New FL ARG poll

[millwx]

New poll from FL by ARG... I presume many of you have seen it already...

Kerry 47%
Bush 46%
Nader 2%

600 LV

Doesn't much compare to the Fox/OD 750 RV poll showing 48% Bush 38% Kerry.

Yes, I know RV to LV is apples to oranges, but since LV usually polls more Rep favorable, this is NOT consistent at all.  I know there's been talk that ARG is more sensitive to "losing" Reps during the summer.  Still, I find it hard to believe that the difference would be 11%, plus whatever it would take to make up for the expected LV vs RV difference.

...oh, and if you care... New poll from Idaho (why bother?).  Shocker of shockers... Bush 55%, Kerry 25%.

[millwx]

My guess?  Bush up six.  Polls aren't helping me with that estimate however.

I would bet you're about right.  My thinking is that it might be a shade closer... 4-5% Bush lead.  But that's splitting hairs given the utter lack of reliable polling there.  Public Opinion Strategies (the only one I trust at this point) had Bush up 5%.

[millwx]

My thinking is that it might be a shade closer... 4-5% Bush lead.  Public Opinion Strategies (the only one I trust at this point) had Bush up 5%.

Smart man

Snell Lake Perry - Good quality partisan Democrat firm says Bush by 4%
POS - Superior quality GOP firm says 4.9%

I take somewhere between 4-5%

The POS has actually rolled out of the last 5 average, but it says +/- the same thing as the average

Because of my poll interpretation methodology, if I were to actually predict the results, were the election today, I'd make it even closer.  I'd still give it to Bush, though, by 1-2%.  But, as we've seen today, the raw polls are wild enough... we don't need to be interpreting them!  My "official" prediction has them interpreted.  But for the sake of discussion here, I'll stick with straight-up poll numbers and go with POS