New Tradesports rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama, Richardson up, Gore down

Giuliani gains, Thompson goes down, causing Rudy to take the #1 spot. Romney and Paul also gain. A lot of the minor candidates go down, particularly Hagel and Huckabee, who once had much higher odds.

Democrats
Clinton 49.5
Obama 30.6
Gore 9.3
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 32.5
Thompson 30.4
Romney 23.2
McCain 8.9
Paul 2.6
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From a financial perspective, I say Romney is WAY undervalued at 20.  I don't think I'd risk a bet on Thompson or Giuliani, though.

Selling McCain at 10 seems like another pretty surefire bet.

[Likely Voter]

From a financial perspective, I say Romney is WAY undervalued at 20.  I don't think I'd risk a bet on Thompson or Giuliani, though.

Selling McCain at 10 seems like another pretty surefire bet.

selling McCain at 0.1 would be a surefire bet

I am thinking of Buying some Romney  almost a 5/1 odds seems like good money and I still think he will in the top two coming out of January with either Rudy or Fred being the other one.

I am curious...has anyone here bought in on any 'stocks' at tradesports

if so what do you own and where did you buy it at?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From a financial perspective, I say Romney is WAY undervalued at 20.  I don't think I'd risk a bet on Thompson or Giuliani, though.

Selling McCain at 10 seems like another pretty surefire bet.

selling McCain at 0.1 would be a surefire bet

I am thinking of Buying some Romney  almost a 5/1 odds seems like good money and I still think he will in the top two coming out of January with either Rudy or Fred being the other one.

I am curious...has anyone here bought in on any 'stocks' at tradesports

if so what do you own and where did you buy it at?

I played around with it a bit last year.  I bought GOP to win ME when it was around 10, and stupidly never sold it, even when it got almost up to 50, and similarly bought in to Tom Kean when he was unrealistically low—and again, I never sold it.  But all it all worked out—I hedged my losing bets, mostly on Republicans, by picking up Dems to Control Senate back when it was at, like, ten.

Because I thought the odds were maybe twice that.  I completely forgot I even held the position until after the election.  Ka-ching.

[© tweed]

Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 33.3
Gore 8.5
Edwards 5.1
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 35.0 (way ahead of both his bid & offer for some reason)
Thompson 34.0
Romney 22.4
McCain 7.8
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[jimrtex]

Republicans
Giuliani 35.0 (way ahead of both his bid & offer for some reason)

There were a bunch of shares traded at the Thursday close over a range of 31.5 to 35.0, with most towards the lower end.

If you look at the number of shares bid and asked, there are large numbers of  Bid from 31.3 or lower, and large number of Ask at 34.3 or higher, with little in between.  If you want to buy 7 shares (that is only around $25), you would have to buy the 7th at 34.3.

So maybe you had someone come in with a little more monay and buy everything between 31.5 and going up to 35 (this would be a few $100).

And then it looks like some other folks saw the opportunity and started making offers a bit below 35 (down to 34.3), but no one is buying.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 33.3
Gore 8.5
Edwards 5.1
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 35.0 (way ahead of both his bid & offer for some reason)
Thompson 34.0
Romney 22.4
McCain 7.8
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

Er, Boss, suppose you're a wealthy (inherited) liberal pseudoRepublican who supports Giuliani.

You've already maxed out your legal contributions to his campaign.

You cann't legally go out and buy advertising for him.

You notice that over the past six weeks he's been dropping in most polls.

So, you go out and "buy" him some good news by dropping some money at Intrade to make him look good.

[© tweed]

McCain is down to 4.0 in the last transaction.  Really quite amazing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ouch@anyone who bought McCain stock early on. OUCH.

[Verily]

We must preserve this moment in McCain's collapse:

F. Thompson 34.0
Giuliani 31.5
Romney 22.0
McCain 4.0
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.0
Others <1

Clinton's at the lowest she's been in a while, too, and Obama the highest (impending fundraising numbers?):

Clinton 47.6
Obama 33.3
Gore 8.6
Edwards 5.1
Richardson 2.7
Others <1

[Sensei]

It looks like Paul might pass McCain.

[SPC]

It looks like Paul might pass McCain.

You do not know how happy I am.  etc. etc. etc.

[Likely Voter]

it might be worth dropping some bucks on Gore....a longshot but with 10 shares for 80 bucks paying off 1000 bucks it is worth it

[Eraserhead]

It looks like Paul might pass McCain.

That is beyond strange.

[Eraserhead]

I would expect Gore to go up quite a bit if there is any truth to this latest bit of news regarding him.

[Verily]

McCain has rebounded somewhat to 6.8.

Right now, McCain and Edwards are both very close to their all-time campaign lows. Obama and Thompson are both near their all-time campaign highs. Romney is also near his all-time high. Of the major candidates, only Giuliani and Clinton are not near records (although Clinton is near her lowest in 2007).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Last Q2 update:

Obama goes up a bit to hit a new record high.

Romney sinks a bit. McCain utterally tanks. Several months ago he was around 50%. Those days are over. Paul has over half of McCain. The betters figured out that maybe a single black woman isn't going to be the Republican  nominee.

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 34.3
Gore 8.9
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 34.6
Thompson 34.0
Romney 20.1
McCain 5.2
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 0.8
Hagel 0.6
J. Bush 0.6
Rice 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[SPC]

McCain utterally tanks. Several months ago he was around 50%. Those days are over. Paul has over half of McCain.

We will, we will, rock you!
Rock you!
We will, we will, rock you!
Rock you!

[Verily]

Paul was briefly ahead of McCain. Obama has reached a new record high, Romney is declining and Paul has reached a new peak, presumably all on fundraising numbers.

Clinton 45.0
Obama 34.3
Gore 8.8
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 2.3
Others <1

Thompson 34.6
Giuliani 34.3
Romney 19.2
McCain 4.0
Paul 3.3
Gingrich 2.1
Others <1

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Last Q2 update:

Obama goes up a bit to hit a new record high.

Romney sinks a bit. McCain utterally tanks. Several months ago he was around 50%. Those days are over. Paul has over half of McCain. The betters figured out that maybe a single black woman isn't going to be the Republican  nominee.

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 34.3
Gore 8.9
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 34.6
Thompson 34.0
Romney 20.1
McCain 5.2
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 0.8
Hagel 0.6
J. Bush 0.6
Rice 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

My favorite part is that the favorite candidate of talk-radio host Laura Ingraham, Duncan Hunter, is behind not just one or two, but five fictional candidates who never had any intention of seeking the GOP nomination!

I'll buy 20 shares of Dean Barkley to win the GOP nomination for $0.03 each, please.

[Eraserhead]

Did Paul's fundraising go well this quater?

[SPC]

Did Paul's fundraising go well this quater?

I heard he was supposed to raise $4-5 million.

[Eraserhead]

Did Paul's fundraising go well this quater?

I heard he was supposed to raise $4-5 million.

Not too bad.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh man, watching Paul beat McCain in Iowa would be so hilarious.

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade has added a new market for betting on the odds that each candidate will drop out before Dec. 31st.  The only candidate for which there's actually been a transaction is McCain, and they put the odds of a dropout for him at 40%.  But here are the "ask" prices right now:

Clinton 10
Dodd 50
Edwards 50
Giuliani 10
Huckabee 70
McCain 40
Obama 10
Richardson 30
Romney 10