Does George Allen have a chance at John Warner's seat in 2008?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Since its looking very likely that John Warner, the senior senator from Virginia, will retire in 2008 because of his age.  Do you think George Allen conceded defeat on Thursday, November 9, to set himself up for a run for John Warner's seat?  George Allen's killed his own presidential hopes during his summer and fall campaigning.  His only hope now to get back into politics is running for the other Virginia Senate seat.

My guess is he is going to try it again.  Though, he won't make a move until John Warner announces his decision.  He won't try to face John Warner in a primary should he not retire and he would just wait to challenge Jim Webb again in 2012.

I think George Allen will have a pretty decent shot of winning, too, depending on who his Democratic opponent is and what the mood of the nation is like at that time.

Your thoughts?

[agcatter]

A very good shot - especially with Hillary at the top of the Democratic ticket.  That will help Republicans all the way up and down the ballot in the South.  McCain will carry Virginia by a wide margin vs the ice queen.

[gorkay]

He may be thinking about it. I suspect that one of the main reasons he didn't call for a recount is because he can point to it as evidence of what a great guy he is when he runs for office again. If Mark Warner runs, though, he may decide to sit it out and go for something else. The governorship in 2009 is a possibility, although there is a Republican Lt. Gov. and AG in VA who may think they have a better right to the GOP nomination.
Whether or not Hillary Clinton gets the Democratic nomination in 2008 will have very little effect on the race one way or the other.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Allen's out of Virginia politics.  He really is incompetent and comes across as stupid on TV.  I think Warner's handpicked successor is Randy Forbes anyway and the GOP would prefer a new face for 2008.  Allen is tied to all the scandal of 2006. 

[Keystone Phil]

I was thinking about this. I think he and Warner have certainly spoken about it.

[cp]

Allen might try, but he'd be handicapped from the outset because of the experience from 2006. The Virginia GOP isn't going to want to nominate someone who A: lost and B: lost, not because of the anti-incumbent surge or the unpopular president, but by his own foot-in-mouth campaign style.

Allen's defeat was entirely his own doing, and he'll have a lot of trouble convincing GOP officials (not to mention money) to support him for something that big again.

[Virginian87]

My congressman, Tom Davis, has made no secret about his ambitions for that Senate seat.  My guess is that he will be the nominee for the Republicans in 2008, assuming he doesn't have to fight through a nasty primary.

I think Allen is done as a politician in Virginia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it just me, or does Allen look a little... ahem... "tired and emotional" in this photo?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Maybe if he sews his mouth shut.

[NewFederalist]

Is it just me, or does Allen look a little... ahem... "tired and emotional" in this photo?

You mean like he just found out he had lost the election and the bottle of Jack Daniels he had opened a few hours ago was gone?!?

[okstate]

I doubt Allen runs, but even if he did, if Mark Warner chose to run for the Democrats it would be a Dem pickup.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If John retires, hopefully Mark runs.

[Eraserhead]

He might but only if Mark doesn't run (which he hopefully will).

[Kevin]

In order to get back into politics and be successful Allen is going to have to reinvents himself which I don't know how nad he is really, really going to have to watch what he say's and what he also does in front of the cameras as I noticed that during one debate with Webb Allen was picking his noise. However if Allen like I said reinvents himself and watch what he say's he should have a decent chance at making a huge comeback into national politics.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Rick Santorum has a better chance at the seat than George Allen.

The seat is Mark Warner's if he wants it and I hope he does. =)

[Virginian87]

It will be most likely Tom Davis vs. (Insert Democrat here).  If Mark Warner runs, the seat is his.  If not, then we may face an uphill battle.  Davis is a moderate from the suburbs who appeals very nicely to independents, and it would be very difficult to paint him as a right-wing ideologue.  His district (the 11th) went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004, and went for Webb by huge margins.  But despite the Democratic tilt of the district, he still remains popular.

[Adlai Stevenson]

It will be most likely Tom Davis vs. (Insert Democrat here).  If Mark Warner runs, the seat is his.  If not, then we may face an uphill battle.  Davis is a moderate from the suburbs who appeals very nicely to independents, and it would be very difficult to paint him as a right-wing ideologue.  His district (the 11th) went for Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004, and went for Webb by huge margins.  But despite the Democratic tilt of the district, he still remains popular.

On the plus side the Democrats would pickup his district if he ran.  The best thing that could happen is Warner running for the seat: he would beat Davis.  In any case, I think Davis will have opposition in the GOP primary.  I mentioned Randy Forbes but there is also Jo Ann Davis and possibly Jerry Kilgore?  Also, isn't Davis up to run the NRCC in 2008?  If so then he might have to put aside his senatorial ambitions. 

[Virginian87]

On the plus side the Democrats would pickup his district if he ran. 

Don't be too sure.  Davis's (second) wife, JeanneMarie Devolites Davis, is my state senator (Remember, I live in the 11th).  She may very well run for his House seat if he runs for Senate.  I don't think it would be a cakewalk, but she certainly could win.  Personally, I think the best Democratic candidates for the open seat would be Chap Petersen, a young, charismatic, and popular former state delegate from Fairfax (he lost to Leslie Byrne in the Lt. Governor primary last year) and Del. Steve Shannon of Vienna, who defeated an entrenched Republican candidate and is a social moderate.  I know Shannon personally, and he would make a fine congressman.

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Kilgore's done.  And I mean done.  You'll never see him run in a Commonwealth-wide race again.

I don't know about Jo Ann Davis or Randy Forbes.  Davis may actually be too conservative to win statewide (trust me, she's nuts; she's Virginia's Marilyn Musgrave).  I didn't even know Forbes wanted to run.  The only other congressman I know who may seriously consider a Senate run is Bob Goodlatte, and he might be able to win statewide (I think he'd lose Northern Virginia, unless a liberal Dem from Arlington or Richmond City runs).