Official New Hampshire prediction thread

[M]

I think Edwards has the potential to meke second. But it can't be because he rises enough to pass Dean... he has to rise, and Dean to fall past him. Still, it could definitely happen.

[© tweed]

I think Edwards has the potential to meke second. But it can't be because he rises enough to pass Dean... he has to rise, and Dean to fall past him. Still, it could definitely happen.

You saw what happened in Iowa, so anything's possible...

[agcatter]

Wow John, 125%?  Hell of a turnout.

[© tweed]

I Think Kerry will win Tuesday in NH & Blow Dean out of the Race
Kerry: 40%
Dean: 31%
Ewards: 20%
Clark: 19%
Limmberman: 13%
the others get 2% or 0%

123%.  Haha...he isn't getting close as time goes on.

[12th Doctor]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Kerry, Dean and Edwards will finish almost neck-neck&neck.  Dean won't leave the race until it becomes IMPOSSIBLE for him to win.  There are still a lot of states left and Dean is the only one with a 50 state organization.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I'll take a pass on NH as I did with IA.  Too hard to predict whats going on in another state involving another Party.

[© tweed]

I'll take a pass on NH as I did with IA.  Too hard to predict whats going on in another state involving another Party.

You never predict anything.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

My Prediction:

Kerry - 33%
Dean - 27%
Edwards - 19%
Clark - 12%
Lieberman - 8%
Kucinich - 1%

Nick

[© tweed]

My Prediction:

Kerry - 33%
Dean - 27%
Edwards - 19%
Clark - 12%
Lieberman - 8%
Kucinich - 1%

Nick

Dean too high there.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

My Prediction:

Kerry - 33%
Dean - 27%
Edwards - 19%
Clark - 12%
Lieberman - 8%
Kucinich - 1%

Nick

Dean too high there.

Maybe, but I'm anticipating somewhat of a Dean comeback.

Or maybe I'm just hoping for one.  I think only a strong Dean showing will prevent a Kerry blowout (which would start the press crowning him as the inevitable nominee).

Nick

[Beet]

Well if that happened the press would be partially responsible for taking Dean's speech out of context, splicing and dicing it to get the most provocative parts, playing the spliced version 500 times (the average NH voter has seen the speech a mean of over 10 times), mocking it like a broken record, and basically acting like a bunch of sharks who smell blood.

[MAS117]

As of now my prediction is (which could change)

1.) Kerry
2.) Dean
3.) Edwards
4.) Clark
5.) Lieberman

Clark and Edwards positions could change

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

You never predict anything.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/leip/ikonboard//topic.cgi?forum=12&topic=2&start=90

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I underestimated the GOP's performance in the House by only 1 seat.

And I was only a couple hundred votes in SD from going 34 for 34 in the Senate on election night.  

I know of not one pundit nor pollster who matched my performance on Nov 5, 2002.

The LA Senate runoff in Dec 2002 (knew better but stuck with my orginal call) and the LA Governor runoff in 2003 are the only two blemishes on my record since then.

[Dave from Michigan]

Dean 28%

Kerry 27%

Edwards 18%

Clark 16%

liberman 8%

others 3%

[zorkpolitics]

My Prediction:

Kerry - 33%
Dean - 28%
Edwards - 17%
Clark - 11%
Lieberman - 10%
Kucinich - 1%

[7,052,770]

Kerry--32%
Dean--28%
Clark--17%
Edwards--13%
Lieberman--9%

[jravnsbo]

Voting is beginning in N H, check it out on C-span, int he town of Dixville Notch, NH.

I knew one little town opened it at midnight.  Results in just alittle while.

[jravnsbo]

Dixville Notch results:

GOP:  Bush 11-0 YEAH!

DEms:

Clark 8

Kerry 3

Edwards 2

Dean 1

Lieberman 1

Kucinich and Sharpton   0


so looks like in early voting folks, Clark has a commanding lead of 33%

he he

[John]

I Like That too
clark might have a Early Lead But Things Might Chage
But Keep on

[jravnsbo]

I heard this morning that the economy is a plus issue for President Bush in New Hampshire.  They only have a 4.1% unemployment rate and have been doing fine compared to the national average.

Further indication I feel that NH will go to the GOP in the fall.

[NHPolitico]

Kerry: 30%
Dean: 25%
Edwards: 20%
Lieberman: 12%
Clark: 8%
Others: 5%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry: 30%
Dean: 25%
Edwards: 20%
Lieberman: 12%
Clark: 8%
Others: 5%

Well... you live there so I'd say that you probably have a better idea of what's going on than anyone else here...
Looks about right.

[jravnsbo]

I'd love Clark to be buried at 5th!  he is a terrible campaigner, that would be better served int he conspiracy of the week club with Michael Moore.

I do think Lieberman will beat expectations.

Kerry: 30%
Dean: 25%
Edwards: 20%
Lieberman: 12%
Clark: 8%
Others: 5%

[Gustaf]

I Like That too
clark might have a Early Lead But Things Might Chage
But Keep on

John, an early lead of 5 votes is not a lead at all. I don't know why I'm even bothering to explain this to you, since you're probably aware of it, but I want everyone else to notice this, it's hilarious!

[NHPolitico]

Kerry: 30%
Dean: 25%
Edwards: 20%
Lieberman: 12%
Clark: 8%
Others: 5%

Well... you live there so I'd say that you probably have a better idea of what's going on than anyone else here...
Looks about right.

Here's the early word (I still feel good about my projection)...

Kerry 36
Dean 31
Edwards 12
Clark 12

A clean third place finish hands SC to Edwards on a platter.  I think it will happen.