Bob Casey

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Somewhat humorlously, Flyers is arguing something some Republicans, especially soutly did before the election: that pro-choice economic conservatives would not vote for Casey, hence Santorum had the advantage there and in the Philly suburbs.

The argument does make sense on paper, people who are pro-choice and economically conservative do not agree with Casey on anything, while they do agree with Santorum on economic issues, so they'll vote for him. The problem is, Santorum was so far to the right on social issues, and that is what he's primarily known for, that no social liberal could vote for him, even if they didn't agree with him on much. Hell, adam/Vlad basically backed Casey for that reason. The only social liberals who voted for Santorum were people so far to the right economically they didn't vote on social issues at all.

Anyway, no biggie, Casey will be out of the seat in 2010 and we'll have a social liberal in.

[memphis]

Hindsight is 20/20.

The Democrats played it safe.  I genuinely think that was the right thing to do at the time.  Even if a more liberal candidate could have won in the end, the Democrats didn't know that when Casey was nominated.  It may have been the right decision, but it would have been a foolish one to make.

^^^^^^

Also, a guaranteed victory was a much needed break for the Dems financially as they didn't need to put as much money in the race as they would have for a liberal candidate. Also, a 20 point victory makes for a prettier map.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd vote for you over just about any Republican. Now in the primary, that depends on opposition and electability concerns. For example if I lived in Missouri and there was a primary between you and opebo, I'd MUCH prefer opebo, but would vote for you as opebo wouldn't stand a chance in the general (unless you didn't either and both would be sacrificial lambs, then I'd vote for opebo for the hilarity factor)

[Keystone Phil]

Though not closely related, I needed to find a place to put this - Casey aiming to be a bipartisan Senator - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_482485.html

[memphis]

Though not closely related, I needed to find a place to put this - Casey aiming to be a bipartisan Senator - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_482485.html

Yeah, and Bush promised to be "a uniter, not a divider." Talk is cheap. I'll believe it when I see it.

[Smash255]

I agree with Flyers on this.  Hoeffel would have defeated santorum, and close to the 8-10 range Flyers predicted.  It obviously would have been closer, but the difference between hoeffel and Casey is not going to make up an 18 point margin, nor it will make up 14 points. 

Doing some math for a minute outside of the Philly metro area (Phill, montco, Delaware, Chester & Bucks) Casey won by 8.8%.  Assuming that with Hoffel on the ticket the Metro Philly area puts up similar #'s as it did with Casey, Santorum would have needed to win the rest of the state by 17 points in order to make for his loses in SEPA..  In 2004 Bush won the rest of the state by just higher than half that 9%.  So in order to beat Hoffel, Santorum would have had to almost DOUBLE the margin outside of SEPA that Bush had 2 years earlier.  Umm no.

[memphis]

I agree with Flyers on this.  Hoeffel would have defeated santorum, and close to the 8-10 range Flyers predicted.  It obviously would have been closer, but the difference between hoeffel and Casey is not going to make up an 18 point margin, nor it will make up 14 points. 

Doing some math for a minute outside of the Philly metro area (Phill, montco, Delaware, Chester & Bucks) Casey won by 8.8%.  Assuming that with Hoffel on the ticket the Metro Philly area puts up similar #'s as it did with Casey, Santorum would have needed to win the rest of the state by 17 points in order to make for his loses in SEPA..  In 2004 Bush won the rest of the state by just higher than half that 9%.  So in order to beat Hoffel, Santorum would have had to almost DOUBLE the margin outside of SEPA that Bush had 2 years earlier.  Umm no.

Hoeffel still would have won PA,  but the DSCC would have had to give Hoeffel more money because it would have been more competitive. As evidenced by vote totals, we needed every penny in VA, MT, and MO. I'd rather have a Democratic majority with a moderate Dem in PA than a Republican majority with a liberal Dem from PA.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I agree with Flyers on this.  Hoeffel would have defeated santorum, and close to the 8-10 range Flyers predicted.  It obviously would have been closer, but the difference between hoeffel and Casey is not going to make up an 18 point margin, nor it will make up 14 points. 

Doing some math for a minute outside of the Philly metro area (Phill, montco, Delaware, Chester & Bucks) Casey won by 8.8%.  Assuming that with Hoffel on the ticket the Metro Philly area puts up similar #'s as it did with Casey, Santorum would have needed to win the rest of the state by 17 points in order to make for his loses in SEPA..  In 2004 Bush won the rest of the state by just higher than half that 9%.  So in order to beat Hoffel, Santorum would have had to almost DOUBLE the margin outside of SEPA that Bush had 2 years earlier.  Umm no.

Hoeffel still would have won PA,  but the DSCC would have had to give Hoeffel more money because it would have been more competitive. As evidenced by vote totals, we needed every penny in VA, MT, and MO. I'd rather have a Democratic majority with a moderate Dem in PA than a Republican majority with a liberal Dem from PA.

Another valid point. We got an easy pickup with a liberal in Ohio anyway, let's just be happy for that.

[12th Doctor]

In addition to that Phil, could Hoeffel run up the 60-70% Casey won in Lackwanna and Luzerne Counties? Absolutely not.

Hoeffel would have won Lackawanna with 60% and probably got in the mid 50s in Luzerne.  A sacrifice I would be more than willing to make and Hoeffel would have still won.  Hoeffel would have likely even bettered Casey's margins in the counties around Philadelphia.  Look, the Southeast would have been probably the same lock for Hoeffel even moreso than Casey.  The GOP would have NEVER overcome the Southeast especially when Santorum is unpopular in his home area after Cybergate.  Hoeffel would have won 8-10 and I stand by that.

Try running that fool against Allyson Schwartz in 2010.  I dare you!  

Well, first off, Specter is running for the Senate again, I know this because he is fundraising for himself like crazy in order to have enough money for both a probable primary challenge and the general.

Secondly, had it not been Casey, the dynamic of this race would have been completely different, so it is difficult to say for sure what the results would have been.

That being said, I disagree with your assesment that Hoeffle would have done massively better in the East than Casey.  For all our talk about how Casey didn't say anything, he said enough about his possitions for people to know that, other than being pro-life, he supported pretty much everyother liberal social possition that one could think of.  Not only that, but people knew that he was a "fiscal conservative"... he never ellaborated on this, he simply said it and then pointed out various areas where he thought Santorum was being two-faced on the issue.

Had the Democrats run your boy, then he would have run as a straight liberal, giving people in the Southeast burbs less to grasp on to, other than "he's not Santorum" which I think was pretty much maxed out as it was.

Hoeffle doesn't change the result in the Southeast.  Now, let's look at the rest of the state... I know you have trouble imagining that there is a PA outside of Philly and that that area is important, but bear with me.

Casey's landslide doesn't come from Philly, which is something we have established, it comes from the West, where he took counties that Democratic Senate cnadidates haven't taken since the 70's.  This was because of two things... #1 He was "Casey"... #2 In the minds of many, he represents the kind of "classic" Catholic Social Reformer/Jimmy Carter and HHH Democrat that people around here still find so appealing, but which the mainstream of the Democratic Party has essentially written off.  All you need to do is compare the numbers from Bush 2004 til now.  Counties that Bush won by 50-60%, Casey took at about 55-65%.  Elk County went Casey with 63%... the biggest town in the county is St Marys, so as you can guess, its a big Catholic area.  Exit polls show a massive Catholic vote shift towards Casey in this election... that's where they won it, that's where Hoeffel would stand a big chance of losing it.

To be hoenst, I didn't think Santorum was going to win 2 weeks out, I was just keeping morale up.  I was just extremely disappointed that we lost even worse than I expected to an empty suit.  That empty suit won the race for you guys, though.

Without going into too much detail, Santorum would have run a different campaign against a different opponent... and he probably should have run a different campaign against Casey.  Telling the truth came off as being mean-spirited, and what Santorum has acctually done for the state (and the list is rather impressive) got buried deep early on.  Santorum seemed to have resolved to fight a trench war in August, when he should have been gearing up for a mobile, forward moving war.  He bogged down when he should have blitzed.

Anyway, moving this race by even 5 points is huge, because it would have forced the Democrats to spend more money here, while the Republicans were already spending like mad, thus taking money out of MT, MO and VA, all races you guys needed for the majority.

Why can't you just be happy that you beat us?  I'm warning you right now, as one friend to another, if you start down the road of thinking "we can go more liberal" at every oppotunity, you guys are gonna start down a losing path in no time.

[TeePee4Prez]

I agree with Flyers on this.  Hoeffel would have defeated santorum, and close to the 8-10 range Flyers predicted.  It obviously would have been closer, but the difference between hoeffel and Casey is not going to make up an 18 point margin, nor it will make up 14 points. 

Doing some math for a minute outside of the Philly metro area (Phill, montco, Delaware, Chester & Bucks) Casey won by 8.8%.  Assuming that with Hoffel on the ticket the Metro Philly area puts up similar #'s as it did with Casey, Santorum would have needed to win the rest of the state by 17 points in order to make for his loses in SEPA..  In 2004 Bush won the rest of the state by just higher than half that 9%.  So in order to beat Hoffel, Santorum would have had to almost DOUBLE the margin outside of SEPA that Bush had 2 years earlier.  Umm no.

I'm even going to say Hoeffel would have done slightly better than Kerry outside SEPA due to the national climate, but ever so slightly.  I'll go as far as to say Cybergate hurt Santorum in Pittsburgh enough to offset some of Bush's gains in that region from 2000 to 2004.  I roughly did the math in my head and came to about 8-10 points for Hoeffel as opposed to Casey's 18 pt victory.  Joe Hoeffel had a solid grassroots effort for the Lt. Governor position, but dropped due to Rendell's wishes.    

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Frankly I think anyone with a pulse would've beaten Santorum in this national climate, just look at his approval ratings. It's pretty much impossible to see how Santorum can win. But Casey probably brought us in 2 House seats and possibly a couple Senate seats, so let's not bitch. Just be happy that worthless,bigoted piece of human garbage is out of the Senate.

I think a more interesting question is what Casey's margin of victory would've been if Santorum had kept his mouth shut the past couple years.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In any case, it's time to find the next Republican to Santorumize. I nominate the pro-war anti-stem cell research phone jammer from New Hampshire, John Sununu.

[Keystone Phil]

Though not closely related, I needed to find a place to put this - Casey aiming to be a bipartisan Senator - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_482485.html

Yeah, and Bush promised to be "a uniter, not a divider." Talk is cheap. I'll believe it when I see it.

If anything, I agree with you.

 Joe Hoeffel had a solid grassroots effort for the Lt. Governor position, but dropped due to Rendell's wishes.    

What did that consist of? Some college kids that helped run his joke "Joe Hoeffel and Friends" website for his one day campaign? Come on.

Well, first off, Specter is running for the Senate again, I know this because he is fundraising for himself like crazy in order to have enough money for both a probable primary challenge and the general.

Oh, I can't wait for that one. I've been hearing that he's running for awhile now. He's done in the primary though if someone opposes him. If Toomey could have nearly ended him in 2004, he is done in four years. Plus, Specter is going to be eighty years old in 2010. Good luck escaping the age issue there. Good thing Toomey has stayed fairly involved here.

[12th Doctor]

In any case, it's time to find the next Republican to Santorumize. I nominate the pro-war anti-stem cell research phone jammer from New Hampshire, John Sununu.

Wow... that's the closest I think we will ever get to an honest admition that turning Santorum into Dr. Evil was a deliberate, politically motivated effort and not simply because "He is terrible".  You guys even have a word for it now "Santorumize".

[12th Doctor]

Though not closely related, I needed to find a place to put this - Casey aiming to be a bipartisan Senator - http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/cityregion/s_482485.html

Yeah, and Bush promised to be "a uniter, not a divider." Talk is cheap. I'll believe it when I see it.

If anything, I agree with you.

 Joe Hoeffel had a solid grassroots effort for the Lt. Governor position, but dropped due to Rendell's wishes.    

What did that consist of? Some college kids that helped run his joke "Joe Hoeffel and Friends" website for his one day campaign? Come on.

Well, first off, Specter is running for the Senate again, I know this because he is fundraising for himself like crazy in order to have enough money for both a probable primary challenge and the general.

Oh, I can't wait for that one. I've been hearing that he's running for awhile now. He's done in the primary though if someone opposes him. If Toomey could have nearly ended him in 2004, he is done in four years. Plus, Specter is going to be eighty years old in 2010. Good luck escaping the age issue there. Good thing Toomey has stayed fairly involved here.

I doubt very highly that he can be toppled this time.  We basically blind-sided him last time.  He'll be ready for it now.

[Keystone Phil]

I doubt very highly that he can be toppled this time.  We basically blind-sided him last time.  He'll be ready for it now.

And what can he do? Suddeny shift to the right? He can't do anything about his age either. I don't see how he convinces conservative voters to stick with him. He's not going to have someone like Santorum saving his ass with those voters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In any case, it's time to find the next Republican to Santorumize. I nominate the pro-war anti-stem cell research phone jammer from New Hampshire, John Sununu.

Wow... that's the closest I think we will ever get to an honest admition that turning Santorum into Dr. Evil was a deliberate, politically motivated effort and not simply because "He is terrible".  You guys even have a word for it now "Santorumize".

No, he means heavily targeting them, and Santorum was so targeted because he really is that bad. Why wasn't there so much demonizing of Mike DeWine?

[12th Doctor]

I doubt very highly that he can be toppled this time.  We basically blind-sided him last time.  He'll be ready for it now.

And what can he do? Suddeny shift to the right? He can't do anything about his age either. I don't see how he convinces conservative voters to stick with him. He's not going to have someone like Santorum saving his ass with those voters.

He doesn't need to go out and convince all the voters, just those who are politically important.  He'll work harder to get party people on his side this time.  He'll also start early and quickly.  Toomey wasn't taken seriously, which is what made him so dangerous (from Specter's POV) in the final couple of weeks.  Plus, he will use the Santorum loss to good effect, making the argument that a dyed-in-the-wool conservative can't win this state anymore.  Trust me, he'll be an easy sell in '10... worst he'll do is 60%

[Keystone Phil]

He doesn't need to go out and convince all the voters, just those who are politically important.  He'll work harder to get party people on his side this time.  He'll also start early and quickly.  Toomey wasn't taken seriously, which is what made him so dangerous (from Specter's POV) in the final couple of weeks.  Plus, he will use the Santorum loss to good effect, making the argument that a dyed-in-the-wool conservative can't win this state anymore.  Trust me, he'll be an easy sell in '10... worst he'll do is 60%

The politically important were already on his side. He doesn't need to work harder with party people since he has most of them in his control.

I understand the anti-Santorum message he'd use but I don't know how much that will do. Conservatives really don't like the man and using an argument like that, while possible politically smart, could really energize the base against him.

We still have some time though. I really hope Toomey or somebody at least runs against him and I think we both can agree that Toomey or probably anyone else will be better than Specter.

[TeePee4Prez]

He doesn't need to go out and convince all the voters, just those who are politically important.  He'll work harder to get party people on his side this time.  He'll also start early and quickly.  Toomey wasn't taken seriously, which is what made him so dangerous (from Specter's POV) in the final couple of weeks.  Plus, he will use the Santorum loss to good effect, making the argument that a dyed-in-the-wool conservative can't win this state anymore.  Trust me, he'll be an easy sell in '10... worst he'll do is 60%

The politically important were already on his side. He doesn't need to work harder with party people since he has most of them in his control.

I understand the anti-Santorum message he'd use but I don't know how much that will do. Conservatives really don't like the man and using an argument like that, while possible politically smart, could really energize the base against him.

We still have some time though. I really hope Toomey or somebody at least runs against him and I think we both can agree that Toomey or probably anyone else will be better than Specter.

Please run Toomey.. NO really Phil, I'm begging you!  All I have to say is US Senator Allyson Schwartz (D-PA, 2011-?)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In any case, it's time to find the next Republican to Santorumize. I nominate the pro-war anti-stem cell research phone jammer from New Hampshire, John Sununu.

Wow... that's the closest I think we will ever get to an honest admition that turning Santorum into Dr. Evil was a deliberate, politically motivated effort and not simply because "He is terrible".  You guys even have a word for it now "Santorumize".

Umm, Santorum is terrible. No one Santorumized Chafee.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I was very pleased at Casey's stunning 59%-41% victory over Santorum.  Although Joe Hoeffel would also have won, I believe, Casey's coattails probably really helped Democrats in knocking off Hart/Fitzpatrick and reclaiming the legislature.  Also, we may not have to tolerate Casey too long if the rumours are correct he will be running for Governor of Pennsylvania in 2010.  With him at the top of the ticket, the Democrats stand a good chance at retaining his Senate seat.

[Keystone Phil]

He doesn't need to go out and convince all the voters, just those who are politically important.  He'll work harder to get party people on his side this time.  He'll also start early and quickly.  Toomey wasn't taken seriously, which is what made him so dangerous (from Specter's POV) in the final couple of weeks.  Plus, he will use the Santorum loss to good effect, making the argument that a dyed-in-the-wool conservative can't win this state anymore.  Trust me, he'll be an easy sell in '10... worst he'll do is 60%

The politically important were already on his side. He doesn't need to work harder with party people since he has most of them in his control.

I understand the anti-Santorum message he'd use but I don't know how much that will do. Conservatives really don't like the man and using an argument like that, while possible politically smart, could really energize the base against him.

We still have some time though. I really hope Toomey or somebody at least runs against him and I think we both can agree that Toomey or probably anyone else will be better than Specter.

Please run Toomey.. NO really Phil, I'm begging you!  All I have to say is US Senator Allyson Schwartz (D-PA, 2011-?)

Your immaturity and insanely arrogant behavior is exactly why we get into brawls here. You are getting way too confident about Schwartz with the whole "Oh my God! Schwartz (2011-The second coming of Christ)! She's my girrrrrl!"

[TeePee4Prez]

He doesn't need to go out and convince all the voters, just those who are politically important.  He'll work harder to get party people on his side this time.  He'll also start early and quickly.  Toomey wasn't taken seriously, which is what made him so dangerous (from Specter's POV) in the final couple of weeks.  Plus, he will use the Santorum loss to good effect, making the argument that a dyed-in-the-wool conservative can't win this state anymore.  Trust me, he'll be an easy sell in '10... worst he'll do is 60%

The politically important were already on his side. He doesn't need to work harder with party people since he has most of them in his control.

I understand the anti-Santorum message he'd use but I don't know how much that will do. Conservatives really don't like the man and using an argument like that, while possible politically smart, could really energize the base against him.

We still have some time though. I really hope Toomey or somebody at least runs against him and I think we both can agree that Toomey or probably anyone else will be better than Specter.

Please run Toomey.. NO really Phil, I'm begging you!  All I have to say is US Senator Allyson Schwartz (D-PA, 2011-?)

Your immaturity and insanely arrogant behavior is exactly why we get into brawls here. You are getting way too confident about Schwartz with the whole "Oh my God! Schwartz (2011-The second coming of Christ)! She's my girrrrrl!"

And you are about Toomey.

[Stranger in a strange land]

no, I think Casey is a good fit for the state, and I think his coattails helped the democratic congressional candidates.