🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 3.0

[Mike88]

There are now three candidates: Francisco Assis (PS), again José Pedro Aguiar-Branco (PSD) and Manuela Tender (CHEGA).

Popcorn anybody?

[Antonio the Sixth]

There are now three candidates: Francisco Assis (PS), again José Pedro Aguiar-Branco (PSD) and Manuela Tender (CHEGA).

Popcorn anybody?

Nailed it

[Mike88]

Second ballot result any minute now.

[Mike88]

2nd ballot results:

90 Francisco Assis (PS)
88 José Pedro Aguiar Branco (PSD)
49 Manuela Tender (CHEGA)
  2 Blank
  1 Absent

A 3rd ballot between Francisco Assis and Aguiar Branco will now start.

[Mike88]

Voting is now over and the ballots are being counted, but the mood is that the deadlock will continue.

[Mike88]

3rd ballot results:

90 Francisco Assis (PS)
88 José Pedro Aguiar-Branco (PSD)
52 Blank

The deadlock continues. A new vote will happen tomorrow at 12pm. 2 MPs on the left voted in blank, PCP maybe?, while all 50 CHEGA MPs voted, again, in blank.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Chega just deciding to throw any hope of achieving credibility as a parliamentary force out the window from the very start, huh?

It's really something when you make Le Pen look like a master political strategist by comparison.

[crals]

I hope those more than 1 million voters are very happy right now.

[Mike88]

Chega just deciding to throw any hope of achieving credibility as a parliamentary force out the window from the very start, huh?

It's really something when you make Le Pen look like a master political strategist by comparison.

I believe that CHEGA never wanted, or wants, to have credibility. They want to be anti-everything, without assuming any responsibility. But that was already known, in the end the main culprit is the PSD, who acted like complete amateurs and "trusted" Ventura's word. I myself thought that Ventura would be satisfied with some “sweets”, but no, he will stretch and stretch the cord until, well, it breaks.

I hope those more than 1 million voters are very happy right now.

To be honest, the 1,2 million votes in CHEGA were a massive "middle finger" to the establishment parties. Nothing has changed in that, so far.

[Mike88]

With the 4th ballot starting in just 30 minutes, there's still no candidate from PS or PSD. Only CHEGA presented one, Rui Paulo Sousa.

The PSD and PS leaders held a meeting to try to resolve the situation, and the deadline to submit candidacies was extended until 11:30am.

[Mike88]

Update: New extension in the deadline to submit candidacies. Parties have until 2pm to present names. The ballot will start at 3pm.

[Mike88]

Rumours that PSD and PS reached a deal and that it will be a rotating Speakership. We'll see if it's really the case.

[Mike88]

Indeed, there is a "deal" between PSD and PS for a rotating Speaker:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1772971981064777908

From what Expresso learned, from the conversations between Pedro Nuno Santos and Luís Montenegro that took place this morning, a solution emerged of a legislature divided into two, in the presidency of the Assembly of the Republic.

In this agreement, the PSD would get the Speaker's chair for first two years (2024-2026) and then the PS for the rest of the legislature (2026-2028). Aguiar-Branco (PSD) will be on the ballot against the CHEGA candidate this afternoon.

Party reactions: PSD and PS caucuses "applauded" the deal, while CHEGA, as expected, is furious and says that they will now "lead the Opposition". IL says that Ventura is just a "child" and that because of him, there will be a PS Speaker in 2026. BE criticizes the PSD-PS deal and will vote against, CDU says that this deal is to pursue "rightwing policies", Livre also criticizes the deal saying it "devalues" Parliament, while PAN agrees with the deal.

The question is: Will this Parliament last until 2026? Highly debatable.

[Mike88]

The 4th ballot is now starting.

[Mike88]

4th ballot results:

160 José Pedro Aguiar-Branco (PSD) Elected
  50 Rui Paulo Sousa (CHEGA)
  18 Blank

[Mike88]

A summary of the last 48 hours:

Parties are now giving their first speeches and, as of now, PAN and CDS are "trashing" CHEGA.

The ballot to elect the new deputy Speakers, four in total, will now start. Will CHEGA elect a deputy Speaker? We'll see.

[Mike88]

All Deputy Speakers elected:

169 Marcos Perestrello (PS) Elected
  57 Blank
    1 Invalid

144 Rodrigo Saraiva (IL) Elected
  82 Blank
    1 Invalid

140 Teresa Morais (PSD) Elected
  86 Blank
    1 Invalid

129 Diogo Pacheco de Amorim (CHEGA) Elected
  97 Blank
    1 Invalid

[Red Velvet]

So in the end it’s a PS and PSD deal to isolate CHEGA in which the first two years will have a PSD leadership and the last two years a PS leadership.

Sounds confusing but props to Portugal if this really works out! It’s a great message to send, the far-right either gets support for a full majority or else every vote for them will always be the same as nothing since they cannot do politics and compromise with anyone.

[Mike88]

Madeira snap election on 26 May:

https://twitter.com/JornalNoticias/status/1773094666738774160

Marcelo confirms dissolution of the Madeira Parliament and elections on May 26th

As expected, Madeira will go again to the polls. After hearing parties represented in the regional Parliament and the Council of State, President Marcelo decided to call snap elections for 26 May. Miguel Albuquerque even tried, in a somewhat desperate/ridiculous attempt, to present a solution with the current Parliament but Marcelo rejected.

So in the end it’s a PS and PSD deal to isolate CHEGA in which the first two years will have a PSD leadership and the last two years a PS leadership.

Sounds confusing but props to Portugal if this really works out! It’s a great message to send, the far-right either gets support for a full majority or else every vote for them will always be the same as nothing since they cannot do politics and compromise with anyone.

This will not last long. CHEGA has now a tone of full Opposition against Montenegro, and the PS doesn't want to be seen as the "life support" of the AD government. Like I wrote above, if this government reaches Christmas 2024, I will be very surprised.

[Mike88]

New government revealed by Luís Montenegro and presented to President Marcelo:

https://twitter.com/expresso/status/1773430628177862804

17 ministers, two of State, seven women: these are the names of Luís Montenegro's Government for the XVI Legislature.

The 24th Constitutional Government was revealed today and approved by President Marcelo. The new government will be sworn in next Tuesday, 2 April 2024. The 17 names, plus the PM:

- Prime Minister: Luís Montenegro (PSD)

- Minister of State and Foreign Affairs: Paulo Rangel (PSD)
- Minister of State and Finance: Joaquim Miranda Sarmento (PSD)
- Defense Minister: Nuno Melo (CDS)
- Parliamentary Affairs Minister: Pedro Duarte (PSD)
- Minister of the Presidency: António Leitão Amaro (PSD)
- Economy Minister: Pedro Reis (PSD)
- Justice Minister: Rita Júdice (PSD)
- Internal Affairs Minister: Margarida Blasco (Ind.)
- Deputy and Territorial Cohesion Minister: Manuel Castro Almeida (PSD)
- Labour, Solidarity and Social Security Minister: Maria Rosário Palma Ramalho (Ind.)
- Health Minister: Ana Paula Martins (PSD)
- Infrastructure and Housing Minister: Miguel Pinto Luz (PSD)
- Education, Science and Innovation Minister: Fernando Alexandre (Ind.)
- Environment and Energy Minister: Maria Graça Carvalho (PSD)
- Youth and Modernization Minister: Margarida Balseiro Lopes (PSD)
- Agriculture and Fishing Minister: José Manuel Fernandes (PSD)
- Culture Minister: Dalila Rodrigues (Ind.)

[Mike88]

Reactions from the media is that the new government is basically the "silver from the PSD house", although much better was near impossible due to the complicated political situation of Parliament. The mood remains that the government has low, if not zero, chances of lasting until the end of the year.

Party reactions: PSD and CDS, as expected, applauded the composition of the new government, while CHEGA critcized the government for having just "PSD people" and few independens and that it's too long. IL criticized the creation of a Youth ministry, but applauded the independents in the new cabinet. The PS says that the government "look like a regression" and will only creat instability. BE had the same tone saying the new government "smells like the past", while PCP pressed that the new government will not solve any problem. Livre criticized the fusion of some ministers and the lack of more civil society in cabinet. PAN applauded the new Youth minister but is worried with the inclusion of CDS in government warning of "setbacks in gender equality".

[Flyersfan232]

Reactions from the media is that the new government is basically the "silver from the PSD house", although much better was near impossible due to the complicated political situation of Parliament. The mood remains that the government has low, if not zero, chances of lasting until the end of the year.

Party reactions: PSD and CDS, as expected, applauded the composition of the new government, while CHEGA critcized the government for having just "PSD people" and few independens and that it's too long. IL criticized the creation of a Youth ministry, but applauded the independents in the new cabinet. The PS says that the government "look like a regression" and will only creat instability. BE had the same tone saying the new government "smells like the past", while PCP pressed that the new government will not solve any problem. Livre criticized the fusion of some ministers and the lack of more civil society in cabinet. PAN applauded the new Youth minister but is worried with the inclusion of CDS in government warning of "setbacks in gender equality".

maybe if chega wasnt so toxic they could have been in cabinet too

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Reactions from the media is that the new government is basically the "silver from the PSD house", although much better was near impossible due to the complicated political situation of Parliament. The mood remains that the government has low, if not zero, chances of lasting until the end of the year.

Party reactions: PSD and CDS, as expected, applauded the composition of the new government, while CHEGA critcized the government for having just "PSD people" and few independens and that it's too long. IL criticized the creation of a Youth ministry, but applauded the independents in the new cabinet. The PS says that the government "look like a regression" and will only creat instability. BE had the same tone saying the new government "smells like the past", while PCP pressed that the new government will not solve any problem. Livre criticized the fusion of some ministers and the lack of more civil society in cabinet. PAN applauded the new Youth minister but is worried with the inclusion of CDS in government warning of "setbacks in gender equality".

maybe if chega wasnt so toxic they could have been in cabinet too

It’s not even that they’re toxic, they also completely refused to play ball when the PSD came to them and apparently worked out some agreement before CHEGA just decided not to do it and deny the meeting happening despite previously talking about it.

[Mike88]

Reactions from the media is that the new government is basically the "silver from the PSD house", although much better was near impossible due to the complicated political situation of Parliament. The mood remains that the government has low, if not zero, chances of lasting until the end of the year.

Party reactions: PSD and CDS, as expected, applauded the composition of the new government, while CHEGA critcized the government for having just "PSD people" and few independens and that it's too long. IL criticized the creation of a Youth ministry, but applauded the independents in the new cabinet. The PS says that the government "look like a regression" and will only creat instability. BE had the same tone saying the new government "smells like the past", while PCP pressed that the new government will not solve any problem. Livre criticized the fusion of some ministers and the lack of more civil society in cabinet. PAN applauded the new Youth minister but is worried with the inclusion of CDS in government warning of "setbacks in gender equality".

maybe if chega wasnt so toxic they could have been in cabinet too

It’s not even that they’re toxic, they also completely refused to play ball when the PSD came to them and apparently worked out some agreement before CHEGA just decided not to do it and deny the meeting happening despite previously talking about it.

Yep, CHEGA continues to toy with wanting to be in power and be just a protest party, two completely contradictory positions, but whatever. The close result between AD and the PS, fuels the "chaos strategy" of CHEGA as they can "blackmail" PSD with bringing them down at any time, and then point that PSD cannot govern without them. If AD had a much more comfortable win, things would probably be different, Azores is an example.

Because of this bipolar strategy of CHEGA, plus the PS' position, it's very likely that this Parliament and Government will not last. Unless, the EU results, polls start suggesting that a 2nd election is harmful for the PS and it would be better to maintain the current government.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

As I normally do, fully proportional results:

Portugal 2024

AD*: 69 seats (-11)
PS: 67 seats (-11)
CH!: 43 seats (-7)
IL: 12 seats (+4)
BE: 10 seats (+5)
CDU: 8 seats (+4)
L: 8 seats (+4)
PAN: 5 seats (+4)
ADN: 4 seats (+4)
RIR: 1 seat (+1)
JPP: 1 seat (+1)
ND: 1 seat (+1)
PCTP/MRPP: 1 seat (+1)

* including MP and the PPM Madeira votes

PCTP/MRPP [0.5754 quotas] gets the last seat over BE [10.4864 quotas] by 2396 votes.

What would the coalition dynamic be here? Would the same PSD-PS rotating speakership liable to collapse at any minute be the eventual decision? And how much of a clownshow would ensue with the 1 seat parties+ADN?