How the NRCC stopped the wave

[MarkWarner08]

Despite the resignation of Tom DeLay, Bob Ney  Randy "Duke" Cunnigham, the Jack Abramoff scandal, a GOP base angry at fiscal profligacy  NCLB and the Medicare legislation, Republicans won 8/10 closest House races and 14/23 overall closest House races.

Why? Because of the NRCC's team of staffers who perceived the weakness of Jean Schmidt and Barbra Cubin before the DCCC did. Barbara Cubin will not be vulnerable again until at least 2010. If Gary Trauner spending almost $1 million and knokcing on 15K doors couldn't beat her, than how can Joe Democrat beat her in a Presidential election year?

Tom Reynolds, the consistently on message head of the NRCC, helped give advice, money and other help to Deborah Pryce, Heather Wilson, Dave Reichert, Chris Shays and Steve Chabot. All five won despite a stiff wind in their faces. Reynolds also provided crucial GOTV help to Robin Hayes who won by a scant 346 vote margin.

Reynolds own race was a guide to fellow Republicans in trouble. He urged them to run negative campaigns that targeted their opponents voting records or personal problems and to focus on the pork the brought home.The reason Sue Kelly lost wasn't that too voters in NY-19 liked Orleans, it was because she didn't bring back enough pork.

NY-20, TX-22, OH-18, PA-07, PA-10 and CA-11 are just half a dozen examples of districts that were lost because of scandal. When the battlefield was fair, the NRCC rarely lost seats. The message of this election was that unless your a scandal tarred GOP incumbent who beats his mistress or is under FBI investigation, you're likely to prevail because of gerrymandering and the savvy NRCC.

[RBH]

Hell, the robocalls probably helped.

Granted, they probably cost the Republicans both New Hampshire seats.

[MarkWarner08]

Hell, the robocalls probably helped.

Granted, they probably cost the Republicans both New Hampshire seats.

Even worse news for Democrats is that OK Rep. Tom Cole, a Republican strategist extraordinaire is likely to lead the NRCC in 2008.

[RBH]

Yeah, Cole is going to be better than Reynolds.

For one thing, the Oklahoma Democratic Party doesn't have a great shot at finding someone to actually press Cole.

Plus, Cole was at the NRCC from 1991 to 1995.

But, the DCCC should make sure that the Dems stay on the offensive, and that they make sure that the Republicans are defined as going against various good things in the Democratic agenda.

The Democrats should seriously target at least 20 more incumbents for 2008, just to make it harder for the Republicans to make serious gains in 2008.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How wasn't this a wave? Sure, it would have gone worse for them if they weren't willing to do anything to win.  George Allen tried lying robocalls to intimidate the voters, but those didn't quite save him.

However, the Democrats won more House seats than the Republicans won in 1994.

[MarkWarner08]

Yeah, Cole is going to be better than Reynolds.

For one thing, the Oklahoma Democratic Party doesn't have a great shot at finding someone to actually press Cole.

Plus, Cole was at the NRCC from 1991 to 1995.

But, the DCCC should make sure that the Dems stay on the offensive, and that they make sure that the Republicans are defined as going against various good things in the Democratic agenda.

The Democrats should seriously target at least 20 more incumbents for 2008, just to make it harder for the Republicans to make serious gains in 2008.

It going to be hard to stay on the offensive with Carol Shea- Porter, Nick Lampson, Joe Donnelly, Baron Hill, Dave Loebsack, Zack Space, Tim Mahoney and Jerry McNerney all in GOP districts.

[sethm0]

 I think the DCCC did a better job overall, form candidate recruitment to message control. the NRCC was able to mitigate the loses somewhat because they had so much more money than the DCCC and were able to run more ads/calls. This probably made the difference between the 30ish seat swing and a 45ish seat swing.

 That said, waves don't happen all by themselves. If the DCCC had been urn poorly, this could have easily been only a 10-15 seat gain.

[Conan]

NRCC was able to fend off a lot of losses therefore they did better in my book.

[MarkWarner08]

How wasn't this a wave? Sure, it would have gone worse for them if they weren't willing to do anything to win.  George Allen tried lying robocalls to intimidate the voters, but those didn't quite save him.

However, the Democrats won more House seats than the Republicans won in 1994.

GOP beat 34 Democratic incumbents in 1994; Democrats beat 23 in 2006.

[RBH]

Lampson is pretty vulnerable, but mainly because he didn't have to spend a lot defining himself because of the DeLay thing.

Loebsack's district went for Kerry.

I think that Shea-Porter's district was close too.

Both New Hampshire districts could end up a lot like Long Island. Where the district is close presidentially, but the Dems hold two seats easily.

As for the rest..

there'll be enough positives in the agenda for them to hold strong ground. And we have enough numbers to let a few of them stray without losing the vote.

The GOP Incumbents will be playing on our field when it comes to the agenda.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think that Shea-Porter's district was close too.

Yeah, Bush only won it with 51% and I think it will go Democratic in 2008.

Both New Hampshire districts could end up a lot like Long Island. Where the district is close presidentially, but the Dems hold two seats easily.

The 2nd district went for Kerry by 5% and is trending blue rapidly. It should become a fairly safe Democratic seat.

[Rococo4]

Really it cpuld have been worse....those who expected a battle from the beginning faired decently considering the environment.  Those who didnt see it until it was too late faired not as good.  The scandal seats were losses we deserved, except I am not sold on the Weldon won, though it is possible he would have lost anyways.

[Gustaf]

I also think the GOP did a much better job. Once you take out those who retired to run for other office and those who got killed by scandals, the Democrats only picked up about 20 seats. That isn't really much of a wave, especially when you consider most of those seats were in Democratic areas, bound to fall as soon as things got better for Democrats.

[Smash255]

Lampson is pretty vulnerable, but mainly because he didn't have to spend a lot defining himself because of the DeLay thing.

Loebsack's district went for Kerry.

I think that Shea-Porter's district was close too.

Both New Hampshire districts could end up a lot like Long Island. Where the district is close presidentially, but the Dems hold two seats easily.

As for the rest..

there'll be enough positives in the agenda for them to hold strong ground. And we have enough numbers to let a few of them stray without losing the vote.

The GOP Incumbents will be playing on our field when it comes to the agenda.

The LI districts were closer in 04 due to the 9/11 bump, but are generally going to be solid victories for Dems on the Pres level.

[Beet]

Given the conditions, the Republicans did better by a decisive hair. But I dont think you can put all the blame on the DCCC because the NRCC got a lot more money from the RNC.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think the kerry comment and the conveniently-timed Saddam verdict had a lot to do with rallying the base to avoid utter disaster.

Also, I think robo-calls, voter supression and initmidation, and glitches with electronic voting played a role as well.

[Eraserhead]

If this wasn't a wave, I can't wait to see a real one. Every Republican I know is acting like they entered the Great Depression.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Yeah, Cole is going to be better than Reynolds.

For one thing, the Oklahoma Democratic Party doesn't have a great shot at finding someone to actually press Cole.

Plus, Cole was at the NRCC from 1991 to 1995.

But, the DCCC should make sure that the Dems stay on the offensive, and that they make sure that the Republicans are defined as going against various good things in the Democratic agenda.

The Democrats should seriously target at least 20 more incumbents for 2008, just to make it harder for the Republicans to make serious gains in 2008.

It going to be hard to stay on the offensive with Carol Shea-Porter, Nick Lampson, Joe Donnelly, Baron Hill, Dave Loebsack, Zack Space, Tim Mahoney and Jerry McNerney all in GOP districts.

Loebsack's District voted 55%-44% for Kerry in 2004 and Shea-Porter's voted only 51%-48% for Bush.