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Author Topic: New FL ARG poll  (Read 3752 times)
millwx
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« on: June 24, 2004, 07:51:57 pm »
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New poll from FL by ARG... I presume many of you have seen it already...

Kerry 47%
Bush 46%
Nader 2%

600 LV

Doesn't much compare to the Fox/OD 750 RV poll showing 48% Bush 38% Kerry.

Yes, I know RV to LV is apples to oranges, but since LV usually polls more Rep favorable, this is NOT consistent at all.  I know there's been talk that ARG is more sensitive to "losing" Reps during the summer.  Still, I find it hard to believe that the difference would be 11%, plus whatever it would take to make up for the expected LV vs RV difference.

...oh, and if you care... New poll from Idaho (why bother?Huh).  Shocker of shockers... Bush 55%, Kerry 25%.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2004, 07:53:29 pm by millwx »Logged

John
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« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2004, 07:54:14 pm »
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I PREECTED ON ELECTION NIGHT IT WILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL BUT BUSH WILL FLORIDA
50% TO 49%
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« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2004, 07:54:45 pm »
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Kerry ain't up in Florida.
Bush ain't up TEN in Florida.

My guess?  Bush up six.  Polls aren't helping me with that estimate however.
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millwx
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« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2004, 08:00:14 pm »
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My guess?  Bush up six.  Polls aren't helping me with that estimate however.
I would bet you're about right.  My thinking is that it might be a shade closer... 4-5% Bush lead.  But that's splitting hairs given the utter lack of reliable polling there.  Public Opinion Strategies (the only one I trust at this point) had Bush up 5%.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2004, 08:16:17 pm »
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My thinking is that it might be a shade closer... 4-5% Bush lead.  Public Opinion Strategies (the only one I trust at this point) had Bush up 5%.

Smart man Smiley

Snell Lake Perry - Good quality partisan Democrat firm says Bush by 4%
POS - Superior quality GOP firm says 4.9%

I take somewhere between 4-5% Smiley

The POS has actually rolled out of the last 5 average, but it says +/- the same thing as the average

« Last Edit: June 24, 2004, 08:29:44 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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MarkDel
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« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2004, 08:31:37 pm »
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If Zogby has Bush up by 4 points in Florida, then Kerry is in trouble in Florida.
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« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2004, 08:32:59 pm »
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Zogby is everywhere.   He has Bush winning Michigan but losing states that he should be safe in.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2004, 08:34:07 pm »
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If Zogby has Bush up by 4 points in Florida, then Kerry is in trouble in Florida.

It's a Zogby INTERNET poll.  I have it in the data base for amusement only.

I forgot to add "Chang's Chicken Dumpling poll" (Hot & Sour subsample) to counter balance the Zogby out.

Sorry about that Smiley
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2004, 08:37:07 pm »
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Pollbooth currently has Bush up by 3.9% in Florida.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2004, 08:40:01 pm »
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Pollbooth currently has Bush up by 3.9% in Florida.

Pretty darn close Smiley
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MarkDel
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« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2004, 08:41:32 pm »
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Vorlon,

It's an absolute shame what has happened to Zogby. I know you'll disagree, but I feel his decline as a pollster is directly related to his knew-found interest in partisan politics. When this guy started out, he was interested in building his rep and changing, to some extent, the way polling is done. But since 9/11, he has essentially become a covert agent of the Democratic Party.
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millwx
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« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2004, 08:46:34 pm »
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My thinking is that it might be a shade closer... 4-5% Bush lead.  Public Opinion Strategies (the only one I trust at this point) had Bush up 5%.
Smart man Smiley

Snell Lake Perry - Good quality partisan Democrat firm says Bush by 4%
POS - Superior quality GOP firm says 4.9%

I take somewhere between 4-5% Smiley

The POS has actually rolled out of the last 5 average, but it says +/- the same thing as the average
Because of my poll interpretation methodology, if I were to actually predict the results, were the election today, I'd make it even closer.  I'd still give it to Bush, though, by 1-2%.  But, as we've seen today, the raw polls are wild enough... we don't need to be interpreting them! Cheesy  My "official" prediction has them interpreted.  But for the sake of discussion here, I'll stick with straight-up poll numbers and go with POS Smiley
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2004, 09:06:35 pm »
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Vorlon,

It's an absolute shame what has happened to Zogby. I know you'll disagree, but I feel his decline as a pollster is directly related to his knew-found interest in partisan politics. When this guy started out, he was interested in building his rep and changing, to some extent, the way polling is done. But since 9/11, he has essentially become a covert agent of the Democratic Party.

I agree his polls have gone to hell, I do not think it is "partisan" in root however.

The thread I started entitled "Has the Zogby house of cards come tumbling down" I think amplifies that point.

I guess to me the issue is not bias.  I'll take a partisan but competent firm before I take in impartial combination of idiots...

Look at Florida:

POS (hyper-partisan GOP firm) => Bush + 4.9%
Snell Lake Perry (hyper-partisan Dem Firm) => Bush +4

Despite their clearly partisan nature - they agree on reality Smiley

The really good firms are often partisan but they also have intelectual honesty and believe that the best way to serve their political masters is to give them accurate information, regardless of what the information is.

Zogby's problem IMHO, is he is just too cheap.

It takes money to do a poll right, and there are only so many corners you can cut before it utterly blows up.

Zogby's methodology has been held together for years with bubblegum, duct tape, and chicken wire, but he has just kept adding weighting factor, after weighting factor, after weighting factor...

The amont of "voodoo" has finially overwhelmed the science is my opinion.

But regardless of the reason, yes I agree it is sad Sad



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MarkDel
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« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2004, 09:20:24 pm »
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Vorlon,

I've sort of figured out that you're in the polling business yourself in some way...do you know Zogby personally? How about another polling guy from Central NY named Jeff Stonecash?

As for Zogby's failures in recent years...have you heard him talk about 9/11 and the War on Terror? He's of Lebanese descent and he's REALLY hung up on bias against Arabs. Prior to 9/11, I had never heard him say anything even remotely partisan or political, but since then, he's said some really questionable things for a guy who is supposedly an unbiased pollster. I don't think it's mere accident that all of his mistakes in the recent past have been in favor of Democrats, then he goes out and PREDICTS that John Kerry should win the election this year barring major screwups on Kerry's part. Obviously I can't prove his polls are a result of bias, but there's a lot of circumstantial evidence against him in terms of the timing and one-sided nature of his downfall as a pollster.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2004, 09:21:26 pm by MarkDel »Logged
The Vorlon
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« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2004, 09:27:58 pm »
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Vorlon,

I've sort of figured out that you're in the polling business yourself in some way...do you know Zogby personally? How about another polling guy from Central NY named Jeff Stonecash?

As for Zogby's failures in recent years...have you heard him talk about 9/11 and the War on Terror? He's of Lebanese descent and he's REALLY hung up on bias against Arabs. Prior to 9/11, I had never heard him say anything even remote partisan or political, but since then, he's said some really questionable things for a guy who is supposedly an unbiased pollster. I don't think it's mere accident that all of his mistakes in the recent past have been in favor of Democrats, then he goes out and PREDICTS that John Kerry should win the election this year barring major screwups on Kerry's part. Obviously I can't prove his polls are a result of bias, but there's a lot of circumstantial evidence against him in terms of the timing and one-sided nature of his downfall as a pollster.

I do not know John Zogby personally.  We were both speakers at a symposium back in (I think) 1994, and shared a stage for maybe two hours.  Closest I every got to knowing him. Smiley

I also do not know Jeff Stonecash, just by reputation. (John's at a University now I think...?)

In the US, I have worked races in California (My primary stomping ground), Florida, Mississippi, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Washington State, but never New York Smiley
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MarkDel
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« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2004, 09:32:11 pm »
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Vorlon,

I know Zogby and Stonecash from the days when I was involved in politics. Zogby was in Utica and Stonecash was a Professor at Syracuse, and they used to handle the polling for the Congressman I worked for in Central New York. Decent guys, but major ego problems...LOL
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2004, 10:35:16 pm »
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Vorlon,

I know Zogby and Stonecash from the days when I was involved in politics. Zogby was in Utica and Stonecash was a Professor at Syracuse, and they used to handle the polling for the Congressman I worked for in Central New York. Decent guys, but major ego problems...LOL

A real contrast to Bob Teeter ( RIP Sad ) I worked with Mr. Teeter tangentially on campaign in 1994, (he was mainly an advisor, he did none of the "dirty hands" stuff) the man had no personal ego at all.  Totally obsessive for getting the "little" technical details right, but a super nice guy.  
« Last Edit: June 24, 2004, 10:35:58 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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MarkDel
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« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2004, 11:36:27 pm »
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Vorlon,

Never got to meet Bob Teeter, but he is definitely something of a legend in the Washington circles I used to frequent. You were surely in good company in 1994! I was out of the game by then...Capitol Hill was making me so damn cynical that I barely recognized myself...LOL
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« Reply #18 on: June 25, 2004, 01:41:02 am »
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Where are all the people saying they are SURE Kerry is getting Florida? Smiley God I love it when I'm right!


[/shameless gloating]
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