LA-02 runoff predictions thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Carter 55
Jefferson 45

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

tommorow

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jefferson is the more conservative of the two candidates by far. He voted for the anti-gay marriage amendment and CAFTA. Republicans will break for him heavily, that's one concern.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jefferson 55 Carter 45

Back to the uber-pessimistic phase you were in when you kept insisting Santorum would win?

Jefferson would have to take about half of the votes not cast for him or Carter to get that, which is pretty unlikely since all the non-Jefferson voters obviously didn't vote for him for a reason. He might get a good chunk of the approx. 15% that voted for Republican candidates, but I don't see much more.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

15 of 492 precincts reporting

Karen Carter (D)   971   61%
William Jefferson (D)   349   39%

You got results? I still see nothing.

Also, I believe polls don't close until 9 in Louisiana.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmm, interesting. Those parish numbers don't add up though. It should be 23 precincts reproting.

Anyone know of where to get precinct results? It'll be interesting to see how the Republican precincts in the district vote.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Jefferson pulled ahead big in Orleans Parish.

Let's hope that's his base (or Republican areas) coming in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Carter will most likely be sitting in that seat in 2008 regardless of what happens now.

But it's going to look pretty bad if she isn't in January

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I will. You realized the stupidity of LA-2 more than anyone else.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Should have found a better candidate than Carter then.

Is there anyone better? I think as Verily pointed out everyone else is basically just as corrupt as Jefferson.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

But like the rest of the south, they value corruption over competance.

Really?

It would be comparable if Menendez had actually been taped accepting bribes, and if Menendez could be voted out without flipping control of the Senate to Republicans, and if Menendez was running against someone who wasn't a braindead fu'cking idiotic piece of human gabage who I'd laugh if he got hit by a bus (same applies to Jefferson to of course)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Precinct-by-precinct results for this race from LA SOS.  They don't help me much, because I don't know where the precincts are, actually.

http://www.sos.louisiana.gov:8090/cgibin/?rqstyp=elcmp&rqsdta=12090614519063

All of the outstanding precincts are in Orleans Parish and right now Carter is leading in that parish slightly.  But she got absolutely killed in Jefferson Parish, pretty ugly all told.

I don't know where they are either, but a membership does give how they voted in 2004. Most of Ward 4 in Orleans is Republican, Bush won every precinct from 9 on up. But it appears that none of htose are in the District (probably are in District 1)

At a first glance, it appears Carter did best in what I'm guessing are mostly white Democratic areas (the type of places that voted "only" 70% for Kerry instead of >90%), which is hardly suprising. It also looks like the Republican precincts might not be in the district, in which case it'll be tough to see how Republicans voted.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

From a quick glance, it appears this was mostly just really polarized racial voting. Blacks voted Jefferson, whites voted Carter. That pretty much sums it up.