Futures of losing house candidates

[Jake]

I don't see him overcoming a 12 point whipping in a Democratic year, even giving him those advantages. Face it, King's pretty much going to hold the seat until retirement, or until the NY Assembly finds a way to redistrict him out of it.

[Conan]

Larry Kissell, Mary Jo Kilroy and Dan Seals should and could win 2008. Patsy Madrid, Lois Murphy and Diane Farrell should not run again.

Agreed but Madrid isnt out yet.

[Conan]

I think the prospects of 2008 for dems are actually pretty good for us. We'll have more money because of incumbency and we have a better idea of where to target with money.

[Keystone Phil]

Both Fitz and Hart will be back and that's all I care about. I just hope they win.

I honestly don't know about Fitz...an article in phillyburbs.com (courier's website) kinda indicated that he was thinking about sticking to private life if he lost. The guy has kids to raise, send to college etc.

Though if he doesn't come back...we're gonna need someone like Jim Greenwood to come and take down Murphy who will have the advantage of incumbency which is usually a big deal here.

If not Jim, my list is small...Tommy Tomlinson? Maybe, Diloramo? eh not enthusiastic...they're gonna need someone who can carry central and upper bucks (who look down on lower bucks) while keeping Murphy's advantage in Lower Bucks to a minimum.

Realisticly, do you think Jim Greenwood will enter just 4 years after retiring?  Especially after a year like this.  I think Fritzpatrick will run and lose again, but by a wider margin, but I do not know a ton about the district.

Well, I think the way PA 08 is, they're gonna give a new guy a shot to hold his seat...unless national issues are so controlling...like in 06 (Fitz was/is pretty darn popular...Bush cost him.)

I dunno...they would have to coax Greenwood big time.

Though I just thought of another name. Mark Schweiker...another famous R from my township...but he'd need to remind people now who he is...if he even wanted it.

I really dislike Greenwood so I am happy to say that he won't be back (making big time bucks...no pun intended ). I really like Schweiker but it saddens me to say that he is also making a nice living. Neither will be back. If Fitz doesn't run again, I don't know who to turn to. How about the DA, bullmoose?

[bullmoose88]

Both Fitz and Hart will be back and that's all I care about. I just hope they win.

I honestly don't know about Fitz...an article in phillyburbs.com (courier's website) kinda indicated that he was thinking about sticking to private life if he lost. The guy has kids to raise, send to college etc.

Though if he doesn't come back...we're gonna need someone like Jim Greenwood to come and take down Murphy who will have the advantage of incumbency which is usually a big deal here.

If not Jim, my list is small...Tommy Tomlinson? Maybe, Diloramo? eh not enthusiastic...they're gonna need someone who can carry central and upper bucks (who look down on lower bucks) while keeping Murphy's advantage in Lower Bucks to a minimum.

Realisticly, do you think Jim Greenwood will enter just 4 years after retiring?  Especially after a year like this.  I think Fritzpatrick will run and lose again, but by a wider margin, but I do not know a ton about the district.

Well, I think the way PA 08 is, they're gonna give a new guy a shot to hold his seat...unless national issues are so controlling...like in 06 (Fitz was/is pretty darn popular...Bush cost him.)

I dunno...they would have to coax Greenwood big time.

Though I just thought of another name. Mark Schweiker...another famous R from my township...but he'd need to remind people now who he is...if he even wanted it.

I really dislike Greenwood so I am happy to say that he won't be back (making big time bucks...no pun intended ). I really like Schweiker but it saddens me to say that he is also making a nice living. Neither will be back. If Fitz doesn't run again, I don't know who to turn to. How about the DA, bullmoose?

Gibbons? Possible, but she wouldn't have the star power of a Greenwood (who you have to admit Phil, is perfect for this district, now more than ever) or a Schweiker who has one of PA's big surnames.

[jerusalemcar5]

Yes sir.

If Maffei couldn't beat Walsh in a bad year for Republicans, especially in the NE (when Clinton and Spitzer cleaned up), I don't see when he could beat him.

I will say this, Maffei's campaign wasn't really inspiring and only seemed to turn towards that direction in the last week. Given more time it could have happened.

But the possibility remains we may have reached a minimum on the number of seats for the GOP (under current) lines in Upstate NY...its not really a republican area...more 50-50 or 53-47 republican at best, but that means its gonna be really hard to eliminate every elephant up here.

Losing isn't always that bad. McNerney lost horribly to Pombo 2 years ago in CA-11. As for NY-25, it actually voted for Kerry, so a Presidential year might help the Democrats there.

It will probably go democrat presidentially again...unless a guliani or maybe mccain type run...but they seem to like Jim Walsh (voted against NAFTA etc) for some reason.

I will say this, it surprises me that he does so well here in Ononadoga County...with Syracuse as the big city (snicker)...the rest of the area doesn't look terribly affluent...

1)Maffei was a horrible candidate.  He was an import.  I'd love Syracusse City Council President Bea Gonzalez to run, but we'll see. 

2)Yes Walsh is very well liked, but Walsh will not be reelected again.  I'd be shocked if he ran.  But now he is vulnerable, in a Dem district, and people found out he isn't really moderate.

3)Go to Manlius.  We're affluent here.  But wouldn't that mean Walsh would do better, not worse?  Republicans do better with affluence for the most part.

4)25th will definitely go Democratic when Walsh leaves.  There are no high level Republicans except Onondaga County Executive Nick Pirro, but his age will probably discourage a run.

[Smash255]

I don't see him overcoming a 12 point whipping in a Democratic year, even giving him those advantages. Face it, King's pretty much going to hold the seat until retirement, or until the NY Assembly finds a way to redistrict him out of it.

In the last re districting the district was made a bit more Republican.  Dems have a new registration advantage and the gap has finally approached what it was prior to the last redistricting.
Something like 1/3 of the electorate still didn't know who Mejias was in late Oct.  He runs again he will be more well known than that and have a much closer $$ advantage.  Also another Mejias challenge isn't the only one who can be a tough challenge to King.  Suozzi would no doubt be a VERY VERY tough battle for King, even with the embarassment of the Gubneatorial Primary.  In fact Suzzoi would more than likely beat King.  Nassau DA Kathleen Rice could make a run against King as well, and would be a very tough challenge for King.

[jimrtex]

I noticed that. Do you think most voters simply didn't connect that they had the chance to vote for her again?

I think that a certain percentage of voters don't have a clue.  They probably thought they had two congressman and one senator.  When they got down to the second race and had a choice between Lampson and Smither, they decided they didn't like either choice and skipped the race.

[HardRCafé]

Dan Maffei, Victoria Wulsin, Charlie Stuart, and Nancy Skinner should run in 2008.

I have met Nancy Skinner.  She is not someone a Democrat interested in victory would want to run again.

That said, she is a lot nicer offstage than onstage.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Nancy Johnson will be a big-pharm lobbiest.  Her days in politics are over.

[Keystone Phil]

I just read an article about Fitzpatrick's fall and after thinking about it, I doubt he'll run again. The article points out (and I feel the same way) that Fitz never seemed to like the mean spirits of Washington. Let there be no doubt that if he wants to come back, I will be the first to support him but I think he's had enough now. He worked so hard, accomplished so much, was well liked but got screwed over.

[Sam Spade]

One Republican loser who will definitely be back in some form or another is Anne Northup.  I would be surprised if Melissa Hart doesn't return also.

On a comment here:  Patsy Madrid was a terrible candidate.  The Dems in NM will try someone else again (and probably fail) in trying to get rid of Heather Wilson.

[TeePee4Prez]

Both Fitz and Hart will be back and that's all I care about. I just hope they win.

I honestly don't know about Fitz...an article in phillyburbs.com (courier's website) kinda indicated that he was thinking about sticking to private life if he lost. The guy has kids to raise, send to college etc.

Though if he doesn't come back...we're gonna need someone like Jim Greenwood to come and take down Murphy who will have the advantage of incumbency which is usually a big deal here.

If not Jim, my list is small...Tommy Tomlinson? Maybe, Diloramo? eh not enthusiastic...they're gonna need someone who can carry central and upper bucks (who look down on lower bucks) while keeping Murphy's advantage in Lower Bucks to a minimum.

I'm thinking State Sen. Joe Conti is your only shot at this point.  Lower Bucks is what won it for Fitz in 2004 and Murphy in 2006.  Ditto to NE Philly.  Conti would have to run it up in Central Bucks to beat Murphy though.

[Adlai Stevenson]

One Republican loser who will definitely be back in some form or another is Anne Northup.  I would be surprised if Melissa Hart doesn't return also.

On a comment here:  Patsy Madrid was a terrible candidate.  The Dems in NM will try someone else again (and probably fail) in trying to get rid of Heather Wilson.

But surely Northup is tainted by the stigma of defeat?  Don't you have a theory she wants to challenge Ernie Fletcher in the 2007 GOP gubernatorial primary? 

Melissa Hart will probably run against Altmire again in 2008.  Her loss was  a blow to the Republicans who saw her as a future Governor or Senate candidate. 

[Jake]

But surely Northup is tainted by the stigma of defeat?  Don't you have a theory she wants to challenge Ernie Fletcher in the 2007 GOP gubernatorial primary? 

Northrup lost once. She's no more tainted than Chandler, who lost in 2003. It's not like a scandal sunk her, she just lost because her district favored Democrats and it was a Democratic year.

[Sam Spade]

One Republican loser who will definitely be back in some form or another is Anne Northup.  I would be surprised if Melissa Hart doesn't return also.

On a comment here:  Patsy Madrid was a terrible candidate.  The Dems in NM will try someone else again (and probably fail) in trying to get rid of Heather Wilson.

But surely Northup is tainted by the stigma of defeat?  Don't you have a theory she wants to challenge Ernie Fletcher in the 2007 GOP gubernatorial primary? 

Melissa Hart will probably run against Altmire again in 2008.  Her loss was  a blow to the Republicans who saw her as a future Governor or Senate candidate. 

Northup challenging Fletcher is simply a mere theory of mine right now.  It may turn out to be true or not.  But the idea that she's gone in politics is probably not going to be correct long-term.  She's only 58.

I'll throw out a couple of names for you that you might recognize now and ask who, of the Republican candidates who were defeated, most reminds you of these people:

Maria Cantwell
Ted Strickland

These were both incumbent House Dem. Reps. who lost in 1994.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

 I think that Hart and maybe Narthrup will run again (I think she will challenge Fletcher), but it is way to early tell if they would win.  Why was Nebraska's 2nd district so close?  Undecided race update: the Pryce-Kilroy and Schmidit-Wilson races won't be decided until around nov. 20th or 21st.  Also, Richert is leading in Washington's 8th district with 70% of votes counted (51%-49%). 

[Sam Spade]

I think that Hart and maybe Narthrup will run again (I think she will challenge Fletcher), but it is way to early tell if they would win.  Why was Nebraska's 2nd district so close?  Undecided race update: the Pryce-Kilroy and Schmidit-Wilson races won't be decided until around nov. 20th or 21st.  Also, Richert is leading in Washington's 8th district with 70% of votes counted (51%-49%). 

Few people seem to understand this, but NE-02 is the most liberal CD in Nebraska, containing inner Omaha.  Bush got 60% here in 2004, and 57% in 2000. (NE-01 voted about 63% Bush in 2004 and 59% in 2000).

In 2004, Lee Terry got 61% of the vote, right about even with national numbers.  In 2002, he got 63%.  In 2000, he got 64%.  I can't seem to find the 1998 results, when he was first elected.

In short, it is quite possible that there is a downward trend since 2000 in his numbers down to the partisan mean, but a 5% shift towards the Democrat this year in comparison to the partisan mean is not surprising for 2006, since that's the basic average shift I've been noticing throughout the country in nearly ever Congressional race.

Of more important note is Lee Fortenberry's (NE-01) gain of 5% from 54% in 2004 to 59% in 2006.  He won this open House seat in 2004 by a fairly tight margin, but the 2006 numbers (where it appears he ran even to ahead of the national mean for 2006 (with the -5% shift, not 2004) seem to indicate that he's entrenched himself in this CD and will be impossible to beat in the future, barring scandal.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sam, do you think the Democrats have a shot at beating any of the Nebraska reps in 2008?  I know it is VERY early and that Fortenberry is safe and Terry probably is as well, but if Kleeb ran would he stand a real shot of beating Smith?

[Sam Spade]

Sam, do you think the Democrats have a shot at beating any of the Nebraska reps in 2008?  I know it is VERY early and that Fortenberry is safe and Terry probably is as well, but if Kleeb ran would he stand a real shot of beating Smith?

In a Presidential year, the short answer is no.  I sincerely doubt conditions will be more favorable to Democrats in 2008 than 2006; in fact, they may not be this favorable again for quite a while into the future.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think that Hart and maybe Narthrup will run again (I think she will challenge Fletcher), but it is way to early tell if they would win.  Why was Nebraska's 2nd district so close?  Undecided race update: the Pryce-Kilroy and Schmidit-Wilson races won't be decided until around nov. 20th or 21st.  Also, Richert is leading in Washington's 8th district with 70% of votes counted (51%-49%). 

Few people seem to understand this, but NE-02 is the most liberal CD in Nebraska, containing inner Omaha.  Bush got 60% here in 2004, and 57% in 2000. (NE-01 voted about 63% Bush in 2004 and 59% in 2000).

In 2004, Lee Terry got 61% of the vote, right about even with national numbers.  In 2002, he got 63%.  In 2000, he got 64%.  I can't seem to find the 1998 results, when he was first elected.

In short, it is quite possible that there is a downward trend since 2000 in his numbers down to the partisan mean, but a 5% shift towards the Democrat this year in comparison to the partisan mean is not surprising for 2006, since that's the basic average shift I've been noticing throughout the country in nearly ever Congressional race.

Of more important note is Lee Fortenberry's (NE-01) gain of 5% from 54% in 2004 to 59% in 2006.  He won this open House seat in 2004 by a fairly tight margin, but the 2006 numbers (where it appears he ran even to ahead of the national mean for 2006 (with the -5% shift, not 2004) seem to indicate that he's entrenched himself in this CD and will be impossible to beat in the future, barring scandal.

I know I noticed that Fortenberry did a lot better than in 2004.  And I was almost sure that he would either go down or win re-election very tightly.  NE-1 and KS-2 were my two adoptive House seats that I thought the Democrats might win.  Nancy Boyda won 51%-47% and Maxine Moul lost 59%-41%.  I didn't expect either candidate's fortune to turnout like that.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm thinking State Sen. Joe Conti is your only shot at this point.  Lower Bucks is what won it for Fitz in 2004 and Murphy in 2006.  Ditto to NE Philly.  Conti would have to run it up in Central Bucks to beat Murphy though.

Conti is not going to run as a Republican for any office in the future. Mark my words.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, I just got some good news....     

[Alcon]

Oh, I just got some good news....     

Recount in the Senate race?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Oh, I just got some good news....     

Recount in the Senate race?

sh**t, I was hoping they wouldn't find those 700,000 Santorum votes that they forgot to count.