Can Democrats Take TX-23?
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  Can Democrats Take TX-23?
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Adlai Stevenson
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« on: December 07, 2006, 01:45:47 PM »

From Political Wire:

"Republicans fear that Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) has already squandered his chance to destroy former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) with negative advertising in the upcoming runoff election before the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee could step in and begin pummeling him," says the latest Evans-Novak Political Report. "Bonilla has stuck with positive ads until very late in the game. He polls just above 50 percent, which is a good sign, but Rodriguez is within striking distance."

"This race will provide a very important gauge of Republican prospects for winning the Hispanic vote in the future and over the long haul... If Rodriguez pulls this off, particularly after getting just 20 percent in the first round of the special election, it may give reason to fault Bonilla for being too positive with his campaign. But it may also signal such an unbreakable Democratic lean among San Antonio Hispanics that Republicans are a decade further away from being competitive than they thought."

Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report notes that turnout in the middle of the holiday season -- with voting on "a significant holiday for Latino Catholics known as el Día de La Virgen de Guadalupe" -- may be a problem for Rodriguez. However, while Bonilla "may indeed hold on to his seat on December 12, this race is not the slam dunk that many thought it would be."

The run off is on December 12.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2006/12/06/can_democrats_take_tx23.html
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Gabu
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2006, 04:27:59 PM »

I'll be very surprised if Bonilla loses.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2006, 04:34:13 PM »

Noticed this article yesterday.  Here's what's been going on:

Democrats are touting that Ciro has closed the gap to 3%, as of a day or two ago.  Most political observers are kinda ignoring this, but once again I ask:  How do you properly poll a runoff race where you'll be lucky to see 60,000 voters.  That's not standard alottment.  It might be correct, but it might not.

Second, Bonilla has been going negative the past few days after going positive for quite a long while (as the article points out).  I suspect that means it is too close for comfort, but in a low-turnout race, too close for comfort is a wider scale than would be otherwise.  My guess is that SUSA is probably fairly accurate, though there is no way that 47.1% of RV will show up.

Anyway, it'll be a race based entirely on turnout.

Rodriguez has to win Bexar to win.  That's about it.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2006, 09:03:58 PM »

Noticed this article yesterday.  Here's what's been going on:

Democrats are touting that Ciro has closed the gap to 3%, as of a day or two ago.  Most political observers are kinda ignoring this, but once again I ask:  How do you properly poll a runoff race where you'll be lucky to see 60,000 voters.  That's not standard alottment.  It might be correct, but it might not.

Second, Bonilla has been going negative the past few days after going positive for quite a long while (as the article points out).  I suspect that means it is too close for comfort, but in a low-turnout race, too close for comfort is a wider scale than would be otherwise.  My guess is that SUSA is probably fairly accurate, though there is no way that 47.1% of RV will show up.

Anyway, it'll be a race based entirely on turnout.

Rodriguez has to win Bexar to win.  That's about it.
In the general election, early voting in Bexar County was right at 50% of the total vote.   80K of the total 124K TX-23 total was from Bexar County.  So we can estimate that the early voting in Bexar/TX-23 was about 40K.

Through Wednesday, there were 10.8K early voters in Bexar County, with 3* days left.  For the cumulative total, the 3 Northside locations were 13% more than the 3 Southside locations, but on Wednesday it was 28% more, which suggests that the Republican GOTV is starting to crank up.  There may be a reaction to all the whining about the voting dates.  Early voting was extended to include last Saturday and Sunday, and this coming Saturday.  If the smaller counties turnout, Rodriguez is in real trouble, there are several where KBH was up in the 70-80% range.  I suspect a largish share of the Anglo vote went for Gilliland or Stephens (the independent).   That vote is more likely to shift to Bonilla than Rodriguez.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2006, 11:23:15 AM »

Through Wednesday, there were 10.8K early voters in Bexar County, with 3* days left.  For the cumulative total, the 3 Northside locations were 13% more than the 3 Southside locations, but on Wednesday it was 28% more, which suggests that the Republican GOTV is starting to crank up.
Through Thursday 13.3K.  For Thursday, 3 Northside locations 37% more than 3 Southside locations.
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ottermax
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« Reply #5 on: December 08, 2006, 07:34:36 PM »

I doubt it. Bonilla won 49 percent the first time.
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Verily
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« Reply #6 on: December 08, 2006, 07:51:15 PM »

I doubt it. Bonilla won 49 percent the first time.

He won 48%, to 49% to all of the Democrats together. Really, this race hinges on turnout (which will be abysmal), though Bonilla should win.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #7 on: December 10, 2006, 03:46:36 AM »

Through Wednesday, there were 10.8K early voters in Bexar County, with 3* days left.  For the cumulative total, the 3 Northside locations were 13% more than the 3 Southside locations, but on Wednesday it was 28% more, which suggests that the Republican GOTV is starting to crank up.
Through Thursday 13.3K.  For Thursday, 3 Northside locations 37% more than 3 Southside locations.
And through Saturday a total of 18.5K.  With mail voting, it should be around 20K early voting total in Bexar County, which would suggest a district-wide vote of around 60K.
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