New Tradesports rankings

[Lief 🗽]

Oh InTrade...

[Verily]

Sell Obama/buy Clinton. As if that advice was needed.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Now, buy Obama.

[Eraserhead]

Quick... buy Gravel!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Huge surge for Obama in Dem. nomination market:

Obama 60.2
Clinton 38.0

And, of course, it's all gone now.

Clinton 58.9
Obama 40.0

I'd like to thank the Obama folks for making it possible to pick up some more Clinton on the cheap tonight.

[© tweed]

I can't even log on to Intrade right now.  too much action

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Shouldn't be too much of a surprise, but:

GOP NOMINATION
McCain  95.3 (+8.3)
Romney  3.4 (-5.6)
Huckabee 2.2 (+1.2)

DEM NOMINATION
Clinton 64.0 (+10.0)
Obama 36.0 (-10.0)

[J. J.]

Shouldn't be too much of a surprise, but:

GOP NOMINATION
McCain  95.3 (+8.3)
Romney  3.4 (-5.6)
Huckabee 2.2 (+1.2)

DEM NOMINATION
Clinton 64.0 (+10.0)
Obama 36.0 (-10.0)

Clinton may drop, slightly, in the next several days.  If it drops below 60, buy.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney has collapsed, and falls behind Huck in GOP nomination market:

McCain 92.5
Huckabee 2.2
Romney 1.7

[© tweed]

Obama has rallied in the past hour to 44.0

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's probably the media projections that he'll still win a slight majority of delegates.

[© tweed]

Obama once again the favorite, at 54.8.  crazy few hours on the market

[Lief 🗽]

A little over-rated; I'd put it at 50-50 at this point.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Pretty even on the Democratic side. McCain has mostly sewn things up on the Republican side.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 51.0
Obama 49.0
Gore 0.9
Edwards 0.2

All the outstanding states that are traded
New Mexico: Obama leads 50-45
Pennsylvania: Clinton leads 55-30


REPUBLICAN

Nomination
McCain 93.7
Romney 2.5
Huckabee 2.2
Paul 1.2
Guiliani 1.1
Thompson 1.0
Rice 0.3
Gingrich 0.2

[Eraserhead]

I guess the people on tintrade got a hold of a calendar.

[Verily]

Intrade numbers are now exactly tied at 50.0-50.0 on the Democratic side. Dem brokered convention is up to 28.9.

[Mr. Morden]

I still don't understand how a brokered convention is supposed to happen, unless "the nominee is decided by the superdelegates" counts as a brokered convention.  But if a brokered convention means that the nominee isn't chosen on the first ballot, it seems virtually impossible, since (presumably) every delegate at the convention (pledged or unpledged) will vote for either Clinton or Obama, one of them has to win a majority.....unless they actually think that the 25 or so Edwards delegates are going to have to break the deadlock.

[Verily]

I still don't understand how a brokered convention is supposed to happen, unless "the nominee is decided by the superdelegates" counts as a brokered convention.  But if a brokered convention means that the nominee isn't chosen on the first ballot, it seems virtually impossible, since (presumably) every delegate at the convention (pledged or unpledged) will vote for either Clinton or Obama, one of them has to win a majority.....unless they actually think that the 25 or so Edwards delegates are going to have to break the deadlock.

They may be considering that such close numbers mean, at the urging of superdelegates and other party leaders, either Clinton or Obama, or perhaps both, will step aside for a compromise candidate endorsed by the standing-aside candidate's delegates and most of the superdelegates. (Say, for example, the two are tied, but Obama stands aside in favor of Al Gore, and the superdelegates flock from Clinton to Gore. Gore's not a likely choice for this at all, but he's a good example.)

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

(Say, for example, the two are tied, but Obama stands aside in favor of Al Gore, and the superdelegates flock from Clinton to Gore.)

we can only hope

[Mr. Morden]

I still don't understand how a brokered convention is supposed to happen, unless "the nominee is decided by the superdelegates" counts as a brokered convention.  But if a brokered convention means that the nominee isn't chosen on the first ballot, it seems virtually impossible, since (presumably) every delegate at the convention (pledged or unpledged) will vote for either Clinton or Obama, one of them has to win a majority.....unless they actually think that the 25 or so Edwards delegates are going to have to break the deadlock.

They may be considering that such close numbers mean, at the urging of superdelegates and other party leaders, either Clinton or Obama, or perhaps both, will step aside for a compromise candidate endorsed by the standing-aside candidate's delegates and most of the superdelegates. (Say, for example, the two are tied, but Obama stands aside in favor of Al Gore, and the superdelegates flock from Clinton to Gore. Gore's not a likely choice for this at all, but he's a good example.)

I can't imagine that such a thing would happen.  Even if there's an outside chance that it would happen, there's no way the chances of it happening are anywhere near as high as 1 in 4.  I mean, even if the primaries don't resolve things and the attention shifts to the superdelegates, are the superdelegates really going to say "Let's make things even more messy by adding a third candidate into the mix...one who wasn't even on the ballot in any of those primaries we just had in which millions of people thought they were voting for our nominee."

[muon2]

I still don't understand how a brokered convention is supposed to happen, unless "the nominee is decided by the superdelegates" counts as a brokered convention.  But if a brokered convention means that the nominee isn't chosen on the first ballot, it seems virtually impossible, since (presumably) every delegate at the convention (pledged or unpledged) will vote for either Clinton or Obama, one of them has to win a majority.....unless they actually think that the 25 or so Edwards delegates are going to have to break the deadlock.

They may be considering that such close numbers mean, at the urging of superdelegates and other party leaders, either Clinton or Obama, or perhaps both, will step aside for a compromise candidate endorsed by the standing-aside candidate's delegates and most of the superdelegates. (Say, for example, the two are tied, but Obama stands aside in favor of Al Gore, and the superdelegates flock from Clinton to Gore. Gore's not a likely choice for this at all, but he's a good example.)

According to Intrade a brokered convention is defined as follows.

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I would be very surprised if the unpledged superdelegates allowed it to go to multiple ballots. I would think that they would in effect broker the outcome before the first ballot. In that case there would not be a "brokered" convention.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, exactly.  There's just no way this is going to go beyond the first ballot.  All the delegates will vote for either Clinton or Obama and one of them will win a majority.  And in fact, I would expect that all the superdelegates will declare their allegiance well before the convention, so that the outcome becomes pre-ordained at least a couple of months in advance (otherwise the nominee has only two months to run a GE campaign).

Which means, bet against Dem. brokered convention on Intrade.  It's free money.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama takes a narrow lead.

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Obama 51.1
Clinton 48.5
Gore 1.0
Edwards 0.2

New Mexico
Clinton 50
Obama 30


REPUBLICANS

Nomination
McCain 93.5
Romney 2.5
Huckabee 2.1
Paul 1.2
Guiliani 1.1
Thompson 1.0
Rice 0.3
Gingrich 0.2

[Middle-aged Europe]

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Obama 51.1
Obama 48.5

OMG, Michelle entered the race!

[J. J.]

Give it another 1-2 weeks and buy Clinton.