Northern Ireland 2007

[Јas]

Ervine, in recent years, made a strong positive commitment to the peace process. He was articulate and reasoned in his pronouncements and I consider the NI political scene lessened by his absence.

I also think this represents the end of the PUP as a viable political party. Ervine held his seat on a strong personal vote ( a seat I believe he would have held onto). It is highly questionable whether the PUP will be able to retain it, or indeed find itself with any assemblyman after the elections (should they occur).

[Јas]

Dawn Purvis has been chosen as the new PUP leader and to contest his assembly seat. BBC report here


In other NI news, the Report into collusion between loyalist paramilitaries and police special branch has been released.

From BBC Report:
Police colluded with loyalists behind over a dozen murders in north Belfast, a report by the Police Ombudsman of Northern Ireland has confirmed.

What effect this will have on Sinn Féin, who are currently looking at joining the policing board is unclear.

[Јas]

Date for election set for 7 March.

[Јas]

Nominations closed today for the Assembly elections. An official list of declared candidates should be available shortly.

While it's currently expected that the DUP and SF should retain there positions as the parties with the most representatives from both communities, it will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the much smaller but more extreme parties on both flanks have in the election.

The apparant willingness of the DUP to now form an executive with SF has certainly cost it some support, for which the UKUP (Bob McCartney and co.) should be the most significant beneficiaries. The hardline approach of the leadership also as to any future breaches of party rules has also not helped matters. See this story for further details.

SF's decision to sign up to policing has also lost it some of it's hardline. Republican SF will be running 6 candidates as abstentionists, following a series of fairly public grumblings by SF members on the policing issue. However, the Electoral Commission has ruled that RSF be treated as Independents as they haven't registered with the Commission as a party. The running of former SF MLA's Geraldine Dougan in Mid-Ulster and Davy Hyland in Newry and Armagh will probably be better indicators of discontent with the policing policy though.

It's unclear how significant the electoral damage that both parties will receive because of their respective inching away from the extremes, though these issues will certainly affect both parties, at the very least, in motivating their respective hard-liners to the ballot box. Presumably though they will gain somewhat from voters closer to the centre. Anyway, should be interesting.

[Јas]

Full list of candidates available here.

Number of candidates by party:
DUP 46
UUP 38
SF 37
SDLP 35
Alliance 18
UKUP 13 (Leader, Bob McCartney, is running in 6 constituencies)
Green 13
Conservative 9
Workers 6
Make Politicians History 4 ('George Rainbow' running in the 4 Belfast constituencies)
PUP 3
Socialist 2
Labour 1
People Before Profit 1
Pro-capitalism 1
Social Environmental Alliance 1
UKIP 1
Independents 26 (incldung 6 Republican SF)

[Јas]

Nicholas Whyte's site is probably the best place for details on NI's electoral statistics. I also mention it because his prediction competition for this election is now open.

[P.J. McDuff]

Yeah that is a fantastic site, as is the CAIN website, especially historically speaking. The UKUP and RSF calling their respective bigger parties sell outs reminds me of a certain song Gerry Rafferty wrote.

Also, has anyone seen the SF party election broadcasts? It looked like a trailer they would've played before Darby O'Gill.

[Јas]

Also, has anyone seen the SF party election broadcasts? It looked like a trailer they would've played before Darby O'Gill.

Not seen the SF one, but have seen the other 3 main parties. Nothing particularly noteworthy about any of them for me.

[Јas]

My uneducated and likely hugely inaccurate predictions:

East Antrim: 3 DUP; 2 UUP; 1 AP (No change)
East Belfast: 3 DUP; 2 UUP; 1 AP (DUP to gain David Ervine's PUP seat)
East L'derry: 3 DUP; 1 UUP; 1 SF; 1 SDLP (DUP gain from UUP, close call on the final seat. So subject to change.)
Fermanagh/S Tyrone: 2 SF; 2 DUP; 1 UUP; 1 SDLP (No change on dissolution. The DUP gained from the UUP by the defection of Foster in 2003.)
Foyle: 3 SDLP; 2 SF; 1 DUP (No change)
Lagan Valley: 3 DUP; 2 UUP; 1 SDLP (UUP gain from AP. One of the toughest constituencies to call. Definitely subject to change.)
Mid Ulster: 3 SF; 1 DUP; 1 SDLP; 1 UUP (SF gain from Ind. The Independent being Geraldine Dougan who left SF in January following the acceptance of SF of policing.)
Newry & Armagh: 2 SF; 2 SDLP; 1 DUP; 1 UUP (SDLP gain from SF (!), DUP gain from Ind, SF gain from Ind). Paul Berry (Ind) lost the DUP whip following embarrassing media allegations. He's standing as an Independent this time, should be interesting to see the result. Also Davy Hyland (Ind) left SF in December also regarding the policing issue. Also should be interesting.)
North Antrim: 3 DUP; 1 SF; 1 UUP; 1 SDLP (No change)
North Belfast: 3 DUP; 2 SF; 1 SDLP (DUP gain from UUP)
North Down: 2 UUP; 2 DUP; 1 AP; 1 UKUP (No change. If the Greens get a seat anywhere it'll be here.)
South Antrim: 2 DUP; 2 UUP; 1 SDLP; 1 AP (No change)
South Belfast: 2 SDLP; 2 DUP; 1 UUP; 1 AP (DUP gain from UUP; AP gain from SF (!).)
South Down: 2 SDLP; 2 SF; 1 DUP; 1 UUP (No change)
Strangford: 3 DUP; 1 UUP; 1 AP; 1 UKUP (DUP gain from UUP, but few are safe seats here.)
Upper Bann: 2 DUP; 2 UUP; 1 SF; 1 SDLP (No change)
West Belfast: 4 SF; 1 SDLP; 1 DUP (No change)
West Tyrone: 3 SF; 1 Ind; 1 DUP; 1 UUP (SF gain from SDLP. Dogfight between SF, SDLP and UUP for the final seat. Kieran Deeny's (Ind) transfers may proove all important.)

Totals:
DUP 37
SF 23
UUP 21
SDLP 18
AP 6
UKUP 2
Ind 1

Designated Unionist: 60
Designated Nationalist: 41
Designated Other: 7

[Filuwaúrdjan]

South Antrim: 2 DUP; 2 UUP; 1 SDLP; 1 AP (No change)

Disagree; I think that Ford is probably done for.

[Јas]

South Antrim: 2 DUP; 2 UUP; 1 SDLP; 1 AP (No change)

Disagree; I think that Ford is probably done for.

I think the deciding factor will be the distribution of SDLP votes. The increasing 'normalisation' of SF, will presumably make them an increasingly likely destination for lower SDLP voter preferences.

And I've also just noticed that I overlooked who the SF candidate is.
So I'll definitely be strongly considering changing the prediction there.

[Јas]

A new Ipsos-Mori/Belfast Telegraph poll has been published. Apparently, the only one of the campaign. The UUP appear to be the main losers, with the SDLP, Alliance and Greens making good ground. (Belfast Telegraph Article)

(Change on Assembly '03 in brackets)
DUP 25 (-0.6)
SF 22 (-1.5)
SDLP 20 (+3)
UUP 16 (-6.7)
Alliance 9 (+5.3)
Green 3 (+2.6)
UKUP 1 (+0.3)
PUP 1 (-0.2)
Ind 1

Thus:
Unionist 43
Nationalist 42
Other 13

Despite the DUP and SF holding on to their support in the poll, they're both having more difficulty holding onto their loacl representatives. Both parties lost another each in the last few days, for the same reasons as before. (BBC Report)

Alliance leader David Ford has predicted a 2 seat gain for the party in South Antrim and East Belfast, athe launch of the party's manifesto. Belfast Telegraph Article)

Finally, UKUP leader Bob McCartney has changed his mind on how to approach the issue of the possibility of winning more than one seat. Afetr being tole that he couldn't resign and appoint a substitute, he's decided he'd like to exercise 2 votes on 2 salaries (with the second salary donated to good causes). However, if he is elected to multiple constituencies (a big if), it seems legal action will be necessary to settle the matter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Alliance really are on 9%, I retract the statement about Ford being done. Looks like the UUP are going to take one hell of a beating though.

Btw, did Rhodri Morgan's little joke get any airtime on your side of the Irish Sea?

[Јas]

If Alliance really are on 9%, I retract the statement about Ford being done. Looks like the UUP are going to take one hell of a beating though.

Yeah, hard to know how much faith to have in the poll. If true or even reasonably accurate, the UUP will be in for a tough time. I don't know what it would take to make Empey's position insecure, but a 7% drop in support would have to be there or thereabouts.

Btw, did Rhodri Morgan's little joke get any airtime on your side of the Irish Sea?

I actually just happened upon it a few minutes ago looking through the Belfast Telegraph website. There's been nothing about it in the Dublin based media that I've come across.

Heard it, or variations on it, before. Though, what I find strange, is why was he making a joke about Paisley in a speech at a Welsh Labour Conference?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, hard to know how much faith to have in the poll. If true or even reasonably accurate, the UUP will be in for a tough time. I don't know what it would take to make Empey's position insecure, but a 7% drop in support would have to be there or thereabouts.

Agree. Though in a way it does make sense that they're doing so badly; with the DUP beginning to adopt a somewhat saner position on things, why vote UUP but out of tradition?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably because Peter Hain was in the same room at the time, though it's not like Morgan needs an excuse to tell a tasteless joke...

[Јas]

Yeah, hard to know how much faith to have in the poll. If true or even reasonably accurate, the UUP will be in for a tough time. I don't know what it would take to make Empey's position insecure, but a 7% drop in support would have to be there or thereabouts.

Agree. Though in a way it does make sense that they're doing so badly; with the DUP beginning to adopt a somewhat saner position on things, why vote UUP but out of tradition?

Yeah, fair point. I had expected the DUP in this election to continue to eat into the UUP vote, but also lose the anti-SF hardliners to UKUP et al, coming out maybe with slight gains (though there's no evidence in the poll for the latter theory).

It appears the UUP vote may have also dissipated on the other wing towards the Alliance. The UUP really have very little to hammer the DUP with that wouldn't look like hypocracy. In the absence of being able to paint the DUP to Unionist voters as unreasonable, anti-devolution no dealers or as too trusting of SF, they don't have anything of substance to campaign on.

On the nationalist side, I expected that SF would continue to gain from the SDLP voter pool with their increasing move towards normalisation, but also lose some of the hard-wing to the various ex-SF independents or Republican SF or simple abstentions. On this side, the poll flies in the face of this theory. The SDLP, a la the UUP above, are finding it more difficult to criticise SF, especially post-decommissioning and the recent acceptance of policing. (Though unlike the UUP, the SDLP probably aren't losing anything significant to the Alliance.)

I simply can't explain the SDLP gains - however I expect that even if accurate, the nationalist vote will still end up weighed more towards SF based simply on SF's much better ability to get out the vote.

Heard it, or variations on it, before. Though, what I find strange, is why was he making a joke about Paisley in a speech at a Welsh Labour Conference?

Probably because Peter Hain was in the same room at the time, though it's not like Morgan needs an excuse to tell a tasteless joke...

Fair enough, we've many a politician with similar issues I suppose.

[Silent Hunter]

I forgot this was on Wednesday...

They don't count until the following day, do they?

BTW, I'm supporting the SDLP, but only because of the PES rule.

[Јas]

I forgot this was on Wednesday...

They don't count until the following day, do they?

That's standard practice. PR-STV isn't really condusive to continuous counting from straight after the close of polls until all seats are filled.

BTW, I'm supporting the SDLP, but only because of the PES rule.

The PES rule

[Silent Hunter]

PES rule. It's my personal rule that I back the local party that's a member of the Party of European Socialists. The SDLP is the local party.

That should read "my PES rule".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, fair point. I had expected the DUP in this election to continue to eat into the UUP vote, but also lose the anti-SF hardliners to UKUP et al, coming out maybe with slight gains (though there's no evidence in the poll for the latter theory).

Isn't the DUP traditionally underestimated in polls? Perhaps, now that there's little stigma attached to voting for them, this is now the case for those hardliners instead?
Just a thought (not... really... a very nice thought, obviously).

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But will their campaign be as hilarious as last time round? With the chips and all that; unintentional self-parody is always good for a laugh

Fair enough, we've many a politician with similar issues I suppose.

To be honest I prefer politicians who are happy to get up to that sort of thing to the sort bland careerists that seem to be everywhere these days...

[Јas]

Yeah, fair point. I had expected the DUP in this election to continue to eat into the UUP vote, but also lose the anti-SF hardliners to UKUP et al, coming out maybe with slight gains (though there's no evidence in the poll for the latter theory).

Isn't the DUP traditionally underestimated in polls? Perhaps, now that there's little stigma attached to voting for them, this is now the case for those hardliners instead?
Just a thought (not... really... a very nice thought, obviously).

Yep, that's certainly possible.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

But will their campaign be as hilarious as last time round? With the chips and all that; unintentional self-parody is always good for a laugh

'Fraid not. Empey and his campaign lack any sign of personality. Even the delapidated double decker camaign bus got the axe - for shame. 

[Јas]

Amendments to my predictions:
Lagan Valley: 3 DUP; 1 UUP; 1 AP; 1 SF (Had called a UUP gain from the Alliance. Now reverted to SF gain from SDLP.)
North Down: 2 DUP; 1 UKUP; 1 UUP; 1 AP; 1 Green (From no change to now predicting a Green gain from the UUP - though this is very much a sticking your neck out call.)
Strangford: 3 DUP; 2 UUP; 1 AP (DUP gain from UKUP - may be a ridiculous call on my part, UUP loss to DUP may be the more popular speculation)
West Tyrone: 2 SF; 1 Ind; 1 DUP; 1 UUP; 1 SDLP (Reverted back to no change from SF gain on SDLP)

Remainder unchanged.

New Prediction Overall:
DUP 37
SF 22
UUP 20
SDLP 19
AP 7
UKUP 1
Ind 1
Green 1

Designated Unionist: 58
Designated Nationalist: 41
Designated Other: 9 (I presume the Greens would be here.)

[minionofmidas]

What did Morgan say?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What did Morgan say?

A very old one, of course

[minionofmidas]

That's neither offensive nor particularly funny.