New Tradesports rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama back near record high.
Gore at a several month low.
Richardson at a several month high.
McCain near a several month low.
Giuliani hit a record high earlier today.

Democrats
Clinton 51.8
Obama 23.0
Edwards 12.5
Gore 6.5
Richardson 3.3
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.1
Clark 0.7
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
McCain 33.3
Giuliani 27.9
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 5.0
Hagel 4.2
Huckabee 4.1
Brownback 3.5
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

McCain continues into several month lows.
Gingrich near a record high.

Listing the last trade of everyone with a bid

Democrats
Clinton 50.5
Obama 22.7
Edwards 12.0
Gore 7.2
Richardson 3.3
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.1
Clark 0.7
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Bayh 0.1
Corzine 0.1
Powell 0.1


Republicans
McCain 32.6
Giuliani 26.1
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 5.8
Hagel 4.2
Brownback 3.8
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Hunter 0.8
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Allen 0.2
Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.1
Paul 0.1
Santorum 0.1

[© tweed]

This sorta goes in the same boat and it makes more sense than starting a new thread.  Odds to be elected President of the United States, from AmericasLine.com.

Rudy Giuliani (R) Former New York City Mayor           4/1
Hillary Clinton (D) New York Senator                         9/2
John McCain (R) Arizona Senator                               6/1
Barack Obama (D) Illinois Senator                            10/1
Mitt Romney (R) Former Massachuetts Governor      12/1
Al Gore (D) Former Vice President                             20/1
John Edwards (D) Former North Carolina Senator    20/1
Mike Huckabee (R) Former Arkansas Governor         25/1
Wesley Clark (D) Retired General                             25/1
Evan Bayh (D) Indiana Senator                                25/1
Bill Richardson (D) New Mexico Governor                  30/1
Tom Vilsack (D) Former Iowa Governor                     30/1
Sam Brownback (R) Kansas Senator                         30/1
Chuck Hagel (R) Nebraska Senator                           35/1
Chris Dodd (D) Connecticut Senator                         40/1
Tom Ridge (R) Former Pennsylvania Governor          40/1
Newt Gingrich (R) Former Speaker                            40/1
George Pataki (R) Former New York Governor          50/1
Bill Frist (R) Former Tennessee Senator                    50/1
Rick Perry (R) Texas Governor                                   50/1
Jeb Bush (R) Former Florida Governor                       50/1
Condoleezza Rice (R) Secretary of State                   50/1
George Allen (R) Former Virginia Senator                 100/1
Dick Cheney (R) Vice President                                 100/1
Michael Bloomberg (R) New York City Mayor             100/1
Colin Powell (R) Former Secretary of State               100/1
Ralph Nader (I) Consumer Advocate                        5000/1
Michael Moore (I) Filmmaker, Activist                       10000/1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama hit a record high of 24.0 earlier today.
He, Clinton, and Richardson seem to be gaining at Edwards and Gore's expense.

On, the Republican side, Giuliani hits a record high, and has nearly caught up with McCain, who has been steadily falling.

Democrats
Clinton 51.1
Obama 23.9
Edwards 10.8
Gore 7.0
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 0.9
Clark 0.6
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
McCain 30.7
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 5.8
Hagel 4.2
Brownback 3.8
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Bloomberg 0.7
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.5

[Inmate Trump]

McCain 30.7
Giuliani 30.0

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani has also surpassed McCain on the odds to go all the way and win the general election as well as the primary.  Intrade odds to go all the way and win the general election:

Clinton 28.0
Giuliani 17.5
McCain 17.0
Obama 13.5
Romney 9.0
Edwards 7.9

Divide those #s by the odds to win the nomination, and you find that each of those candidates would have a better than 50% chance in the general election (except Romney, who's at exactly 50%).  I guess this works out if you think that they would all absolutely destroy any of the non-top 3 from the other party.  Otherwise, it wouldn't make any sense.

[Mr. Morden]

Richardson has now jumped up all the way to 8.0.  What's up with that?

[© tweed]

Giuliani has also surpassed McCain on the odds to go all the way and win the general election as well as the primary.  Intrade odds to go all the way and win the general election:

Clinton 28.0
Giuliani 17.5
McCain 17.0
Obama 13.5
Romney 9.0
Edwards 7.9

Divide those #s by the odds to win the nomination, and you find that each of those candidates would have a better than 50% chance in the general election (except Romney, who's at exactly 50%).  I guess this works out if you think that they would all absolutely destroy any of the non-top 3 from the other party.  Otherwise, it wouldn't make any sense.

Beware of putting much stock in lightly traded markets.  Not many people are trading that right now so it usually leads to a large difference between the bid/ask and general inaccuracy.

Richardson seemingly has inherited Vilsack's stock.  He's trading at around a 5.0 now.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Vilsack drops out, his numbers seem to go to Richardson. The Democrats are down to 10 people with more than 0.1% odds.

Democrats
Clinton 51.3
Obama 23.2
Edwards 11.0
Gore 6.8
Richardson 4.9
Biden 1.5
Clark 0.6
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
McCain 30.7
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 4.9
Hagel 4.5
Huckabee 4.1
Brownback 3.8
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Hunter 0.5

[© tweed]

Just for fun, the numbers from 08/29/05:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Props to the people who sold Allen and bought Obama.

[jimrtex]

Beware of putting much stock in lightly traded markets.  Not many people are trading that right now so it usually leads to a large difference between the bid/ask and general inaccuracy.

How much money is actually invested in Tradesports on the presidential nominations?  With candidates raising 10s of $millions, wouldn't it be an effective strategy to invest $X,000 to demonstrate rising interest in your candidate?

[© tweed]

Beware of putting much stock in lightly traded markets.  Not many people are trading that right now so it usually leads to a large difference between the bid/ask and general inaccuracy.

How much money is actually invested in Tradesports on the presidential nominations?  With candidates raising 10s of $millions, wouldn't it be an effective strategy to invest $X,000 to demonstrate rising interest in your candidate?

I don't know about the second sentence, but the volume traded on the presidential nominations is thousands of times larger than that on the individual contracts to win the general election.

--

Giuliani has surpassed McCain on last transaction, although his bid/ask are still lower than McCain's.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Giuliani passes McCain, hitting a record high of 31.0.

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 22.8
Edwards 11.0
Gore 8.0
Richardson 4.9
Biden 1.5
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
Giuliani 31.0
McCain 30.3
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 4.9
Hagel 4.5
Huckabee 4.1
Brownback 3.8
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Hunter 0.5

[jimrtex]

How much money is actually invested in Tradesports on the presidential nominations?  With candidates raising 10s of $millions, wouldn't it be an effective strategy to invest $X,000 to demonstrate rising interest in your candidate?

I don't know about the second sentence, but the volume traded on the presidential nominations is thousands of times larger than that on the individual contracts to win the general election.

Volume might be deceptive though.  Total volume on Colin Powell for the Democrat nomination has been 9500, 10% of that of Hillary Clinton.  But his price has been in the 0.1 to 0.2 range.  Since a contract is for $10, that means $.01 to $.02 per share, for a total of $200.

Betting on Clinton last week might have been $1000.

BTW, Tradesports is splitting off their political and similar bets to something called Intrade.  Tradesports will be solely for sports.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore surge
Giuliani continues setting record highs
Gingrich just suddenly surged

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 23.4
Edwards 11.0
Gore 10.0
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.5
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
Giuliani 31.7
McCain 30.3
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 6.0
Huckabee 4.9
Hagel 4.5
Brownback 3.5
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Hunter 0.5

[Verily]

Gore will collapse tonight after he fails to announce at the Oscars. (Alternatively, he could overtake Obama if he announces, but I find that highly unlikely.)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Party winner
Democrat 58.5
Republican 40.6
Field 2.3

[Reignman]

Why are is the Democratic Party doing so much better all of a sudden?

[Boris]

Why are is the Democratic Party doing so much better all of a sudden?

Probably more of a "national climate" thing. Once specific candidates are nominated and debate intensifies, the numbers will probably tighten.

[Mr. Morden]

Gore will collapse tonight after he fails to announce at the Oscars. (Alternatively, he could overtake Obama if he announces, but I find that highly unlikely.)

So much for that.  There was about a ~25-30% drop in the share price for Gore last night after his non-announcement, but it's now bounced back to about where it was 24 hours ago.

[Mr. Morden]

It is rather incredible that Edwards is just barely ahead of Gore.  If Edwards continues his slide of the last two months, it won't be long before Gore passes him.

[Verily]

I can't believe people are still stupid enough to bet on Gore. He made the hype about him running for President into a running gag at the Oscars!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Surprisingly, not much of a drop for Gore.
On the Republican side, some of those who aren't running plumented.

Democrats
Clinton 50.5
Obama 22.0
Edwards 11.0
Gore 9.8
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.5
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.6
Clark 0.5
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
Giuliani 31.5
McCain 30.9
Romney 16.8
Gingrich 5.0
Huckabee 5.0
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 1.3
Powell 0.8
Cheney 0.7
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Hunter 0.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Winning individual
Clinton 29.2
Giuliani 17.6
McCain 15.5
Obama 15.0
Romney 9.5
Edwards 8.1
Gore 5.9
Allen 1.1
Warner 1.0

[Eraserhead]

Winning individual
Clinton 29.2
Giuliani 17.6
McCain 15.5
Obama 15.0
Romney 9.5
Edwards 8.1
Gore 5.9
Allen 1.1
Warner 1.0

9.5 for Romney and 1.1 for Allen. Wow.