2008 Senate predictions

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

This thread to be re-named "New comedy goldmine" in 2 years.

I predict that the following 2 seats will change hands:

Allard (CO) R-> D
Sununu (NH) R->D

[DownWithTheLeft]

a Democrat will unseat Jim Inofe of Oklahoma.

Not necessarily only in Inhofe retires, the GOP finds no candidate but a farmer or something and Boren or Henry runs.

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Only if the Republican is very popular and Barney Frank is the nominee would they have a shot, but I agree they could make it a race

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Maybe Candice Miller, I actually kind of agree with this one

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If your right, kudos to you but I don't think any else is currently predicting this

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Quite possible although I think Coleman will hold on

New Predictions for Me:
Republican Pickup:
LA: Kennedy def. Landrieu
NJ: Christie def. Lautenberg (but would lose to Andrews)
MT: Rehburg def. Baucus
MI: Candice Miller def. Levin
SD: Mike Rounds def. Tim Johnson

Democrat Pickup:
MS: Gene Taylor def. Chip Pickering

Slight Holds:
CO: Bill Owens def. Mark Udall
NM: Heather Wilson def. Tom Udall
NH: John Sununu def. Paul Hodes
MA: Marty Meehan def. Christy Mihos

Probably some other I'm leaving off

+4 GOP

[Keystone Phil]

New Predictions for Me:
Republican Pickup:
LA: Kennedy def. Landrieu
NJ: Christie def. Lautenberg (but would lose to Andrews)
MT: Rehburg def. Baucus
MI: Candice Miller def. Levin
SD: Mike Rounds def. Tim Johnson

Democrat Pickup:
MS: Gene Taylor def. Chip Pickering

Slight Holds:
CO: Bill Owens def. Mark Udall
NM: Heather Wilson def. Tom Udall
NH: John Sununu def. Paul Hodes
MA: Marty Meehan def. Christy Mihos

Probably some other I'm leaving off

+4 GOP

In NM, Domenici is running again and Cochran better be running again in MS.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why does no one else think Denny Rehburg would defeat Max Baucus?

[Rob]

Why does no one else think Denny Rehburg would defeat Max Baucus?

Because no one else is hackish enough to believe that?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Why does no one else think Denny Rehburg would defeat Max Baucus?

Because no one else is hackish enough to believe that?

Why is that hackish

1.) Rehburg is popular
2.) It is a presidental year
3.) He has been elected statewide
4.) MT enjoys split government and I doubt they want 2 Dem Sen and a Dem Gov

[Rococo4]

I think he could win......I don't know what he is waiting for.  It has to be now or against Tester in 2012, and I doubt he wants to wait until then.

[Keystone Phil]

Why does no one else think Denny Rehburg would defeat Max Baucus?

Because no one else is hackish enough to believe that?

It can happen. A Rehberg candidacy would be very interesting but Baucus has the clear advantage.

[Keystone Phil]

I think he could win......I don't know what he is waiting for.  

Please remember that he lost a close race to Baucus for the seat in 1996.

Because no one believes Denny Rehburg will even run against Baucus.

That isn't all that wise to completely rule it out. As stated above, he has done it before.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Why does no one else think Denny Rehburg would defeat Max Baucus?

Because no one else is hackish enough to believe that?

Why is that hackish

1.) Rehburg is popular
2.) It is a presidental year
3.) He has been elected statewide
4.) MT enjoys split government and I doubt they want 2 Dem Sen and a Dem Gov

Montana has actually only elected 2 Republican Senators total since the popular election of Senators was introduced.

[Gabu]

a Democrat will unseat Jim Inofe of Oklahoma.

Not necessarily only in Inhofe retires, the GOP finds no candidate but a farmer or something and Boren or Henry runs.

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Only if the Republican is very popular and Barney Frank is the nominee would they have a shot, but I agree they could make it a race

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Maybe Candice Miller, I actually kind of agree with this one

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If your right, kudos to you but I don't think any else is currently predicting this

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Quite possible although I think Coleman will hold on

New Predictions for Me:
Republican Pickup:
LA: Kennedy def. Landrieu
NJ: Christie def. Lautenberg (but would lose to Andrews)
MT: Rehburg def. Baucus
MI: Candice Miller def. Levin
SD: Mike Rounds def. Tim Johnson

Democrat Pickup:
MS: Gene Taylor def. Chip Pickering

Slight Holds:
CO: Bill Owens def. Mark Udall
NM: Heather Wilson def. Tom Udall
NH: John Sununu def. Paul Hodes
MA: Marty Meehan def. Christy Mihos

Probably some other I'm leaving off

+4 GOP

AND THEN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY DISBANDS AND AMERICA IS PROSPEROUS UNTIL THE END OF TIME

[Rob]

He's certainly the GOP's best possible candidate, but Baucus is very popular. He's a good fit for Montana, politically, and he's a seasoned campaigner. It's possible... just not likely.

Anyway, I think Rehberg will wait to take on the liberal Tester in 2012.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

+4 GOP

Class 1 Senators have a 24-9 Democratic split. You are predicting that Class 2 Senators would have a 25-5 Republican split. That's just crazy. If the Democrats manage to get another good election, the Republicans will be in deep sh**t.

[DownWithTheLeft]

+4 GOP

Class 1 Senators have a 24-9 Democratic split. You are predicting that Class 2 Senators would have a 25-5 Republican split. That's just crazy.

It would be 25-8, not that much different, and plus who predicted that would happen in 2004?  Everyone is quick to say the Dems will continue their success in 2006, as ppl quickly said for the GOP after 2004 and thought about a veto proof majority

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

+4 GOP

Class 1 Senators have a 24-9 Democratic split. You are predicting that Class 2 Senators would have a 25-5 Republican split. That's just crazy.

It would be 25-8, not that much different, and plus who predicted that would happen in 2004?  Everyone is quick to say the Dems will continue their success in 2006, as ppl quickly said for the GOP after 2004 and thought about a veto proof majority

Right, 25-8. In any case, the 24-9 split in Class 1 is the most lopsided in any class since the 1964-1970 Senators.

I see no reason why the Republicans will be in better shape after 2 more years. Your party should pay big time for giving us Bush.

[DownWithTheLeft]

+4 GOP

Class 1 Senators have a 24-9 Democratic split. You are predicting that Class 2 Senators would have a 25-5 Republican split. That's just crazy.

It would be 25-8, not that much different, and plus who predicted that would happen in 2004?  Everyone is quick to say the Dems will continue their success in 2006, as ppl quickly said for the GOP after 2004 and thought about a veto proof majority

Yeah, I remember republicans talking about taking

NJ
WA
FL
MI
NY
MY

I assume MY is supposed to be MD, anyway

NJ- was a real possibility up until mid-October and Kean would have won in Sept most likely

WA- Cantwell was certainly vulnerable but the wave helped her

FL- Bill Nelson was highly vulnerable but considering I was the only person supporting Katherine Harris she didn't do well.  I have to assume Jeb Bush would have smashed him

MI- If Candice Miller ran it was a possibility

NY- No, Hillary Clinton was always safe

MD- I though Steele would win going into Election Day

[Joe Biden 2020]

Jim Inhofe is very vulnerable in 2008.  He has a very unpopular rating in the state and the Democratic Party is quite strong in this state and getting stronger.  Brad Carson could run and possibly beat him.

In fact, its so strong that it will possibly make Oklahoma more competitive for the Presidential Election in 2008.  It will make it competitive enough that both parties will have to/want to spend money here.  Nobody believes me on this, but they aren't realizing that I LIVE in Oklahoma and they don't, so they have to take me at my word.

By 2020, Oklahoma will give its electoral votes to a Democrat in at least one election.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Jim Inhofe is very vulnerable in 2008.  He has a very unpopular rating in the state and the Democratic Party is quite strong in this state and getting stronger.  Brad Carson could run and possibly beat him.

In fact, its so strong that it will possibly make Oklahoma more competitive for the Presidential Election in 2008.  It will make it competitive enough that both parties will have to/want to spend money here.  Nobody believes me on this, but they aren't realizing that I LIVE in Oklahoma and they don't, so they have to take me at my word.

By 2020, Oklahoma will give its electoral votes to a Democrat in at least one election.

About the same chance as the state I LIVE in giving there's to a Republican which is about 30%.  Oklahoma an NJ though opposite, are very similar.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Here is a possibility:

Republicans take back both houses, but a Democrat wins the Presidency.

Not if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, then the Republicans will take back both house and win the presidency, I don't see a way yours happens

[DownWithTheLeft]

Here is a possibility:

Republicans take back both houses, but a Democrat wins the Presidency.

Not if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, then the Republicans will take back both house and win the presidency, I don't see a way yours happens

I dont think Shrillary will be the nominee

Remember James, now that the Democrats have squeezed congress back they'll throw you moderates under the bus again

James, do you have more in common with John Boehner and Roy Blunt or Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Charlie Rangel and Alcee Hastings

[Conan]

Anyone who thinks republicans will gain any seats at this point is crazy.  Dems look like they can pick up 2 at the least.

About the same chance as the state I LIVE in giving there's to a Republican which is about 30%.  Oklahoma an NJ though opposite, are very similar.

Except Oklahoma just reelected Brad Henry in a landslide 2-1 margin.  Just elected a Dem Lt. Gov. replacing a Republican. Just reelected a Dem state auditor and inspector. Reelected their Dem Attorney General. Elected their appointed Dem State Treasurer. 3 more dems elected to statewide office on top of that and only 1 republican elected to statewide office. New Jersey on the otherhand has no republicans in statewide office. They are not gaining ground in NJ. Dems are sweeping Oklahoma so NJ and OK are not opposites besides OK dems are more moderate.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Anyone who thinks republicans will gain any seats at this point is crazy.  Dems look like they can pick up 2 at the least.

About the same chance as the state I LIVE in giving there's to a Republican which is about 30%.  Oklahoma an NJ though opposite, are very similar.

Except Oklahoma just reelected Brad Henry in a landslide 2-1 margin.  Just elected a Dem Lt. Gov. replacing a Republican. Just reelected a Dem state auditor and inspector. Reelected their Dem Attorney General. Elected their appointed Dem State Treasurer. 3 more dems elected to statewide office on top of that and only 1 republican elected to statewide office. New Jersey on the otherhand has no republicans in statewide office. They are not gaining ground in NJ. Dems are sweeping Oklahoma so NJ and OK are not opposites besides OK dems are more moderate.

Considering NJ only has 3 statewide positions, it is much easier for one party to control them all.  Second, NJ was much closer than OK in 2004.  A drastic improvment from 2000 and we are talking presidential.

[Conan]

Anyone who thinks republicans will gain any seats at this point is crazy.  Dems look like they can pick up 2 at the least.

About the same chance as the state I LIVE in giving there's to a Republican which is about 30%.  Oklahoma an NJ though opposite, are very similar.

Except Oklahoma just reelected Brad Henry in a landslide 2-1 margin.  Just elected a Dem Lt. Gov. replacing a Republican. Just reelected a Dem state auditor and inspector. Reelected their Dem Attorney General. Elected their appointed Dem State Treasurer. 3 more dems elected to statewide office on top of that and only 1 republican elected to statewide office. New Jersey on the otherhand has no republicans in statewide office. They are not gaining ground in NJ. Dems are sweeping Oklahoma so NJ and OK are not opposites besides OK dems are more moderate.

Considering NJ only has 3 statewide positions, it is much easier for one party to control them all.  Second, NJ was much closer than OK in 2004.  A drastic improvment from 2000 and we are talking presidential.

That's not going to happen in 08. Republicans had hope in 2004. Now they do not. 3 statewide offices in NJ all controlled by dems doesnt make up for the 10+ dem statewide offices in OK.