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Author Topic: Bush up 47-40 in latest Fox News Opinion Dynamics Poll  (Read 7958 times)
Smash255
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« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2004, 05:33:26 pm »
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This is 5 different polls.  The main one is where the blue states come from.  AN error in there woudl not effect the 4 state polls, unless there was a systemic problem.

The polls do also support a number of recent polls too, Survey USA in FL, the Harris and Tipp nationals, and carry the trend for MI, PA and OH.  

It is likely the method is overpolling Bush a bit, but not by a whole lot.


Harris poll was over a week ago.  Since then ALL the other polls have showed it close the ABC Poll had its issues the other direction.

7 of the 8 previous PA polls showed Kerry ahead exception Rasmussen by 1 9 of the last 10 MI polls including 5 in a row have showed Kerry ahead in MI.  Ohio polls have gone back & forth the entire way.  ALL FL polls have been close, Survey USA poll that showed Bush up 7 was shown to be flawed with an overampling of Reps  (the poll had something like Reps identity +7 in its sample, when the state is actually Dems +2)

So you are telling me to ignore a poll that is a week old in the national and pay attention to several month old polls on the state level?  See the contradiction?

ALso, since Harris has been a TIPP/IBD poll that had Bush up.

The Survey USA poll used self identification, they pointed this out and said it may be due to the Reagan funeral that they were skewed toward Bush.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Look there and tell me where the national trend lines are.

I was going back further for the state polls because you said you didn't trust the newer Ohio polls that showed Kerry ahead.  The bottom line is as far as the Ohio pokks its been back & forth.

The +2 for Dems was also in the 2000 exit polls for FLA, the Reagan so called boost could impact the results to a point, but its not going to have a 9 point swing in identity.

TIPP had Bush up 3 with Nader, tie without Nader.  Gallup has Bush +1 both with & without Nader, Democorocy Corps has Kerry +1 without Nader and even with Nader.  So the TIPP poll, Gallup & Democrocy Corps all show it really close, meanwhile ABC & Fox don't
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ATFFL
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« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2004, 06:04:41 pm »
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A few things.  First, the Republicans have had a better registration effort in FL the past 4 years.

Second, this is self identification.  You can have 100% ID themselves as republican and not be wrong, if that is what they all say.   During the Reagan funeral a huge swing to the Republicans seems about right.  They did the right thing by pointing out that this had occured.

Finally, on all the polls being all over the place, ain't it fun?  
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #27 on: June 24, 2004, 06:59:10 pm »
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Yet another reason never to trust the lying Faux News Channel.
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Lunar
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« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2004, 07:00:14 pm »
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Yet another reason never to trust the lying Faux News Channel.

Like they lied in 2000 when they NAILED the result perfectly?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2004, 07:07:09 pm »
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That proves that they knew what the result was going to be and that the whole "election" was a fraud.

Brit Hume needs to get his smug face off the airwaves.
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« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2004, 07:19:15 pm »
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Yeah.  That sure proves it alright.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #31 on: June 24, 2004, 07:34:08 pm »
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That proves that they knew what the result was going to be and that the whole "election" was a fraud.

Brit Hume needs to get his smug face off the airwaves.

Right, because the vast right wing conspiracy decided the best thing for them would be to lose the popular vote and win on a tight recount in Florida.  Yeah, that was the plan.

Or how about the time Fox found out about Saddam Hussein's plans to kill his 2 son-in-laws that had defected to Jordan and did not tell anyone so they could keep their Baghdad bureau open.

Wait, that was CNN, America's most trusted news network.  My bad.
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Lunar
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« Reply #32 on: June 24, 2004, 07:58:14 pm »
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That proves that they knew what the result was going to be and that the whole "election" was a fraud.

Brit Hume needs to get his smug face off the airwaves.

Let's pretend for a moment that you aren't in denial and everything you just said is true.  This poll would become MORE accurate because they know what the result will be again..
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #33 on: June 24, 2004, 08:00:40 pm »
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This poll would become MORE accurate because they know what the result will be again..

...thus making the whole system even more corrupt than I thought.

I'd like to know why ABC had the result of the 1998 election for Texas governor up on its site a day before the so-called election occurred.
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« Reply #34 on: June 24, 2004, 08:03:39 pm »
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This poll would become MORE accurate because they know what the result will be again..

...thus making the whole system even more corrupt than I thought.

(Remember, we're still playing pretend)

Oh, it's just about as corrupt as you thought.  Fox News cheated to predict the election and they would have just cheated again.

It still disproves your original argument that we shouldn't trust the poll because of the source.
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agcatter
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« Reply #35 on: June 24, 2004, 08:17:13 pm »
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ABC is now part of the right wing conspiracy.

Bhahahahahahahahaha
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« Reply #36 on: June 24, 2004, 08:18:58 pm »
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ABC is now part of the right wing conspiracy.

Bhahahahahahahahaha

All forms of media are in his opinion.  He argued the LATimes was just the other day.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #37 on: June 24, 2004, 08:20:57 pm »
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I notice you folks haven't denied that ABC did in fact post the results of a so-called election before the election even took place.
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« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2004, 08:25:54 pm »
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Nope.  I don't.  The election was fixed.  Everyone knows that in Texas, a Republican couldn't possibly win a statewide election unless the election was fixed.

I guarantee that ABC was in on it.  That closet conservative Peter Jennings was no doubt the ring leader.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2004, 08:27:37 pm »
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Nope.  I don't.  The election was fixed.  Everyone knows that in Texas, a Republican couldn't possibly win a statewide election unless the election was fixed.

I guarantee that ABC was in on it.  That closet conservative Peter Jennings was no doubt the ring leader.

I thought James Carville was the closet Conveervative...?

Did I miss the last meeting of the vast right wing conspiricy?

e-mail me the minutes ... ok ...?
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ATFFL
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« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2004, 08:29:15 pm »
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Nope.  I don't.  The election was fixed.  Everyone knows that in Texas, a Republican couldn't possibly win a statewide election unless the election was fixed.

I guarantee that ABC was in on it.  That closet conservative Peter Jennings was no doubt the ring leader.

I thought James Carville was the closet Conveervative...?

Did I miss the last meeting of the vast right wing conspiricy?

e-mail me the minutes ... ok ...?

I'll have the UFO drop it off for you in a few hours, if you can wait that long.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #41 on: June 24, 2004, 08:36:52 pm »
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Nope.  I don't.  The election was fixed.  Everyone knows that in Texas, a Republican couldn't possibly win a statewide election unless the election was fixed.

I guarantee that ABC was in on it.  That closet conservative Peter Jennings was no doubt the ring leader.

I thought James Carville was the closet Conveervative...?

Did I miss the last meeting of the vast right wing conspiricy?

e-mail me the minutes ... ok ...?

I'll have the UFO drop it off for you in a few hours, if you can wait that long.

I am actually in a hurry...

If I take off my tin foil hat can you use the UFO to beam it directly into my brain using the pentagon's new mind control beam?
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Rococo4
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« Reply #42 on: June 24, 2004, 10:05:41 pm »
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Lay off Brit Hume....he is great.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #43 on: June 24, 2004, 10:09:25 pm »
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Brit Hume is a dour man with the credibility of a dried booger.

There's also this one reporter on one of the other networks who sort of looks like Brit Hume except he constantly smirks and grins at stuff that isn't funny. He gives me the creeps too.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #44 on: June 24, 2004, 10:44:14 pm »
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Nope.  I don't.  The election was fixed.  Everyone knows that in Texas, a Republican couldn't possibly win a statewide election unless the election was fixed.

I guarantee that ABC was in on it.  That closet conservative Peter Jennings was no doubt the ring leader.

I thought James Carville was the closet Conveervative...?

Did I miss the last meeting of the vast right wing conspiricy?

e-mail me the minutes ... ok ...?

I'll have the UFO drop it off for you in a few hours, if you can wait that long.

I am actually in a hurry...

If I take off my tin foil hat can you use the UFO to beam it directly into my brain using the pentagon's new mind control beam?

I used the time machine.  Its in your mailbox as of 4 hours ago.
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agcatter
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« Reply #45 on: June 24, 2004, 10:45:03 pm »
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not credible like you, eh bandit?
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Smash255
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« Reply #46 on: June 24, 2004, 10:51:46 pm »
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A few things.  First, the Republicans have had a better registration effort in FL the past 4 years.

Second, this is self identification.  You can have 100% ID themselves as republican and not be wrong, if that is what they all say.   During the Reagan funeral a huge swing to the Republicans seems about right.  They did the right thing by pointing out that this had occured.

Finally, on all the polls being all over the place, ain't it fun?  

Well it tends to show inaccuracy.  The Republicans have made gains in vopter drives thats true, but Florida has also seen an increase in women's population and Non-Cuban Hispanics.  So the overall what was added was preety equal.

Anyway point is when the Voter ID in the polls is so far off from the overall id of the state that shows the poll has problems.  The LA Times poll which was inaccurate to the left at a Voter ID of +14 to the dems (+10 over the Nat'l average of +4 dems) this poll had voter ID of +7 to the Republicans which is +9 in favor of the Reps over the state ID of +2 Dems.  So both polls are off about the same.  I'm not saying the Survey USA poll was biased, what I'm saying is its accuracy is a problem because the sample was a much heavier representation of Republicans than the state actually has
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #47 on: June 24, 2004, 11:17:51 pm »
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We interupt this thread for a "I hate the LA Times, they are a bias Yellow Journalism Rag" interuption

Re: LA Times VS SUSA.

The "correct" National voter ID is +4 to the Dems (2000 Exit polls) or +2 (Rolling average of National polls)

If we use +4, the LA Times missed by 9%

IN a poll of 1230 sample size, the chance that this is random error is about 7 chances in 10,000.

The LA Times AVERAGE party ID over their last 8 polls has been +11 to the Dem side.

I don't think it is random. - I invite anybody to argue it is Smiley

Survey USA had +4 to the GOP side, about 7% too high based on current registrations. - With their smaller sample size, about a 2% chance it was just random.

Also - SUSA clearly published the voter ID, the LA times went to extra-ordinary lengths to bury it.

SUSA TWICE on their release said "Hey - Reagan just died - All bets are off on this sample!" (or words to that effect) - The LA Times went to great lengths to DEFEND +13 as normal.

A hell of a moral and intelectual honesty related difference! (I hope Dems and GOPers alike will agree?)

Survey USA is also even handed - they miss left as often as they miss right. - A claim the LA Times cannot make.

A HUGE difference between the conduct of the two firms IMHO.

If you want to argue that the LA Times survey and the SUSA Florida were both off, hey I agree with you.

To argue that the moral integrity of the two outfits is even CLOSE to the same, I think is something that is a hard argument to make.

We apologize for this interuption - please return to your thread
« Last Edit: June 24, 2004, 11:22:18 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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jfern
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« Reply #48 on: June 25, 2004, 01:47:20 am »
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ABC is now part of the right wing conspiracy.

Bhahahahahahahahaha

Wait a minute.

Does anyone like ABC?
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Rococo4
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« Reply #49 on: June 25, 2004, 10:57:42 am »
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Brit Hume is a dour man with the credibility of a dried booger.

There's also this one reporter on one of the other networks who sort of looks like Brit Hume except he constantly smirks and grins at stuff that isn't funny. He gives me the creeps too.

Well based on your picture, Ill take Hume for a TV face
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