Who is the swing vote in the new Senate?

[Mr. Morden]

While, the Democrats now have a numerical majority in the Senate, Harry Reid is faced with the inconvenient fact that one Democrat, Ben Nelson, seems to vote with the majority of Republicans on most close votes.  With Lincoln Chafee gone, there is no corresponding Republican to offset Nelson's vote.  Sure, there are moderate Republicans like Collins and Snowe, but does their voting record actually put them to the left of moderate Dems like Landrieu and Bill Nelson?  So, while it certainly depends on the issue, who would be most likely to provide the 51st vote on contentious issues?  I would guess Collins and Snow would be the swing votes on a lot of issues (I'm only talking about things that make it to an up or down vote--ignoring filibusters).  Anyone else agree/disagree?  If you like, you can break it down into economic, social, and foreign policy issues.

Don't just give a name and leave it at that.  Whoever you mention as the swing vote, say which Democrats (if any) would be to that person's right, and which Republicans (if any) would be to that person's left.

[Jake]

Both Snowe and Collins routinely vote well to the left of the Republican Caucus, while Ben Nelson routinely votes to the right of the Democratic Caucus. Since Nelson is Senator #51, it stands to reason that he'd be the swing vote, though I would respect arguments that say Snowe and Collins are to his left. I'd say that control of the Senate agenda has remained in the hands of GOP moderates in that case, much as it has for the past decade.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

1: Ben Nelson (D-Nebraska)

2: asorted moderate reps strugling to be radical enough to win and moderate dems strugling to be moderate enough to win

3: Joe Libermen former DINO, former CFLINO he is currently trying to find out a way to switch bodies with Ned Lamont so he can become Joe Liberman in name only

[opebo]

2: asorted moderate reps strugling to be radical enough to win and moderate dems strugling to be moderate enough to win

Hah.  I'm sorry but it is just funny to see someone use the word 'radical' in connection with any US senator!

[Deano963]

She already said she will vote for Bolton.

No, she didn't.

I saw that interview on Hardball. She said IF he met certain criteria she would vote for him. Her criteria included Bolton being someone who she thought could forge alliances at the UN, not destroy them and who could represent the U.S. with class and diplomacy at the U.N.

Those are some might big IFS when you are talking about John Bolton my friend.

And she also said that she was not pleased that the President was trying to ram through Bolton's nomiantion beofre the new Congress comes in as well. She said the new Senators should get a vote on the man who is going to represent the country to the U.N.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

2: asorted moderate reps strugling to be radical enough to win and moderate dems strugling to be moderate enough to win

Hah.  I'm sorry but it is just funny to see someone use the word 'radical' in connection with any US senator!

I was making a joke, (although I do think moderates in both parties will become far greater swing votes than in the past).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

She already said she will vote for Bolton.

No, she didn't.

I saw that interview on Hardball. She said IF he met certain criteria she would vote for him. Her criteria included Bolton being someone who she thought could forge alliances at the UN, not destroy them and who could represent the U.S. with class and diplomacy at the U.N.

Those are some might big IFS when you are talking about John Bolton my friend.

And she also said that she was not pleased that the President was trying to ram through Bolton's nomiantion beofre the new Congress comes in as well. She said the new Senators should get a vote on the man who is going to represent the country to the U.N.

Ok, calm down.

I was told she would vote for Bolton from FreeRepublic.

Thats a reliable source...

[bullmoose88]

I could see Lieberman, Webb, and Nelson (NE) being swing votes in different circumstances...

but if you're looking at a Jeffords/Chafee type during the days of slim/nominal  R control, I don't think there is one in the D caucus

[Mr. Morden]

According to National Journal's Senate rankings:

http://nationaljournal.com/voteratings/sen/lib_cons.htm?o1=con_composite&o2=desc

in 2005, Collins had the most liberal voting record of any Republican, save Chafee, who'll now be gone.  The only Democrat to the right of her was Ben Nelson, whose voting record is also to the right of Smith, Snowe, and Specter.  So if that were to hold up into 2007, Collins would be right at the ideological center of the Senate, *unless* one of the incoming Democrats is to the right of her.  That is of course, if you put any stock into National Journal's rankings.

[Verily]

 I have a feeling Lieberman will quickly change his tune on Iraq. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but Chuck Hagel will vote with the Democrats on Iraq so Lieberman doesn't matter.

[Conan]

Both Snowe and Collins routinely vote well to the left of the Republican Caucus, while Ben Nelson routinely votes to the right of the Democratic Caucus. Since Nelson is Senator #51, it stands to reason that he'd be the swing vote, though I would respect arguments that say Snowe and Collins are to his left. I'd say that control of the Senate agenda has remained in the hands of GOP moderates in that case, much as it has for the past decade.

Snow and Collins arent to his left. They prove time and time again with their votes they are not. I am always on senate.gov and checking votes. Rarely to I ever see them vote with majority democrats.

[Conan]

Watch for Freshman Senator Claire McCaskill

she will be a swing voter, but lean left, of course.

She already said she will vote for Bolton.

Your over thinking McCaskill, shes pretty liberal. Also to note, Boltons not coming up for a vote, he will be blocked in committee.

[nclib]

Both Snowe and Collins routinely vote well to the left of the Republican Caucus, while Ben Nelson routinely votes to the right of the Democratic Caucus. Since Nelson is Senator #51, it stands to reason that he'd be the swing vote, though I would respect arguments that say Snowe and Collins are to his left. I'd say that control of the Senate agenda has remained in the hands of GOP moderates in that case, much as it has for the past decade.

Snow and Collins arent to his left. They prove time and time again with their votes they are not. I am always on senate.gov and checking votes. Rarely to I ever see them vote with majority democrats.

If Snowe and Collins are to the right of Nelson, then what issue(s) does Nelson vote with a majority of Democrats against a majority of Republicans?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Bolton's nomination is dead. The Administration has even admitted this.