"Hard" news from Rasmussen reports... :)
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  "Hard" news from Rasmussen reports... :)
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Author Topic: "Hard" news from Rasmussen reports... :)  (Read 2927 times)
The Vorlon
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« on: June 24, 2004, 11:04:10 AM »

Scott Rasmussen and I have emailed back and forth quite a number of times and I finally got a straight answer on his party weighting... Smiley

I had estimated 38/35/27 Dem/Rep/Ind based on his results to date.

I was wrong...

The official word is:

39/35/26 Dem/Rep/Ind.. so I was pretty close... Smiley

As an aside... I have sent Scott a number of very deep technical questions, and he has always had a good answer.

I have not always agreed with his answers, but they were always, at the very minimum, defendable position that he took.

In other non news/news...

The huge Kerry Fathers day sample dropped off, and the Robo track now shows Bush 47/Kerry 45

Bush had a semi-strong sample on Tuesday night which is propping up Bush's "lead" in the poll right now.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2004, 11:06:39 AM »


I wonder why Rasmussen polled on Father's Day when he didn't poll on Mother's Day.
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agcatter
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2004, 11:10:42 AM »

I was wondering the same thing.
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millwx
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« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2004, 11:23:48 AM »

Bush had a semi-strong sample on Tuesday night which is propping up Bush's "lead" in the poll right now.
No surprise, but basically... seems to me it's essentially a tie.  Kerry's lead was b.s.  Now, possibly, Bush's lead is b.s.  That Tue PM sample should get "rolled out" for Saturday's release (Wed-Thu-Fri data).
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agcatter
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« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2004, 11:56:08 AM »

tie - very stable race
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CARLHAYDEN
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« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2004, 12:21:49 PM »

Scott Rasmussen and I have emailed back and forth quite a number of times and I finally got a straight answer on his party weighting... Smiley

I had estimated 38/35/27 Dem/Rep/Ind based on his results to date.

I was wrong...

The official word is:

39/35/26 Dem/Rep/Ind.. so I was pretty close... Smiley

As an aside... I have sent Scott a number of very deep technical questions, and he has always had a good answer.

I have not always agreed with his answers, but they were always, at the very minimum, defendable position that he took.

In other non news/news...

The huge Kerry Fathers day sample dropped off, and the Robo track now shows Bush 47/Kerry 45

Bush had a semi-strong sample on Tuesday night which is propping up Bush's "lead" in the poll right now.

First, remember when I suggested that Scott had really been rocked by the 2000 results and had increased the Democrat weighting in his polls?

Second, in all fairness to Scott, who has largely done a very good job, many pollsters reacted to the 2000 election in the same manner.

This is why so many polls are skewed a point or to in Kerry's favor, as the 2000 election was the best activation drive the Democrats have had in a presidential election in decades.

Given the republicans have a well run activation effort this year, and the only activation effort I have seen so far has been by the pseudo-independt committees funded by Soros et al., the electorate is more likely to resemble a normal distribution by party (or perhaps even slightly more republican than normal) in 2004.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2004, 02:52:52 PM »

I'm holding to my belief that Rasmussen is the Devil.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2004, 02:56:57 PM »

I'm holding to my belief that Rasmussen is the Devil.

I think the Jury is still out on Robo-polling

I would put myself deeply into the skeptics camp on the question.  I like to have humans in the loop.

That being said, everything I have seen and heard from Rasmussen indicated his is a good faith effort designed to try and sort things out and get his process to work.

He has an open mind, and a keen intelect.  I wish him well.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2004, 03:23:02 PM »

I sent Scotty Boy an e-mail but he hasn't responded for two months now.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2004, 05:56:42 PM »

I sent Scotty Boy an e-mail but he hasn't responded for two months now.

He takes his time to be sure Smiley

I got an email from him this morning to somethoing I sent him like 10 days ago...

He is good at answering, just really takes his time.

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