Bush up 47-40 in latest Fox News Opinion Dynamics Poll (user search)
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  Bush up 47-40 in latest Fox News Opinion Dynamics Poll (search mode)
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Author Topic: Bush up 47-40 in latest Fox News Opinion Dynamics Poll  (Read 10520 times)
The Vorlon
Vorlon
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Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« on: June 24, 2004, 02:38:31 PM »


Considering it makes me all the more likely to believe it.  FOX was one of the top two firms for the 2000 result I believe.

The final Opinion Dynamics/Fox news poll of 2000 predicted a dead heat between Vice President Gore and then Governor Bush.

A "fairly" good call I believe Smiley
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The Vorlon
Vorlon
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Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2004, 02:47:56 PM »


Your right.  Fox/Opinion Dynamics called the race dead on in 2000.  This poll must be accurate.

No... it means Opinion Dynamics is a good firm with relatively few structural flaws and biases in their polls.

The "probability god" can smack them around just as badly as any other poll.
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The Vorlon
Vorlon
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Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2004, 03:10:11 PM »

Whats the % undecided etc? Hang on a minute... I'm commenting on a national poll... sh*t... breaking me own rules... I'll go now...

Come on in... National polls are fun... Smiley
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The Vorlon
Vorlon
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*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2004, 03:15:51 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2004, 03:19:43 PM by The Vorlon »

Whats the % undecided etc? Hang on a minute... I'm commenting on a national poll... sh*t... breaking me own rules... I'll go now...

Come on in... National polls are fun... Smiley

What was the % of undecided then? Wink

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The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2004, 08:27:37 PM »

Nope.  I don't.  The election was fixed.  Everyone knows that in Texas, a Republican couldn't possibly win a statewide election unless the election was fixed.

I guarantee that ABC was in on it.  That closet conservative Peter Jennings was no doubt the ring leader.

I thought James Carville was the closet Conveervative...?

Did I miss the last meeting of the vast right wing conspiricy?

e-mail me the minutes ... ok ...?
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The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2004, 08:36:52 PM »

Nope.  I don't.  The election was fixed.  Everyone knows that in Texas, a Republican couldn't possibly win a statewide election unless the election was fixed.

I guarantee that ABC was in on it.  That closet conservative Peter Jennings was no doubt the ring leader.

I thought James Carville was the closet Conveervative...?

Did I miss the last meeting of the vast right wing conspiricy?

e-mail me the minutes ... ok ...?

I'll have the UFO drop it off for you in a few hours, if you can wait that long.

I am actually in a hurry...

If I take off my tin foil hat can you use the UFO to beam it directly into my brain using the pentagon's new mind control beam?
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The Vorlon
Vorlon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,660


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -4.21

« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2004, 11:17:51 PM »
« Edited: June 24, 2004, 11:22:18 PM by The Vorlon »

We interupt this thread for a "I hate the LA Times, they are a bias Yellow Journalism Rag" interuption

Re: LA Times VS SUSA.

The "correct" National voter ID is +4 to the Dems (2000 Exit polls) or +2 (Rolling average of National polls)

If we use +4, the LA Times missed by 9%

IN a poll of 1230 sample size, the chance that this is random error is about 7 chances in 10,000.

The LA Times AVERAGE party ID over their last 8 polls has been +11 to the Dem side.

I don't think it is random. - I invite anybody to argue it is Smiley

Survey USA had +4 to the GOP side, about 7% too high based on current registrations. - With their smaller sample size, about a 2% chance it was just random.

Also - SUSA clearly published the voter ID, the LA times went to extra-ordinary lengths to bury it.

SUSA TWICE on their release said "Hey - Reagan just died - All bets are off on this sample!" (or words to that effect) - The LA Times went to great lengths to DEFEND +13 as normal.

A hell of a moral and intelectual honesty related difference! (I hope Dems and GOPers alike will agree?)

Survey USA is also even handed - they miss left as often as they miss right. - A claim the LA Times cannot make.

A HUGE difference between the conduct of the two firms IMHO.

If you want to argue that the LA Times survey and the SUSA Florida were both off, hey I agree with you.

To argue that the moral integrity of the two outfits is even CLOSE to the same, I think is something that is a hard argument to make.

We apologize for this interuption - please return to your thread
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