How many Democratic House freshmen are vulnerable in 2008?

[MarkWarner08]

The DCCC's decision not to help Gary Trauner and Vic Wulsin may have looked like a short term blunder, but it could be a wise decision in the long term.

Trauner and Wulsin would both have been up for reelection in a Presidential election year in districts that went 60%+ for Bush in 2004. Those races would have cost the Democrats a fortune to hold and they would likely have lost them anyways.

The list of 29 pickups features only 5 really vulnerable freshman. If Rob Simmons or Jeb Bradley run,  Joe Courtney and Carol Shea-Porter go back on this list.

1. Nick Lampson: He's gone

2. Nancy Boyda: She could become a savvy lawmaker who survives several close reelection because of her moderate bona fides and eventually become entrenched (ie Dennis Moore). Another possibility is she's taken out by whoever wins the GOP primay.  As Thomas Frank taught us, nothing is so fierce as a Mod vs. Con internecine battle

3.  Tim Mahoney: He only beat Mark Foley by 2%. 'nuff said. If the GOP nominates a good candidate, the fun's over for Mahoney.

4. Jerry McNerney. Has the 11th swung Democratic enough for a liberal  hero of the enviros to win in a Presidential year? This race all depends on the NRCC's candidate recruitment.

5. Jason Altmire. Candidate recruitment, candidate recruitment,  candidate recruitment. The reason Melissa Hart held the 4th district for 6 years was because Democrats nominated people like Steven Drobac.

I'm convinced the difference between Gerlach's 50.6% and Fitzgerald's 49.7% was the extra term Gerlach had to bring in the pork. The GOP will never have as good a shot at beating Altmire.

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

[MarkWarner08]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You don't think that Shea-Porter is vulnerable?

Hodes should be pretty safe o/c.

[MarkWarner08]

You don't think that Shea-Porter is vulnerable?

Hodes should be pretty safe o/c.

The Democrats were very lucky in 2006, IMHO. Their upset winners were in heavily or leaning Democratic districts such as IA-02 and NH-01. I just can't think of any credible candidates who could beat Shea-Porter. She's a very likable woman whose average qualities are very endearing to voters. Unless Jeb Bradley win again. she's safe until she retires.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

It's a 54-45 Bush district. We won plenty of seats similar to that.

Walz is most likely safe, mostly because the GOP doesn't have much of a bench here. Both the leaders of the GOP Senate and House caucuses live in the district, but both are also extremely unpopular outside of their own seats.

[MarkWarner08]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

It's a 54-45 Bush district. We won plenty of seats similar to that.

Walz is most likely safe, mostly because the GOP doesn't have much of a bench here. Both the leaders of the GOP Senate and House caucuses live in the district, but both are also extremely unpopular outside of their own seats.

I meant the 6th is too conservative. The 6th gave Bush 57%, which was 10% over his statewide average. Kline is good fit for the district. His military  credentials and moderate to conservative voting record will help him in this GOP leaning district. Bachmann sadly is likely safe in her Distritct too.

[WalterMitty]

You don't think that Shea-Porter is vulnerable?

Hodes should be pretty safe o/c.

shea-porter will have a fight on her hands in 08.

jeb bradley is itching for a rematch.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

It's a 54-45 Bush district. We won plenty of seats similar to that.

Walz is most likely safe, mostly because the GOP doesn't have much of a bench here. Both the leaders of the GOP Senate and House caucuses live in the district, but both are also extremely unpopular outside of their own seats.

I meant the 6th is too conservative. The 6th gave Bush 57%, which was 10% over his statewide average. Kline is good fit for the district. His military  credentials and moderate to conservative voting record will help him in this GOP leaning district. Bachmann sadly is likely safe in her Distritct too.

You're right Kline would be favored, but a much stronger opponent could've rode the wave to victory (and Kline doesn't have anything moderate at all I could think of).

What you say about the 6th district would probably be true if we were talking about a sane Republican, but Bachmann is not such a Republican. And note that it is less Republican than OH-2.

[MarkWarner08]

The GOP freshman are all safe except Dean Heller and Peter Roskam. Heller and Roskam are both probably safe unless Democrats nominate  good candidates.

Bachmann could be beat if the DFL nominates Elwyn Tinkleberg, or another good candidate (who would have to be pro-life though) particularly if she starts acting like Jean Schmidt on the House floor.

Wetterling was a really bad candidate. Most people were just fooled into thinking she was a good candidate becuase she overperformed in 2004, but we now see that was because Kennedy was a bad candidate, although the GOP refused to admit this at the time with him being their Senate candidate.

Hopefully the DFL has learned their lesson of pushing aside good experience, established candidates like Tinkleberg and Sharon Marko in the 2nd district in favor of quasi-celebrities. Rowley was also a terrible candidate who almost lost Rice County. Marko might've actually had a chance.

The 2nd is just too conservative for a Democrat to win. The 1st is a 51/49 GOP district that I think Walz will be able to hold until the next wave election.

It's a 54-45 Bush district. We won plenty of seats similar to that.

Walz is most likely safe, mostly because the GOP doesn't have much of a bench here. Both the leaders of the GOP Senate and House caucuses live in the district, but both are also extremely unpopular outside of their own seats.

I meant the 6th is too conservative. The 6th gave Bush 57%, which was 10% over his statewide average. Kline is good fit for the district. His military  credentials and moderate to conservative voting record will help him in this GOP leaning district. Bachmann sadly is likely safe in her Distritct too.

You're right Kline would be favored, but a much stronger opponent could've rode the wave to victory (and Kline doesn't have anything moderate at all I could think of).

What you say about the 6th district would probably be true if we were talking about a sane Republican, but Bachmann is not such a Republican. And note that it is less Republican than OH-2.

Bachmann is more media savvy and less insane than Schmidt. Bachmann also doesn't look like an angry scarecrow.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Peter Roskam and Mark Kirk would be vulnerable if Barack Obama is on the Democratic ticket. 

[MarkWarner08]

Peter Roskam and Mark Kirk would be vulnerable if Barack Obama is on the Democratic ticket. 

Depends on if Ceglis and Seals run.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What about New York? All three won in districts that are still tradtionally Republican.

Arcuri should still be safe (though both him and Gillibrand benefited heavily from looks), but I'm not sure about the others.

[MarkWarner08]

What about New York? All three won in districts that are still tradtionally Republican.

Arcuri should still be safe (though both him and Gillibrand benefited heavily from looks), but I'm not sure about the others.

Gillibrand and Hall are both safe unless the GOP picks good nominees. Watch Hall, if he votes like he's from San Fran, he'll be a one termer.

[Verily]

1. Nick Lampson: He's gone

Almost certainly.

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Also agreed, but, seeing the way the Kansas GOP is going (the moderates have started jumping ship to the state Democratic Party), she'll almost certainly have a conservative opponent in 2008, who she should win reelection against. I'd compare her most to Stephanie Herseth.

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The district is pretty marginal, actually; 53-46 for Bush, IIRC. Mahoney will probably hang on; I think the Foley effect was overestimated and it was more that the district was a swing district with no incumbent -- so it went Democratic in a Democratic wave and will stay that way until another wave or if it opens up.

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CA-11, like FL-16, is not conservative enough for a Presidential year to make much difference.

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He'll be in danger for sure if the GOP gets a good candidate.

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Roskam will be safe. Tammy Duckworth was about the best possible candidate the Democrats could have hoped for.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Re: FL-16, Negron did manage to largely negate the Foley effect with a good slogan: "Punch Foley for Negron", "punch Foley" makes it sound more like punishing him and was a good way to get past the obstacle of people having to vote for Foley. I agree with Verily, it went Democratic more because it was just an open marginal district in a Democratic year. Mahoney is fairly moderate, so he can very well hang on.

Gillibrand and Hall are both safe unless the GOP picks good nominees. Watch Hall, if he votes like he's from San Fran, he'll be a one termer.

And that's why I worry about, since Hall is extremely liberal.

Poetic justice in NY-19 though, since lots believe that it was Kelly's vote for the Federal Marriage Amendment that did her in and she would've won reelection had she voted against it. It's great to see anti-gay politics finally cost someone a seat.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Their upset winners were in heavily or leaning Democratic districts such as IA-02 and NH-01.

NH-1 is a natural swing district methinks, but no more than that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Re: FL-16, Negron did manage to largely negate the Foley effect with a good slogan: "Punch Foley for Negron", "punch Foley" makes it sound more like punishing him and was a good way to get past the obstacle of people having to vote for Foley. I agree with Verily, it went Democratic more because it was just an open marginal district in a Democratic year. Mahoney is fairly moderate, so he can very well hang on.

If Foley had just retired without scandal, the GOP would have held that district.

[Keystone Phil]

I have heard a lot of talk that Carney (PA 10) is gone. Yesterday, I was in the same room with him and the man who might defeat him (along with being in many other rooms with some people). Anyone care to guess where I was? 

[MarkWarner08]

Later today I'll write a little bit about Carney, Kagen, Shea-Porter, Hall, Space and Gillibrand.

[Nutmeg]

Anyone care to guess where I was? 

Your bed, dreaming?

[Keystone Phil]

Anyone care to guess where I was? 

Your bed, dreaming?

Why would I dream of seeing Chris Carney of all people?

I was actually at the Pennsylvania Society, the annual meeting of PA politicians, activists, lobbyists, etc. and saw a number of people, Carney being one of them. I won't go into too much detail but at least I attend events with important people while people that find your post hilarious remain irrelevant in society.

[MAS117]

I think Chris Carney will be more vunerable then Altimire, and I am worried about a Pat Murphy v. Fitz rematch, but I think Murphy can win.

[Keystone Phil]

I think Chris Carney will be more vunerable then Altimire, and I am worried about a Pat Murphy v. Fitz rematch, but I think Murphy can win.

Yeah, Carney is far more vulnerable because it is such a strong GOP district in a Presidential election year. Altmire is in trouble if Hart runs again but I hear she is still in shock so no talk yet of a comeback. Fitz vs. Murphy will be fun...