Gallup Says Bush 49/Kerry 48 head to Head 48/47 in 3 way (Likely voters)

[The Vorlon]

Click here for Gallup Poll

Job Approval drops 1% to 48% (only poll to show a drop)

Kerry up 49/44 among registered voters.

[millwx]

Click here for Gallup Poll

Job Approval drops 1% to 48% (only poll to show a drop)

Kerry up 49/44 among registered voters.

The Vorlon.... this get's back to my other point on the other thread.

You were right to point out that ABC/WP was the outlier.

However, in comparing apples-to-apples you left out the Democracy Corps poll among LV polls, which was in stark contrast to Harris (yes, Harris was during Reagan-week, but no way was that worth a 14% swing!).

And now this, Gallup.  Yes, Fox/OD matches the other polls nicely, but most of those, recall, were a little older... partially or fully during Reaganmania.  So, one could just as easily say Fox/OD is the outlier now... as the ABC/WP and Gallup match reasonably well.  No, I'm not saying Fox/OD is wrong... or right... it's just all rather convoluted... We can easily argue ABC/WP and Gallup to be outliers.  We can easily argue Fox/OD to be the outlier.  AND, interestingly, the whole apples-to-apples thing... the Gallup **LV** portion of the sample DOES match the other RV polls nicely (giving Bush a modest lead)!  Crazy.

Fortunately, being 4+ months from election day, we'll have another 34097209720389908629869234098 polls to try to get it right.  

[The Vorlon]

Click here for Gallup Poll

Job Approval drops 1% to 48% (only poll to show a drop)

Kerry up 49/44 among registered voters.

The Vorlon.... this get's back to my other point on the other thread.

You were right to point out that ABC/WP was the outlier.

However, in comparing apples-to-apples you left out the Democracy Corps poll among LV polls, which was in stark contrast to Harris (yes, Harris was during Reagan-week, but no way was that worth a 14% swing!).

And now this, Gallup.  Yes, Fox/OD matches the other polls nicely, but most of those, recall, were a little older... partially or fully during Reaganmania.  So, one could just as easily say Fox/OD is the outlier now... as the ABC/WP and Gallup match reasonably well.  No, I'm not saying Fox/OD is wrong... or right... it's just all rather convoluted... We can easily argue ABC/WP and Gallup to be outliers.  We can easily argue Fox/OD to be the outlier.  AND, interestingly, the whole apples-to-apples thing... the Gallup **LV** portion of the sample DOES match the other RV polls nicely (giving Bush a modest lead)!  Crazy.

Fortunately, being 4+ months from election day, we'll have another 34097209720389908629869234098 polls to try to get it right.  

I Really wanna go over the internals...

At the REGISTERED voter level Gallup and ABC more or less agree, with Fox being the outcast, you are correct.

TIPP (which does not push leaners so it kinda/sorta semi-"behaves" like a Likely voter poll) more or less also agrees with Gallup at the (semi-kinda) Likely voter level.

This will take some serious sorting out

[Blue Rectangle]

CNN.com has a story on the poll.

The "whom do you trust more" results show no suprises:
Economy: Kerry +13
Iraq: Bush +1
Terrorism: Bush +14 (CNN discusses the first two results and doesn't mention this one)

Bush has polled about +4-5 on Iraq, so this is a slight slip, but not likely to be significant.  The Terrorism result is in direct contradiction to the ABC/WashPost poll (which didn't fit any poll to date).

The brightest spot for Bush:
12. Would you say you and your family are better off now than you were four years ago, or are you worse off now?

                          Better off  Worse off  Same  No opinion  
2004 Jun 21-23     49               36        14           1  
1984 Jul 27-30      44               26        28           2  
1984 Jun 29-Jul 2  48               25        26           1