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Author Topic: Fox/OD sub-polls  (Read 4929 times)
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« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2004, 08:55:31 pm »

so FOX is wrong by roughly their margin of error, ie most statistical ties are probably in Kerry's favor slightly but may show Bush due to a slight bias.  I think that that's reasonable.
I think I understand what you're saying Tongue

The only caveat is if your name is Scott Rasmussen.  Then you would have no problem combining multiple polls over a long term period.  Then, my poll averages can be viewed as composite polls with the entire sample size Tongue  That'd give me a real small MOE!

Seriously, though, Fox/ODs bias seems to be about 3%-ish in Bush's favor... maybe a little more (it's impossible to say which poll is precisely correct, but the poll median is around 24%, putting Fox/OD off of that by about 5%).

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« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2004, 10:43:22 pm »

Another interesting Fox poll tidbit.  Looking at ALL of the Fox Polls with Nader involved they have NEVER shown Kerry ahead,most the other polls have shown Kerry leading at some poimt.  Out of all the pollsters that have had a bunch of polls Fox/OD is the ONLY one not to show Kerry up with Nader at ANY point, AP has also shown Bush ahead the whole time,but they have  fewer total polls than the other big ones.  So out of the pollsters with more than a couple polls only Fox & AP have shown Bush leading all the way, and with all the pollsters that have come out with more than 5 polls ONLY Fox has not shown Kerry leading at any points in the Nader polls.

TIPP/IBD has not had Kerry up since March.

The CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll have also not had Kerry up since early March.  Yes, this is different from other Gallup polls due to CNN and USA Today altering the question wording/methodology.

AP/Ipsos has had 3 polls, all with Bush up.

Zogby has not had Bush up since early April.

Fox has had several ties.

The 2 previous Gallup polls before this one was CNN/USA Today/Gallup both had Kerry ahead

TIPP hasn't shown Kerry up since March in polls with Nader,

Anyway my point is out of ALL the pollsters with Nader, Fox is the ONLY pollster not to have Kerry ahead at any point with the exception of the pollsters which only have a few polls out.  Most the pollsters (ARG, Gallup, TIPP, FOX, CBS, ABC, Zogby) have  quite a few polls out and out of those only Fox has never shown Kerry ahead

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