Verily's Extremely Premature 2008 Analysis

[Verily]

Safe D
DE - Biden[1]
IL - Durbin
IA - Harkin
MA - Kerry[2]
MI - Levin
MT - Baucus
RI - Reed
WV - Rockefeller

Likely D
AR - Pryor
NJ - Lautenberg[2]
SD - Johnson

Lean D
(None)

Tossup
CO - Allard[2]
MN - Coleman
LA - Landrieu

Lean R
OR - Smith
NH - Sununu

Likely R
NC - Dole
TX - Cornyn
ME - Collins
OK - Inhofe
VA - Warner[1]

Safe R
AL - Sessions
AK - Stevens
GA - Chambliss
ID - Craig
KS - Roberts
KY - McConnell
MS - Cochran[1]
NE - Hagel[2]
NM - Domenici
SC - Graham
TN - Alexander
WY - Enzi

[1]Possible retirement, would become one stage less solid.
[2]Possible retirement, would be unchanged.


It is absolutely absurd to say right now that a seat leans to the other party, though Colorado is tempting. Bar some cataclysmic shift in the political environment, the Democrats will probably hold the Senate by virtue of having only one vulnerable seat (LA) to four vulnerable Republican seats (CO, MN, NH and OR). Some races that were close last time won't be close this time: Johnson in SD, Pryor in AR, and Chambliss in GA.

Some Senators are liabilities, notably Kerry and Allard, and their seats might become more safe if they retire (though Kerry's seat is possibly the safest Dem seat this cycle anyway). Hagel's seat is completely safe even without him in it, so, even if he retires, it's a safe GOP seat.

That's it, really.