Goolsby.  His HD is still mostly within Dallas city limits but is much more suburban than TX-107.
TX-106:  Mainly Grand Prairie (Dallas suburb) HD that Kirk Englund (R) held onto by about 1% margin.
TX-118:  Carlos Uresti's (D) old House HD (San Antonio outskirts, with some South Side precincts) that the Democrat held onto with 48%.  Libertarian got 7%


And finally in a shocker that Al will like, in TXH-85, Democrat Joe Heflin held onto Pete Laney's old House seat out in far west Texas by a margin.  Heflin is a trial lawyer and more liberal than Laney and will probably have trouble holding onto this seat in the future, but it was a most interesting win.
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« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2006, 10:06:03 pm »
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And finally in a shocker that Al will like, in TXH-85, Democrat Joe Heflin held onto Pete Laney's old House seat out in far west Texas by a margin.  Heflin is a trial lawyer and more liberal than Laney and will probably have trouble holding onto this seat in the future, but it was a most interesting win.

Ah... I'd be wondering how that one had gone. Interesting.
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« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2006, 10:10:20 pm »
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In IL the Dem's definitely picked up 4 Senate seats. That becomes interesting since with 36 votes (vs. 23 R) the Dems have a veto-proof majority there. Though the Gov is also a D, there has been some disagreement between the Dems in the legislature and Gov over the last four years. This may add an interesting twist.

There appears to be a gain of 1 House seat for the House Dems putting them at 66 - 52. There are two races where the margin is less than 200 votes and each party currently leads in one. These may take a couple weeks to sort out while counting absentee and provisional ballots.

edit: a close senate race has now gone for the Dems. That means the pickup in 5 and there will be a 37-22 advantage. It's the smallest GOP caucus in memory.
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« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2006, 02:20:48 am »
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In IL the Dem's definitely picked up 4 Senate seats. That becomes interesting since with 36 votes (vs. 23 R) the Dems have a veto-proof majority there. Though the Gov is also a D, there has been some disagreement between the Dems in the legislature and Gov over the last four years. This may add an interesting twist.

There appears to be a gain of 1 House seat for the House Dems putting them at 66 - 52. There are two races where the margin is less than 200 votes and each party currently leads in one. These may take a couple weeks to sort out while counting absentee and provisional ballots.


Muon, am I to assume you won your race? Smiley
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« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2006, 04:04:37 am »
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Looks like this in the Texas House and Senate:  Overall, a decent night for the Dems.

Senate:
R20 D11 (R+1, gained TXS-18*)

House:
R82, D68 (D+3, gained TXH-47*, TXH-107, TX-134)
Quote
81-69

GOP lost 2 seats in Dallas, 1 in Houston, 1 in Austin, and 1 in Corpus Christi.

Quote
TXH-17:  Rural area in-between Austin and Houston (a lot of TX-10 is here).  Incumbent Dem barely survived by 1% of the vote probably because of Bastrop County.
Cook had planned on quitting in 2004, and two other Democrats had already decided to run, along with 4 Republicans for what had appeared to be an open seat.  Cook filed at the last moment, easily winning the Democrat primary, then won by about 10%.  This time the GOP spent a lot more on the effort and almost won.

Quote
TXH-33:  Solomon Ortiz Jr. (D) won 52-48 to take this open House seat formerly held by Vilma Luna (D).  Probably looking to go the way of his father.  Nueces County (Corpus Christi) mostly.
Because Luna was unopposed when she withdrew, all parties were able to choose a new candidate.  The loser in the Democrat selection process, Danny Noyola, was upset because he felt that Ortiz Sr. had controlled the process (he was probably right).  There was also a special election for the remaining 2 months of Luna's term, in which Noyola ran along with the GOP candidate Joe McComb, with Ortiz 43.95%, McComb 43.47%, and Noyola 12.57%.  Conceivably, McComb could win the special election if Noyola backers turn out and vote for him.  As it was, it looks like they split about 50-50.

Quote
TXH-35:  Another West Texas rural Hispanic Dem Rep. survives with 52%.
South Texas, it is between San Antonio and Corpus Christi.  Not that close since there was also a Libertarian with 5% of the vote.

Quote
And finally in a shocker that Al will like, in TXH-85, Democrat Joe Heflin held onto Pete Laney's old House seat out in far west Texas by a margin.  Heflin is a trial lawyer and more liberal than Laney and will probably have trouble holding onto this seat in the future, but it was a most interesting win.
He had a 74:24 lead in his home county (Crosby), where the house race had more votes cast than the governor's race, and the downballot statewides were around 65:35 GOP. 
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« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2006, 10:04:06 am »
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An interesting observation. Republicans are still controlling the governoships in 3 New England States (VT, RI, CT), but in 5 out of the 6 legislative chambers in those states Democrats now have veto-proof majorities! The sole exception  is the VT House, but even there Republicans are now reduced to under a third, with independets now making up the balance. Thus, Republicans on their own are unable to block an override of a veto in any New England State they still govern!

We have:

VT
House D 93 (+10), R 49 (-11), Independent/Other 8 (+1)
Senate D 23 (+2), R 7 (-2)

CT
House D 106 (+7),  R 45 (-7)
Senate D 24 (no change), R 12 (no change)

RI
House D 61 (+1), R 14 (-1)
Senate 33 (no change) R 5 (no change)
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« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2006, 03:41:01 pm »
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In IL the Dem's definitely picked up 4 Senate seats. That becomes interesting since with 36 votes (vs. 23 R) the Dems have a veto-proof majority there. Though the Gov is also a D, there has been some disagreement between the Dems in the legislature and Gov over the last four years. This may add an interesting twist.

There appears to be a gain of 1 House seat for the House Dems putting them at 66 - 52. There are two races where the margin is less than 200 votes and each party currently leads in one. These may take a couple weeks to sort out while counting absentee and provisional ballots.


Muon, am I to assume you won your race? Smiley

Yep, I got just over 60%. Smiley I'm still sorting through the precinct data. I'll post a map when I've got it all.
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« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2006, 07:03:40 pm »
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Oddity in state legislative elections this year: 

It looks like the only legislative chamber in the country to flip from Dem to GOP will be the Montana House, where it was tied at 50-50 before and will now be 50R-49D-1C, as the first Constitution party member ever won a state House seat.

Also interesting is that the state Senate there appears to have moved from 27D-23R to 25D-25D.
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« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2006, 08:13:02 pm »
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Oddity in state legislative elections this year: 

It looks like the only legislative chamber in the country to flip from Dem to GOP will be the Montana House, where it was tied at 50-50 before and will now be 50R-49D-1C, as the first Constitution party member ever won a state House seat.

Also interesting is that the state Senate there appears to have moved from 27D-23R to 25D-25D.

Exactly. When will people realize that the "Montana Miracle" was really the "Martz Miracle." Gov. Judy Martz essentially gave the Governorship, the State House and the State Senate to the Democrats.
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