Taipei and Kaohsiung elections Dec 9 2007 on Republic of China

[jaichind]

See

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/25/AR2006112501238.html

Another Clash between the Pan-Blues and Pan-Greens in Taipei and Kaoshiung mayorial polls.

Pan-Greens (pro-independence) (DPP - Democratic Progressive Party, TSU - Taiwan Solidarity Union)

Pan-Blues (pro-unification) (KMT - China Nationalist Party, PFP - People First Party, NP - New Party)

PFP NP and TSU are all KMT splinter parties.

1994

Taipei City        Kaoshiung City
DPP    44          KMT    54
NP      30          DPP    39
KMT    26          NP        3


1998

Taipei City        Kaoshiung City
KMT    51          DPP    49
DPP    46          KMT    48
NP       3           NP        1


2002

Taipei City        Kaoshiung City
KMT    64          DPP    50
DPP    36          KMT    48
                        Pro-Blue independents   2

2006 Predictions

Taipei City         
KMT                                        50           
DPP                                        30       
PFP                                         13         
Pro-Blue  independent             5
TSU rebel                                 2

Kaoshiung City
KMT                                        51
DPP                                        45
TSU                                          4

[kireev]

There is a clear map of the blue vs green division in 2004 presidential election, which I found in Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Taiwan_election_2004.jpg

[jaichind]

See

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:ROC_local_election_200512.png

The 2005 election map better reflects the blue vs green divide.  2004 election had the pan-green president winning reelection by 50.1 vs 49.9 a day after he was "shot" by a person which ended up committing suicide. 
That election had an artifical swing of 5% toward the greens.

[Verily]

On the other hand, 2005 was tainted by the Pan-Green's subsequent unpopularity due to the "assassination attempt" incident, so neither really represents the political situation well. (Though the Pan-Greens will definitely struggle to regain their footing for a few years.)

[2952-0-0]

On the other hand, 2005 was tainted by the Pan-Green's subsequent unpopularity due to the "assassination attempt" incident, so neither really represents the political situation well. (Though the Pan-Greens will definitely struggle to regain their footing for a few years.)

True, the Pan Greens have been very unpopular since the shooting incident, but that was only a small reason for their unpopularity (the president has something like 15-20% approval rating now). There was all something about insider trading in Chen's family, overpaid servants, corruption here, corruption there, and perhaps the general collapse of the Taiwan Independence movement. On top of this, the KMT has had a charismatic fresh face for the last year, and Beijing has been eager to invite pan Blue leaders to visit. Thus, the current malaise for the pan-Greens.

[jaichind]

I am not sure the decline of the pan-Greens means a real weakening of the pro-independence movenment.  I think it is stronger than ever.  That Chen has not stepped down is due to deep green (radical independence) support which are about 20% of the population and about 25% of the votes.  This number is most likely higher than the level of radical independence support back in the late 1990s.  The middle of the roaders which might have been for a reformist DPP now might not vote at all throwing the election to the KMT.  As a strong pro-unificationist, I would like nothing to see the end of the pro-independence movenment.  But I am afraid it is not so.  Of course on the long run the pro-independence movenment is doom.  The PRC is just too powerful now and will be much more powerful over the next decade or two.  There is no way the pro-independence movenment on Taiwan Province can hope to confront the PLA even if it takes power.  Especially when it will take power of a house divided (pro-unificationist fifth columists like me will stab them from the behind in a coordinated assult with the PRC.)

[jaichind]

DPP did a good deal better than expected.  Results just out now.

Results

Taipei City         
KMT                                        54           
DPP                                        41       
PFP                                          4         
Pro-Blue  independent             1
TSU rebel                                 .25

Kaoshiung City
DPP                                        49.4
KMT                                        49.3
TSU                                          0.8

Last minute allegations in Kaoshiung by the DPP of KMT vote buying plus pan-green tactical voting brought a surprise victory for the DPP by .1% or 1120 votes.  No recount procedure is in place.
PFP in Taipei which was expected to get a lot of independent votes did not get them as they either did not vote or drifted to KMT or DPP.

See

2006 Predictions

Taipei City         
KMT                                        50           
DPP                                        30       
PFP                                         13         
Pro-Blue  independent             5
TSU rebel                                 2

Kaoshiung City
KMT                                        51
DPP                                        45
TSU                                          4

[Frodo]

Jaichind -other than the issue regarding unification with or independence from the People's Republic of China, what else separates the People's Democratic Party from the Nationalists?  Is one more free-market than the other?  Is one more socially conservative?  Would you happen to know? 

[WMS]

Of course on the long run the pro-independence movenment is doom.  The PRC is just too powerful now and will be much more powerful over the next decade or two.  There is no way the pro-independence movenment on Taiwan Province can hope to confront the PLA even if it takes power.  Especially when it will take power of a house divided (pro-unificationist fifth columists like me will stab them from the behind in a coordinated assult with the PRC.)

So you would support the overthrow of a democracy in favor of the national socialism of the PRC? I understand you want reunification but is it worth plunging Taiwan into tyranny?

[jaichind]

Jaichind -other than the issue regarding unification with or independence from the People's Republic of China, what else separates the People's Democratic Party from the Nationalists?  Is one more free-market than the other?  Is one more socially conservative?  Would you happen to know? 

KMT represents the business class and middle class as well urban interests.  DPP represents working class and landed/rural interests.
KMT policies of closer relationship, economic integration and eventual reunfication  with mainland China benefits the service industry and business.  While DPP independence line and economic isolation from Mainland China aids sunset industries and landed interests.
Overall, KMT votes are higher educated and richer than DPP

[jaichind]

Of course on the long run the pro-independence movenment is doom.  The PRC is just too powerful now and will be much more powerful over the next decade or two.  There is no way the pro-independence movenment on Taiwan Province can hope to confront the PLA even if it takes power.  Especially when it will take power of a house divided (pro-unificationist fifth columists like me will stab them from the behind in a coordinated assult with the PRC.)

So you would support the overthrow of a democracy in favor of the national socialism of the PRC? I understand you want reunification but is it worth plunging Taiwan into tyranny?

Well, the present PRC regime on Mainland China is very similar to the KMT regime on Taiwan Province back in the 1980s.  If you took a poll of people on Taiwan Province they would say that the 1980s was a golden era and the KMT leader Chinag Jin-Guo that ruled 1976-1988 was the one contributed most to development of Taiwan Province.  Democracy should be a means and not an end.

[Verily]

Jaichind -other than the issue regarding unification with or independence from the People's Republic of China, what else separates the People's Democratic Party from the Nationalists?  Is one more free-market than the other?  Is one more socially conservative?  Would you happen to know? 

Realistically, they have no well-defined positions beyond Independence and Unification. The DPP was (and, to some extent, remains) strongly reformist, but the KMT is no longer as corrupt as it used to be, either. Both parties contain people from across the political spectrum, and any position they take aside from on independence tends to be political posturing.

[WMS]

Of course on the long run the pro-independence movenment is doom.  The PRC is just too powerful now and will be much more powerful over the next decade or two.  There is no way the pro-independence movenment on Taiwan Province can hope to confront the PLA even if it takes power.  Especially when it will take power of a house divided (pro-unificationist fifth columists like me will stab them from the behind in a coordinated assult with the PRC.)

So you would support the overthrow of a democracy in favor of the national socialism of the PRC? I understand you want reunification but is it worth plunging Taiwan into tyranny?

Well, the present PRC regime on Mainland China is very similar to the KMT regime on Taiwan Province back in the 1980s.  If you took a poll of people on Taiwan Province they would say that the 1980s was a golden era and the KMT leader Chinag Jin-Guo that ruled 1976-1988 was the one contributed most to development of Taiwan Province.  Democracy should be a means and not an end.

I find the abrogation of political rights in favor of business growth depressing...but I get the same thing from the Castro-lovers who use health care to support their abrogation of political rights. Let's just say I disagree strongly with your last sentence and leave it at that.

[jaichind]

See

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/latestnews/46900.htm

DPP narrow victory of Dec 2007 Kaoshiung annuled.  If the DPP lose the appeal then there will be a new election and DPP candidate and "winner" Chen Ju will not be allowed to run.

[Hash]

A legislative election will be held in taiwan this year.